Panthers-Saints: Here’s what to expect in the Week 3 NFL matchup

The Panthers are facing a must-win game on Sunday against the Saints.

It’s only September but that’s the tax of losing to quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett (Browns) and Daniel Jones (Giants).

Or maybe the Panthers (0-2) actually lost to Browns kicker Cade York and former Panther-turned-Giant Graham Gano. Carolina is the first team in NFL history to allow a go-ahead 55-plus yard field in consecutive games.

For a collection of reasons (third-down inefficiency, fumbles, dropped interceptions, blown assignments, etc.) Carolina desperately needs a win.

According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, 98 teams have started 0-3 since 2002. Only one of them made the playoffs. Essentially, 0-3 is a death sentence.

But LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers were once down 3-1 in the NBA Finals. No team had ever come back from such a deficit until James pulled it off. The Panthers do not roster a generational talent like The King but the point remains. As Nike says, it’s only impossible until it happens.

Regardless, the Saints (1-1) present a real opportunity to win. Let’s break down some key matchups.

Completions and rushing attempts are key

The Panthers can run the ball.

Carolina ranks eighth in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), according to Football Outsiders. (DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.)

Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo said the team improved in Week 2 and must take another step on Sunday.

“We took a step last week. Now we take need to take another step,” McAdoo said. “We need to get the run game and the passing game clicking together and that’s when you have something.”

To accomplish that, Carolina must either improve its first- and second-down effectiveness or be better on third down.

The Panthers rank 31st in third-down conversion passes. That’s a product of being in too many third-and-longs.

An effective offense must string together between 51 and 55 completions plus rushing attempts. Through two games Carolina is averaging 36 completions plus rushing attempts per contest. That must change Sunday.

The Panthers slot receivers must catch balls across the middle. Whether it’s Shi Smith, Rashard Higgins, Terrace Marshall or Laviska Shenault, someone must start playing big in the slot.

Expect running back Christian McCaffrey to catch more passes. Mayfield said he missed check-down pass opportunities last week. He worked on going through his progressions at practice, which should naturally lead him to dump more balls off to McCaffrey.

Saints will challenge Carolina’s downfield pass defense

New Orleans feature three receivers unlike the Panthers have faced yet this season.

Rookie Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry and Micahel Thomas are a trio that can win running short, intermediate and deep routes. Olave is the deep threat — which quarterback Jameis Winston likes to target — while Landry works underneath and Thomas capitalizes in the red zone.

It’ll benefit Carolina if cornerback Donte Jackson is available. He been battling a hamstring injury all week. He suffered the injury late in Week 2 while chasing Giants receiver Sterling Shepard down the left sideline on a vertical route. After the play, Jackson slowed up, reached for his hamstring and dropped to a knee for a moment.

On Monday, Jackson said he considered himself “day-to-day.” He said he was fortunate the injury was not more severe as he heard a “pop.” Coach Matt Rhule said he is confident Jackson will play. He is questionable for the game.

Whether Jackson plays or not, expect Carolina to run a lot of zone coverage.

The Panthers’ defense does not have a turnover yet. That should change this week against Winston. He threw three interceptions against Tampa Bay last week.

Controlling the Saints rushing game and pressuring Winston will be key. Running back Alvin Kamara is one of the game’s best. New Orleans ranks fifth in rushing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Winston has been sacked 10 times in two games.

Saints kick returner could change game

Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro entered the season as a glaring question mark. He’s quickly established himself as a reliable scorer.

Pineiro has an important assignment this week, which is directional kicking the ball on kickoffs.

Saints returner Deonte Harty had gains of 32 and 33 yards last week. He’s explosive and capable of returning a kick for six points if the Panthers are not sound on special teams.