What are the Packers playoff chances, odds and tiebreakers to consider with three games left in NFL season?

The Packers playoff chances are still really quite bad. But are we saying there's a chance ...?

If you wanted a percentage chance that the Green Bay Packers make the 2022 playoffs, you'd still have to go with a small number. ESPN Analytics assesses the Packers' playoff chances at 12.2%

But don't let anyone tell you the odds, right?

So what has to happen for Green Bay (6-8) to pull off a miracle? For the sake of argument, let's assume the Packers win their final three games of the year and close at 9-8.

We already know Green Bay can't win the NFC North and can't catch the Cowboys for one of the three wild-card spots, so there are only two possible spots available, both wild-card slots currently held by the Giants (8-5-1) and Commanders (7-6-1).

Additionally, the Seahawks (7-7) and Lions (7-7) rank ahead of the Packers. The Panthers, Saints and Falcons are all 5-9, but since we're assuming the Packers win the rest of their games, those teams can't catch Green Bay in our scenario.

The Packers close the year in Miami (8-6), and at home against Minnesota (11-3) and Detroit (7-7). If they run the table, what else has to happen? Let's consider the contenders.

New York Giants (8-5-1)

Teams to face: at Minnesota (11-3), vs. Indianapolis (4-9-1), at Philadelphia (13-1)

Plain and simple, the Giants must lose all three of their remaining games to finish behind the Packers.

This is a decently tough schedule, but Philadelphia is a full two games ahead of the No. 2 seed in the NFC and it seems extremely likely that the Eagles will have their playoff fate locked up by the time the season finale rolls around, meaning the Eagles could be resting most of their starters. It would require a pretty big collapse for the Giants to tumble.

Washington Commanders (7-6-1)

Teams to face: at San Francisco (10-4), vs. Cleveland (6-8), vs. Dallas (10-4)

Like the Giants, Washington has a reasonably tough schedule remaining but must lose two of its final three games for the Packers to pass the Commanders. It would behoove the Packers if those losses came in the next two weeks; the Cowboys are on the doorstep of locking into the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs (the best record for any non-division winner), and that means Green Bay can't expect Dallas to be going all-out in the finale.

Green Bay doesn't want a tie, either. If Washington finishes 1-1-1, the Commanders will have an 8-7-2 record, which would match the same winning percentage as the 9-8 Packers, and then Washington finishes ahead of Green Bay thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Seattle Seahawks (7-7)

Teams to face: at Kansas City (11-3), vs. New York Jets (7-7), vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-10)

In addition to needing either Washington or the Giants to torpedo, the Packers need the Seahawks to lose once more, which would mean Seattle can do no better than 9-8. In our scenario, the 9-8 Packers would finish 7-5 in NFC games, and Seattle already has six NFC losses, so the Packers would win on that tiebreaker.

Detroit Lions (7-7)

Teams to face: at Carolina (5-9), vs. Chicago (3-11), at Green Bay (6-8)

Remember the Packers win out in our scenario, so that means they beat the Lions in the season finale, and the best Detroit can do is tie Green Bay at 9-8. Let's consult the tiebreakers!

First tiebreaker: Head to head. Even Steven (1-1 split).

Second tiebreaker: NFC North record. Both would finish 4-2 in our win-out scenario.

Third tiebreaker: Common games. Detroit's schedule includes Philadelphia, Washington, Minnesota, New England, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, the Giants and Buffalo and the Jets. The Lions are 5-6 in those games and would finish 6-6 in our scenario. The Packers are likewise 4-6 and would move to 6-6.

Fourth tiebreaker: NFC record. The teams would be tied in our scenario where both finish 9-8.

Fifth tiebreaker: Strength of victory. This fluctuates week to week. If we calculate as much as we can, Green Bay would hold the narrowest of margins, a mark of 45.99% win percentage for the opponents it has beaten (or will beat), while Detroit sits at 45.32%.

