Packers vs. Cardinals: 5 things to watch and a prediction

One of the biggest games of the 2021 NFL season is Thursday night at Stadium Farm Stadium in Arizona, where the Green Bay Packers (6-1) and Arizona Cardinals (7-0) are gearing up for a primetime showdown between top NFC contenders.

The winner will likely be viewed nationally as the favorite to be the No. 1 seed in the conference after eight weeks.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction:

The Rondale Moore test

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The Packers have been a terrific tackling team through the first seven games, led by the near-perfect efforts from De’Vondre Campbell and Adrian Amos. Cardinals slot receiver Rondale Moore is going to put the Packers’ tacklers to the ultimate test. The rookie is nothing short of dynamic with the ball in his hands. He has 304 receiving yards so far this season, and 266 have come after the catch, per Pro Football Focus. Only three receivers have more yards after the catch this season. Moore is averaging a staggering 10.2 yards after the catch per catch, with an average depth of target of 2.1 yards. The Cardinals are getting him the ball quick and letting him go to work. The Packers – and especially the defensive backs – better be ready to be tackle Moore when he gets the ball in space on Thursday night.

No Watt, clean pockets?

(AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

The Cardinals were dealt a significant blow on Wednesday with news that J.J. Watt would miss Thursday night’s game. Watt, an elite interior defender, leads the Cardinals in total pressures, and he has the third-highest pass-rush win rate among defensive linemen in the NFL. The Packers interior offensive line is a weak point, so not facing Watt is a big deal. Will no Watt mean more clean pockets for Aaron Rodgers? The Packers quarterback is completing 78 percent of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt from clean pockets, with a passer rating of 128.5. Only Russell Wilson has a higher passer rating from clean pockets this season. If the Packers can protect Rodgers, the offense has a chance to score a lot of points even without Davante Adams.

First and second down

(AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

This game might be won or lost on first and second down when the Packers have the football. If the offense is struggling on early downs and consistently falling into third-and-long, the Cardinals – arguably the best situational team in football – will probably feast. Arizona is first in the NFL in third-down defense at 28.8 percent (the top defense last season finished at 31.2 percent), with four interceptions and 15 sacks. Throw in the crowd noise and the expected energy inside the stadium, and third down would become a nightmare scenario worthy of the Halloween season for the Packers on Thursday night. Getting efficient gains on the ground and completions in the passing game are must-dos for the offense on first and second down.

Survive the surge

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Both Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur talked this week about surviving the early portion of the game against a great team on the road. State Farm Stadium is going to be rocking to open the primetime contest. Can the Packers, after a long flight to Phoenix just four days after playing a football game, find the necessary energy to handle the expected surge? Back in the regular season in 2015, the Cardinals blew the doors off the visiting Packers early and Mike McCarthy’s team never recovered in a 38-8 loss. LaFleur’s team just needs to get settled into the game, and a big play or two early would certainly help. One worry: It’s often taken the Packers offensive line a few series to get settled into games recently. There will be no grace period on Thursday night. They need to be ready to go right away.

Finding a way

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Not having Davante Adams or Allen Lazard certainly complicates the path ahead for the Packers offense. Can Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur find creative ways of moving the ball without two starting receivers? Expect more opportunities for Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown and possibly even rookie Amari Rodgers, but more will also be expected of running back Aaron Jones and tight end Robert Tonyan in the passing game. Maybe the Packers can get production out of “Pony” personnel with Jones and A.J. Dillon on the field together. Rodgers offers gadget play potential, especially with the uptick in usage on jet sweep motion lately. St. Brown could be the dark horse. Rodgers likes him, and he’s trusted him in a handful of big spots over the last two weeks. Maybe this is his breakout game.

Prediction: Cardinals 30, Packers 24 (5-2)

This certainly feels like a spot where everyone will count the Packers out but the team rallies around the adversity of the situation and plays a terrific football game. J.J. Watt missing the contest makes picking the Packers really tempting, but Matt LaFleur’s team is still facing a massive mountain to climb. No Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari or Davante Adams. On the road. Short week. A terrific opponent with a terrific quarterback. I think the Cardinals win, but I also think the Packers will have late chances to steal the game, and the performance overall will be both uplifting and potentially valuable down the road. Remember when the Packers went into Atlanta in 2010 and nearly beat the Falcons, and then came back full of confidence a few months later and ransacked the place during the playoffs? This is a great measuring stick game for the short-handed Packers. A win would be great, but going the distance with a top NFC contender in their own house without four All-Pros and several other starters would also be impressive.

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