Past the peak? COVID-19 omicron cases, hospitalizations drop in Erie County

David Bruce, Erie Times-News
·4 min read

COVID-19's omicron variant appears to be leaving Erie County almost as quickly as it arrived.

Daily case counts have dropped by almost half and COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined by 22% in the past week. Fewer people are lining up for COVID-19 tests and the amount of virus in Erie wastewater samples has fallen by about two-thirds since last week.

"We were up to 30 COVID-positive patients at the highest point (in January) and now we are down to 10, a 66% drop," said Marcus Babiak, Millcreek Community Hospital's chief operating officer. "We have also seen a 40% reduction in demand for COVID testing from our physician offices."

Hospital leaders are encouraged by the decline in cases and hospitalizations but are reluctant to say the peak has passed.

It's because they have seen temporary reductions in daily cases and hospitalizations, including just before Christmas when the delta surge was ending and the omicron surge had yet to arrive.

"I'm hesitant to say the peak has passed just because we have seen three significant declines in hospitalizations during this (delta/omicron) surge," said Emily Shears, vice president of quality for UPMC in northwestern Pennsylvania and New York. "I hope this is a sustained, downward trend."

Here is a look at the number of new COVID-19 cases reported by the Erie County Department of Health:

  • Jan. 10-16 — 3,777

  • Jan. 17-23 — 1,896

Number of Erie County residents hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health:

  • Jan. 17 — 146

  • Jan. 24 — 114

Will Erie County see a quick decline in cases?

If the omicron peak has finally passed, local health officials are not sure what happens next during a nearly two-year pandemic that has confounded many medical experts.

In 2021, COVID-19 case counts slowly declined through the late winter and spring before reaching a low in early summer.

But that doesn't mean the same thing will happen this year. More people are vaccinated and have been infected with COVID-19 than they were a year ago.

"The question to be answered is, how much natural immunity is out there to protect our community from future infection?" said Christopher Clark, D.O., Saint Vincent Hospital president. "I'm hopeful that once we are out of this surge, we will see fewer infections much sooner than we did last year at this time."

More: Erie hospitals battle staffing crisis as COVID-19 pandemic continues

How the omicron variant spreads also must be taken into consideration. The virus spreads much faster than previous variants, and reports from South Africa and the United Kingdom show case counts decline quickly about six weeks after omicron's arrival.

"We are seeing elsewhere that the omicron outbreak is declining faster than the delta variant and original strain did," said Howard Nadworny, M.D., Saint Vincent infectious diseases specialist and Erie County Department of Health adviser. "Rather than lingering over two more months, I think we will see many fewer cases by mid- to late February."

Nadworny doesn't believe the delta variant will return in significant numbers once the omicron surge has passed. The more likely threat would be a new variant that can spread easily, and evade natural and vaccine immunity.

The key, as it has been for more than a year, is to get more people vaccinated against COVID-19, Nadworny said. Just over 56% of all county residents are fully vaccinated and far fewer have received a booster shot.

"Even if the vaccine doesn't keep you from getting infected, it would likely keep you out of the hospital," Nadworny said. "Another outbreak of a variant that causes mild illness and few hospitalizations doesn't concern me as much as an outbreak with severe illness and mass hospitalizations."

County reports 16 COVID deaths over last two days

Though COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations have declined in recent days, Tuesday's news release from the county Health Department was a reminder that the pandemic continues.

Ten deaths due to COVID-19 complications were reported Tuesday, one day after six deaths were reported in the county. They increased the county's total to 711 deaths since the start of the pandemic.

More: Erie County set COVID-19 positive case record for January after just 16 days

Fourteen of those 16 deaths occurred in January, according to the county Health Department.

And while case counts have dropped by nearly half, the incidence rate remains nearly seven times higher than the 100 cases per 100,000 people considered the minimum for a high level of COVID-19 transmission, Nadworny said.

"Here is how I put this into perspective: We are in a major blizzard," Nadworny said. "We had been seeing it snow at the rate of four inches an hour and now it will snow at the rate of two inches an hour for the next two days.

"We are still seeing lots of people hospitalized and people are still dying due to COVID," Nadworny added. "But, yes, we appear to be past the peak."

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Erie County may have passed COVID-19 omicron peak in cases, hospitalizations