Packers vs. Bears: 5 things to watch and a prediction

The Green Bay Packers (9-3) won’t have the opportunity to clinch the NFC North title on Sunday night, but the primetime showdown with the rival Chicago Bears (4-8) still represents a chance for Matt LaFleur’s team to take another big step towards a third straight division crown.

With a win over the Bears and either a Vikings loss or Packers win next week, Green Bay would be the NFC North champion in 2021.

The Packers will be facing a desperate opponent. The Bears have lost six of the last seven games and need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. But the one-sided dominance of this rivalry is hard to ignore: The Packers have won 20 of the last 23 matchups with the Bears.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ matchup with the Bears on “Sunday Night Football.”

Protecting 12

(AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in passer rating from clean pockets this season, emphasizing how important it will be for the offensive line to keep him protected on Sunday night. The Bears are without All-Pro Khalil Mack, but Robert Quinn has an NFC-high 12 sacks in 11 games, Trevis Gipson is a productive young player on the edge and the interior of the defensive line has veteran rushers capable of collapsing the pocket. Keeping them blocked up will put Rodgers and the Packers in a great position to score a bunch of points against an overmatched secondary. In the first meeting, Rodgers threw a pair of touchdown passes from clean pockets, but the Bears found ways of disrupting him early in the game, ending a pair of possessions with sacks.

Speed up the rookie

(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Nothing makes a young quarterback like Justin Fields more uncomfortable than consistent pressure. The cumulative effect of consistent pressure speeds up the game and makes everything more difficult to process for an inexperienced passer. Fields is completing 45 percent of passes and averaging only 5.8 yards per attempt when pressured this season, and he’s been under pressure on almost 40 percent of dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. The formula for the Packers defense isn’t a complicated one: Mix up coverages pre-snap and win up front. Fields made several questionable decisions under pressure in the first meeting.

Eyes on Montgomery and Mooney

(AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

Running back David Montgomery didn’t play back in Week 6, and he’s banged up entering the rematch, but his ability to produce yards as a runner and receiver might be the Bears’ best chance to consistently move the ball on Sunday night. He’s a grinder between the tackles, and the Bears always have him as a checkdown option. In the passing game, speedster Darnell Mooney is the one to watch. He caught a touchdown pass in the first meeting, and he has big-play speed and ability. The Packers have given up a few more vertical shots down the field in recent weeks, so putting the lid back on the top of the defense will be important with Mooney and Justin Fields’ big arm coming to Green Bay. If Montgomery and Mooney are contained, it’s hard to envision the Bears scoring enough points to win.

Big night for 28 and 33?

Could this be a game that the Packers get both A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones heavily involved? Dillon has five straight games with at least 75 total yards, and Jones should be close to 100 percent after dealing with a knee injury. A December game in primetime at Lambeau Field always screams out for tough, physical football. Can the Packers control the game at the line of scrimmage and get chunk plays in the run game? The offense’s running back duo combined for 169 total yards in the first meeting, and both Dillon and Jones had a run over 20 yards. Expect them both to see plenty of the football on Sunday night.

Find the slot CB

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending slot receivers this season, and both Kindle Vildor and Xavier Crawford have struggled to prevent completions and big plays. The Packers won’t have Randall Cobb, but Sunday night is still a great opportunity to create mismatches with the team’s various options in the slot. Expect Davante Adams to move inside, and both Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown should get chances to exploit Vildor or Crawford inside. Jaylon Johnson is a good player, and Artie Burns had a decent game as a perimeter corner last week against Arizona, but the Bears secondary has an obvious weak link.

Prediction: Packers 30, Bears 17 (6-6)

I’ve gotten so many predictions wrong this season simply by allowing the never-ending injuries to key players to convince me of an impending defeat. Not this week, and not the rest of the way. This is a tough, deep and resilient football team, and it’s only going to get healthier over the course of this month. A divisional opponent should never be overlooked, but this is a game the Packers should win comfortably, especially in December at Lambeau Field. The formula here should look familiar: win the turnover battle, win the line of scrimmage and let Aaron Rodgers handle the rest. The guess here is that the Packers cruise to another season sweep of the Bears.

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