Panthers mailbag: Which QB prospect will maximize the value of a rookie contract?

Pro Days are over and Top 30 visits will be starting soon. The Panthers will be busy over the next few weeks organizing their draft boards and hosting prospects.

With more change headed to Carolina in the form of new draft picks, The Observer opens up the weekly mailbag to give clarity on the topics the fan base cares about.

Here is a handful of notable questions from the latest mailbag on Twitter:

Eric Buck asks: Are the Panthers considering which QB allows the best opportunity to realize the value of a top QB on a rookie contract? If Scott Fitterer is already putting it out there that Bryce Young is at the NFL level mentally, that makes him the best guy for competing on a rookie contract, right?

Great question, Eric. I appreciate your attention to detail.

First, Carolina has made it clear it wants to build around a rookie quarterback prospect. In November, The Observer reported owner David Tepper preferred paying a rookie quarterback contract rather than rostering a veteran with massive guarantees. After hiring Frank Reich, the new head coach and general manager Scott Fitterer talked extensively about “stabilizing” the team’s quarterback room through the draft. Finally, acquiring the No. 1 pick via a blockbuster trade with the Bears solidified the Panthers’ long-term quarterback plans.

From what I’ve gathered, NFL evaluators agree both Young and C.J. Stroud will be ready to start Week 1. If either is the Panthers’ pick then the team is planning on competing and building a team around the life of a rookie contract. But forecasting the first few years is as important as anticipating a quarterback’s second contract.

Young’s lack of size raises concerns about his NFL longevity. Whereas Stroud will likely be an NFL quarterback for a decade or more. This is really a question about true ceilings versus safe floors.

From an evaluation standpoint, Young is a better football player than Stroud right now. To your point, he’d likely have a better rookie season. Young also is better equipped to elevate the Panthers’ mediocre receiving core considering how he carried Alabama this past season compared to Stroud, who benefited from a robust pass-catching group and superior offensive line at Ohio State.

Finally, maximizing the value of a rookie contract is every front office’s goal. Trevor Lawerence (Jaguars), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Zach Wilson (Jets), Trey Lance (49ers), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), and Justin Herbert (Chargers) count for less than $10 million against the cap this season. Herbert’s rookie contract is the best deal in football, carrying a $6.64 million cap hit.

Some of those teams listed above (Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Los Angeles) nailed their first-round quarterback selections and are playoff contenders because of it. Others (New York Jets, 49ers and Dolphins) have contingency plans in place but were still able to build talented rosters thanks to spending cheap at quarterback.

Jeff S asks: Based off everything you’ve heard and know so far, who’s the pick at #1 for Carolina, and where do they go at #39?

I am confident either Stroud or Young will be the No. 1 pick. However, I don’t think the Panthers have reached a consensus on either player. Here is why.

During the season, NFL evaluators agreed Young was the consensus top prospect available. That narrative slightly shifted following Stroud’s Peach Bowl performance. But many still viewed Young as the No. 1 pick.

Most NFL coaches do not start their draft preparation until after the season. That evaluation process started even later for Carolina, considering it took a while for Reich to finalize his staff. Then free agency took priority for a few weeks. Once the Panthers started their pro day tour, visiting all four top quarterbacks, the team started honing in on its search by merging the collective thoughts of the scouting and coaching departments.

That collaborative process — between coaches, scouts and ownership — will continue until a collective decision is made. Reich and Fitterer said that the team will use all the time it needs to be as thorough as possible. Time is on the Panthers’ side thanks to trading for the No. 1 pick.

The Panthers’ options at No. 39 are also quite intriguing. Whether the Panthers trade down, select a defensive player or keep adding to their offense, the top of the second round is full of possibilities. I detailed those options in this story.

Mr. Everything asks: The Panthers just signed veteran LB Kamu Grugier-Hill. What does this signing mean for the position, and what other moves — if any — can we expect to be made before the draft this month?

It’s difficult to gauge what role Kamu Grugier-Hill will have on the team. Last season he appeared in nine games (zero starts) with the Cardinals before he joined Houston and started in six straight games. He played a career-high 85% of the Texans defensive snaps.

Prior to 2022, Grugier-Hill was a special teams ace with the Eagles from 2016 to 2019. He won a Super Bowl with Reich and Panthers running backs/assistant head coach Duce Staley was also part of the Eagles’ coaching staff. New vice president of player personnel Adrian Wilson also spent time with Grugier-Hill in Arizona. Meaning, the Panthers are familiar with what Grugier-Hill brings to the field and locker room.

He’ll have an opportunity to contribute on special teams and as an off-ball linebacker opposite Shaq Thompson. His future will depend on who the Panthers draft, how well second-year linebacker Brandon Smith has progressed, and how he plays during OTAs and training camp.

The Panthers are likely done signing free agents as attention has shifted toward the draft. The team has to keep more than $10 million available in cap space for rookie signings as well.

Steven G asks: Who are we looking at DE opposite of Burns? We need someone now but if Burns gets hurt then you’re in a terrible spot.

The top of the second round is loaded with defensive end talent. Selecting a power-rushing defensive end with the No. 39 pick could finally land Carolina a worthy complement to Brian Burns.

Mazi Smith (Michigan), Tuli Tuipulotu (USC), Derick Hall (Auburn), Bryan Bresee (Clemson), Will McDonald (Iowa State), B.J. Ojulari (LSU), Fleix Anudike-Uzomah (Kansas State) and Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern) all have Round 2 or 3 grades, according to multiple NFL evaluators.

The Panthers will likely draft a defensive end (or two) in a few weeks, but there are a few in-house options the team likes, too. Second-year defensive end Amaré Barno earned high praise from Burns at the end of last season. Barno recorded his first career sack in Week 9 versus the Bengals. He played a career-high 17 snaps in Week 18 and sacked then-Saints quarterback Andy Dalton on a critical third-and-9 during the fourth quarter.

Carolina also re-signed defensive end Henry Anderson. Anderson appeared in 11 games and produced 18 tackles last year. The veteran defender was forced to miss six games after suffering what he called a “minor stroke” ahead of Week 8.

Though there are capable bodies behind Burns, an injury to the Pro Bowler would decimate a top-heavy Panthers pass rush unless the team finds a blue-chip talent at No. 39.