Packers playoff hopes get a massive boost from Cleveland. This is how Green Bay gets in now.
The Green Bay Packers got a New Year's Day gift from the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, with a win over Washington that greatly simplified Green Bay's playoff path.
A must-win victory over Minnesota by the Packers simplified it even more.
Now, if Green Bay wins its final game of the year, it's going to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Green Bay will be eliminated if it fails to win its game against Detroit on Sunday.
Washington fell to 7-8-1 and has been eliminated from the playoffs, while the Lions (8-8) and Seattle Seahawks (8-8) remain the other two challengers for that seventh and final NFC bid.
Can Green Bay still finish higher than the No. 7 seed in the NFC?
No. With a win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, the New York Giants (9-6-1) are guaranteed a better record than the Packers, meaning Green Bay cannot catch the Giants or Dallas Cowboys for a wild-card spot, nor the Vikings for the NFC North. Thus, only the seventh and final NFC spot is available to the Packers.
Could the Packers still get into the playoffs with an 8-9 record?
No. With a loss this week, the Packers would finish behind Detroit (and possibly Seattle, as well) and miss the playoffs.
Could the Packers still host a playoff game at Lambeau?
No. As the seventh seed, Green Bay would be ruled out from hosting any playoff games this season.
Who would the Packers likely face in the playoffs?
Green Bay would meet the No. 2 seed, and right now that's San Francisco, which would cement no worse than the No. 2 spot with a win in the finale over Arizona. If the 49ers lose and the Vikings beat the Bears in the final game of the season, then Minnesota would leapfrog the 49ers for that spot.
But if the 49ers win, they could also rise up to the No. 1 spot if Philadelphia loses to the Giants. That would send Green Bay to Lincoln Financial Field to face the Eagles in the opening round. Hmmm, a late-season Packers run to make the playoffs followed by a playoff opener in Philadelphia? Where have we heard about that before?
How about this scenario? If the 49ers win, Eagles lose and Cowboys win over Washington, then San Francisco gets the No. 1 seed and Dallas bypasses Philadelphia for the NFC East title and it's the Cowboys grabbing the No. 2 spot. The Packers ... would open the playoffs at AT&T Stadium against Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys.
No matter what happens, Green Bay will open the playoffs on the road.
These are the matchups that matter:
Arizona (4-12) at San Francisco (12-4)
Minnesota (12-4) at Chicago (3-13)
New York Giants (9-6-1) at Philadelphia (13-3)
Dallas (12-4) at Washington (7-8-1)
Put it this way: If we assume each win is a 50/50 proposition, then there's a 50% chance the Packers would face the 49ers, a 25% chance it'd be Minnesota, a 12.5% chance they'd face Philly and a 12.5% chance they'd face Dallas.
Will Detroit get the playoff spot if it beats Green Bay next week?
It's possible. Detroit also needs Seattle to lose its finale against the Los Angeles Rams, since the Seahawks have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions. The Packers have the tiebreaker edge over Seattle based on NFC record, so Seattle's game does not concern the Packers.
What about a Packers tie?
A tie also means elimination. If the Packers tie Detroit, then the two teams finish with identical records, and Detroit holds a tiebreaker based on the 1-0-1 head-to-head ledger. Seattle would get the playoff spot with a win, and the Lions would get the spot with a Seahawks loss.
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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Packers have clear playoff path after Sunday's outcomes
