The ‘party of Andy’ goes all in for re-election. Is this a last stand for KY Democrats?

Fancy Farm is a place for novelty.

This year, Democrats went all in on a different kind of sign for Kentucky’s marquee political event. The hundreds who packed under the speakers’ pavilion to cheer on Democrats and drown out Republicans had a distinct prop: huge vertical signs that spelled out their candidate for governor’s first name from top to bottom: “A-N-D-Y.”

The signs not only underscored how Gov. Andy Beshear’s campaign is pitching its candidate – as an approachable, Mr. Rogers-esque trustworthy presence – but also the focus for all Kentucky Democrats this year: protecting the incumbent governor. Beshear’s popularity remains high despite Kentucky’s strong Republican leanings in federal and statehouse races, and his race against Republican nominee Attorney General Daniel Cameron is projected to be close.

A few hours before and a few miles down the road, Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams gave a speech that reflected that.

To a room full of more than two hundred fellow Republicans in West Kentucky’s Graves County, Secretary of State Michael Adams offered a warning: the Democrats are all in on Beshear’s re-election bid because they know he’s their last hope.

“The Democrats are facing extinction. They know that if we sweep for the first time in history, they are done. We have them in our sights and they know it,” Adams said. “They are highly motivated, they are raising money, they are walking neighborhoods — they’re doing everything. So we have to match their level of intensity.”

The zeal of Democrats for Beshear’s re-election can’t be denied. But it doesn’t come without its questioners on both sides of the political aisle.

While Beshear’s own ability to defy political gravity has deeply frustrated Kentucky Republicans and encouraged Democrats in-state and across the nation, some attribute his gravitational pull of attention and money in the state to the diminution of other Democrats in Kentucky.

Democrats’ stature in the legislature is historically bad and it’s bottomed out with Beshear atop the party. Less than seven years after losing the majority and nearly four years into Beshear’s governorship they claim 20 of the Kentucky House’s 100 seats. The minority in the Senate is relatively just as small. When it comes to lawmaking and crafting the state’s near-$16 billion budget, Republicans can all but ignore Beshear. Some are fearful that other Democrats down-ballot, or in future Kentucky races, won’t be able to ride Beshear’s “coattails” to important victories.

Is Beshear, whose family has been at the helm of the party for more than a decade, responsible for any of this? Can he turn things around if re-elected, and what happens if 2023 spells the “extinction” of Democrats that Adams warned of?

‘All in’ vs. ‘extremely frustrating’

In 2020, then flush with cash in part because of the excitement around U.S. Senate candidate Amy McGrath who later lost to Sen. Mitch McConnell in a landslide, the Kentucky Democratic Party contributed almost $2.1 million directly to campaigns for the state legislature. In the 2022 cycle, that figure fell to less than one-tenth of what it was: $160,000.

That said, KDP has chipped in to help fund an expensive legal battle against House and Congressional maps they claim were unconstitutionally gerrymandered and also funded candidate mail in the 2022 election through in-kind expenditures. Their in-kind contributions, which are in addition to direct contributions, to help legislative candidates fell from $2.56 million in 2020 to $317,000 in 2022.

Meanwhile, Beshear is bringing boatloads of cash into his and KDP’s campaign coffers. Beshear’s campaign had $7.4 million at its disposal by the end of the primary.

KDP donations – unlike campaigns, at $2,100, the maximum individual donation one can make to a state party is $15,000 – are largely understood as funding a machine controlled by Beshear. As Democratic political veterans including statewide officeholders like former attorney general Greg Stumbo and former auditor Adam Edelen will tell you, the party is the governor’s. Edelen said it’s traditionally been a “political vehicle” meant to serve the will of the incumbent governor.

“There’s no doubt that the Democratic governor has and still does control the way the party moves,” Stumbo said.

KDP Chair Colmon Elridge was recommended by Beshear and Executive Director Sebastian Kitchen moved over to that post from Beshear’s communications team.

Democrats see the money pouring into Beshear and pro-Beshear forces as a good thing. But for some, it’s also a stark reminder of how little has been invested into building legislative power since 2020.

Rebecca Blankenship, who made history as Kentucky’s first openly transgender elected official as a school board member in Berea, is a member of the Kentucky State Democratic Central Executive Committee and said she feels like the party is putting too many of its eggs in the Beshear basket and the decisions to do so are made unilaterally.

“The party governance structure is completely controlled by Governor Beshear and we’re really just a rubber stamp,” Blankenship said of the committee.

It feels that way for some on the outside looking in as well.

“From the get go, I have wondered if Beshear would be willing to spend any political capital trying to elect people to the legislature. It appears that he concluded there was no percentage in that because they’re so far from a majority. That, and his expenditure of political capital could lead to his own defeat,” Al Cross, a longtime observer of Kentucky politics and former political reporter at the Louisville Courier-Journal, said.

When asked about this, Beshear acknowledged that he’s “got duties related to the Democratic Party,” but said the vast majority of his time is spent “focused on being the best governor I can be day in and day out.”

He said redistricting played a role in the trend of Democratic numbers dwindling. He did not commit to trying to reverse it, though.