In other words, sure the Packers might have the projected tiebreaker advantage for now, but it would be for the best if the Lions took one more loss aside from Green Bay.

Hold up, how did you get those numbers?

Those figures assume some things. If you check out the current strength-of-victory on ESPN's playoff standings, you'll see Green Bay at .393 for strength of victory and Detroit at .500. So how did we get numbers that are much closer together (with Green Bay in the lead, no less)?

Those percentages on ESPN are the current win-loss percentages of the teams those squads have already beaten. But remember, to get this far into our scenario, the Lions and Packers finish 9-8; otherwise this tiebreaker doesn't even matter. That means Green Bay defeats teams still on the schedule with good records (Miami, Minnesota and Detroit).

So the strength-of-victory percentages we calculate already assume the Packers and Lions closed with 9-8 records, and they count the records of teams they haven't yet played. Those teams (like Miami and Minnesota) also get credited with a loss on their ledger for a theoretical loss to Green Bay or Detroit.

Not only that, but some upcoming games can be chalked up as washes. For example, Jacksonville and the Jets meet in Thursday Night Football this week. The Lions have beaten both those teams, so either way you slice it, Detroit will get a 1-1 added to their strength-of-victory ledger. Four upcoming NFL games feature this quirk for Green Bay or Detroit, so we included those in the calculation, as well.

The Bears also have a game that doesn't matter against Buffalo because it counts the same either way for Green Bay or Detroit. In our scenario, both teams have beaten Chicago twice. Same with Minnesota against the Giants (although the Packers prefer the Vikings win to keep the possibility of catching the Giants in play).

Basically there's a list of 21 games over the final three weeks that will impact these numbers. It could absolutely go either way. Don't expect these two teams to tie in strength-of-victory with the Lions having two ties on their ledger here, but for what it's worth, the next tiebreaker is strength of overall schedule.

Aside from cheering against the teams above, what should Packers fans be hoping for?

If you want some next-level cheering priorities, pull for teams that the Packers have beaten (or will beat, theoretically) that aren't also somewhere on Detroit's schedule (Tampa Bay, New England, Dallas, Miami and the Rams ... all of whom had losses this past week. Thanks, guys).

Cheer against teams the Lions beat or will beat (Washington and the Giants, whom you're already cheering against, plus Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina).

Well, don't cheer against Carolina this week, since the Lions are playing the Panthers, and if the Panthers win that game, this tiebreaker won't even matter. You will have read the last two sections for nothing!

What if the Lions, Seahawks and Packers all finish at 9-8?

The first thing that happens here is a tiebreaker to determine one team from each division, so the Packers would theoretically beat out the Lions for that honor (based on the aforementioned strength of victory), then go head-to-head with the Seahawks and win that tiebreaker. Therefore, this is an OK situation for the Packers assuming the current strength-of-victory tiebreaker with Detroit holds up.

Here's the bottom line of what the Packers need

In our scenario, the Packers win out and finish 9-8. Three of these four additional things must happen.

• The Giants lose all three of their remaining games (fat chance).

• The Commanders lose two of their three remaining games (and no ties, either).

• The Seahawks lose once more.

• The Lions either lose once more or wind up with a worse strength-of-victory mark than the Packers (which is tenuous but currently favors Green Bay).

Dougherty: Christian Watson has single-handedly changed the Green Bay Packers' outlook for 2023

More:How Packers rookie Christian Watson found 'poetic justice' with one backflip, launching his career

Can the Packers get eliminated this week?

Of course. All it takes is a Green Bay loss and a win by the Commanders, guaranteeing that seven NFC teams will finish the season with a better record than the Packers.

Our subscribers make this reporting possible. Please consider supporting local journalism by subscribing to the Journal Sentinel at jsonline.com/deal.

DOWNLOAD THE APP: Get the latest news, sports and more

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Here are the Green Bay Packers' playoff chances, odds and tiebreakers