Some Democrats have argued that funding a redistricting legal battle was a more important than pouring more money into races that may not have swung in their favor given the maps. A circuit court judge agreed with the Democrats that the maps were gerrymandered to create a Republican advantage, but he did not find gerrymandering in and of itself to be unconstitutional.

Blankenship said the falling number of legislative Democrats has real stakes.

“It is extremely frustrating how many seats we’ve sacrificed in the legislature in order to fuel this year, which is probably going to be an out of the park victory. Almost certainly some of the worst policies passed in the legislature this year could have been avoided had the balance of power been a little bit towards the middle,” Blankenship said.

She referenced the recent passage of Senate Bill 150, which many activists said was one of the most “anti-trans” pieces of legislation passed in America.

A handful of controversial GOP-backed proposals – like the charter school funding bill and a bill increasing politicians’ control over local libraries – would potentially have failed to overcome Beshear vetoes if a few more Democrats were elected to the House.

Some Republicans agree that Beshear’s position makes little impact on the comings and goings of Republicans in Frankfort. In fact, they’ve grown so autonomous that it’s unclear what impact a Cameron win would have.

“Who wins this (governor’s) race, as far as what our legislature is gonna be doing for Kentucky, is irrelevant. If Daniel wins, certainly we’re looking for a great partnership and I think we can expedite what we’re doing to move Kentucky forward. If Beshear’s re-elected, it’d be just the same,” Sen. Stephen Meredith, R-Leitchfield, said.

Pulling together

Morgan Eaves, a former Democratic House candidate and strategist, sees the focus on Beshear as an investment. That investment, she said, is the most efficient way for Democrats to guarantee better policies and eventually uplift other Democrats statewide.

“So from a strategy standpoint, Andy Beshear is the Kentucky Democratic Party’s, and some would argue one of the National Democratic Party’s, best ambassadors. The decision to go all in on him is a smart one,” Eaves said.

Rep. Nima Kulkarni, D-Louisville, has never been in the majority. She was first elected to her bright-blue South End district in 2018 during a Democratic rebound wave that saw them hold a 39-person minority. In 2020, that fell sharply to 25 then to the current 20 in 2022.

Kulkarni understands the frustrations around both lack of attention and money to statehouse races.

“There’s frustration but there’s also strategy,” Kulkarni said. “If Governor Beshear wins re-election, he’s going to have a unique opportunity to build up that Democratic base.”

Anna Whites, a Democratic attorney who’s worked for KDP in the past, said that while she’d rather have a 50-50 legislature to stave off bad policy than a governor, a Beshear win is important and also more feasible than getting back in the statehouse where Democrats are “decades behind.”

Cross said that Democrats upset with Beshear’s gravitational pull, while they have a point, should pipe up this cycle.

“That future (without Beshear) is bleak – horribly bleak. They’re left with one significant officeholder in the state in the mayor of Louisville. That’s why Democrats need to be all-in for Beshear. All this grousing about money, they have a point but you’ve got to keep your eyes on the prize,” Cross said.

Looking ahead

How bleak is the future for Democrats, really?

Most agree that the severity depends on whether or not Beshear wins another term. If he goes, the winter would undoubtedly be longer and darker. There might be some silver linings, though.

“If Andy loses, there are no pillars left to rebuild. The long, dark winter would be rough. But out of that competition for what’s next and who leads it, something will arise,” Edelen said.

Edelen suggested that it might be wise, should Beshear lose, to rebuild the party around a platform that includes abortion rights and climate change activism and the energy of younger Democrats throughout the state.

“It’s easy to build a robust infrastructure around a specific election – it’s all hands on deck for governor – but after that it’s a real question,” Edelen said.

The specter of an “unshackled” legislature, he said, could also lead to backlash at the ballot box against candidates with an “R” by their name as opposed to just denying them constitutional amendments like Kentucky voters did with Amendment 1 and the anti-abortion rights Amendment 2 in 2022.

Opinions vary on which issues the party should embrace and shy away from. Unlike Edelen, Stumbo has long thought the party should moderate moving forward.

And factionalism – a relic of the rift between the Beshears and the Lundergans, as well other sub-divisions that proliferated when the Democrats had a larger role in running the state – persists. Former state representative and state central executive committee member Joe Graviss, of Versailles, said it’s got to go.

“It still exists and it’s a damn shame. You’re not only on the Titanic, you’re 80% underwater. It’s time to man the lifeboats, not fight for a chair,” Graviss said.

What is a lifeboat, in this instance?

Democrats could look to take over high-profile offices like the nonpartisan Lexington mayoral chair, which is now occupied by a moderate registered Republican in Linda Gorton, or the Lexington-centric Sixth Congressional seat held by U.S. Rep. Andy Barr — the last Democrat who ran against Barr was a perennial candidate who supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and who received no support from state-level elected Democrats.

Most observers with strong ties to the party agree where the predominant focus should go: building power across the state in lower-level local and state elections. It’s an easy thing to talk about, but another to do.

“If you want to help the Democrats, then the leaders lead and they get out in the state and they demonstrate with their shoe leather, their sweat equity and their example of working hard to help local candidates. You can’t do that from the Capitol annex or the governor’s mansion,” Graviss said.