Pat Ryan declares win for 'positivity' in 19th Congressional race; What comes next

Pat Ryan stood before a jubilant crowd with a giant flag at his back and recapped themes from the congressional race he had just won, a seemingly low-stakes contest that took on national significance.

He warned democracy was "under threat" and ticked off examples, declaring after each that they were "not what America stands for." The Supreme Court's elimination of federal abortion rights. Children being killed with the type of weapons the U.S. Army veteran carried in combat. Cops getting assaulted by former President Donald Trump's supporters during the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

"This was a race about the future of this country," Ryan told supporters at the Senate Garage venue in Kingston at around midnight after the votes in the 19th Congressional District special election were tallied Tuesday. "And what I am so damn proud of is we stood up in this Hudson Valley and we said this is not what America stands for. We are better than that. And we are going to send a message that is going to echo across the entire country."

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Ryan, a Democrat, beat Republican Marc Molinaro by a narrow margin of 2.3 percentage points to fill former Rep. Antonio Delgado's seat for the last four months of his term, a race that was seen as a bellwether of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress in November.

When Ryan's work in the 19th district begins, and how soon Ulster County has a new county executive, remains to be revealed. Messages left for Ryan's campaign were not returned Wednesday. A representative for his office last week said it was unclear when he would be sworn in as a congressman and his temporary replacement leading Ulster, Deputy County Executive Johanna Contreras, takes over. A special election in Ulster would follow, with several candidates already expressing interest.

Ryan's victory kept New York's 19th Congressional District in Democratic hands and buoyed Democrats' hopes in what is historically a perilous time for the president's party.

Ryan had focused his campaign on abortion rights, framing the race as an early signal if a backlash against the Supreme Court’s overturning Roe v. Wade after nearly 50 years would drive voters to the polls. Molinaro, by contrast, campaigned largely on claims that Democratic policies fueled inflation and drove up crime.

The election, though, didn't end campaign season for either candidate. Both turn with no respite to their next congressional races in November against different opponents, with full two-year terms on the line.

Molinaro, in a statement issued around noon Wednesday, did not mention Ryan. He cited the timing of the election − held on the same day Democrats in the 18th and 19th district were visiting the polls for primary races − as a reason for the loss, and cast blame for that on the opposing party.

“While this is not the outcome we hoped for, we knew this was an uphill battle when Democrats scheduled this special election on the same day as two Democratic primaries with five candidates pushing their turnout," Molinaro said. He did not return direct inquiries.

Molinaro, who remains the Dutchess County executive, an office he has held for 11 years, also reiterated his displeasure with Gov. Kathy Hochul's statements in Kingston Monday indicating Republicans who "don't represent our values," should leave New York.

"Everyone in this district, in America, deserves a government that respects and serves them," he said.

Molinaro issued a nearly identical statement around 8 p.m. on social media, which he called his "full statement." He added a new first paragraph saying he called Ryan to congratulate him, and said he would "do my part to help in service to our shared community."

What comes next

Because district lines were redrawn this year, Ryan is running next in the 18th district, which consists of Orange County, most of Dutchess and the southern half of Ulster. The Gardiner Democrat notched a lopsided victory in a three-way primary for that race on Tuesday and will face Colin Schmitt, a Republican assemblyman from New Windsor, in the Nov. 8 general election.

Molinaro, meanwhile, is competing in the redrawn 19th district, which stretches from the Massachusetts border to the Finger Lakes region and no longer includes his home county of Dutchess. The Red Hook man's Democratic opponent is Josh Riley, an Ithaca attorney who won a primary against Rhinebeck resident Jamie Cheney Tuesday.

Contreras is one of three deputy county executives and Ryan's chosen successor. Under the county's charter, a special election must be held within 90 days to install a new county executive until Ryan's term in that office expires at the end of 2023.

Three Democrats have so far declared interest: former state Sen. Jen Metzger of Rosendale; Ulster County Comptroller March Gallagher; and Marc Rider, a deputy county executive. Under state election law and party rules, the nominee will be chosen by Ulster Democratic Committee members rather than through a primary. The committee is expected to hold a nominating convention next month and will decide with a majority vote.

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Ulster Republican Committee Chairman Tom Turco couldn't be reached to say if any Republicans have stepped forward.

Contreras was appointed deputy county executive in January, having previously worked in New York City’s Office of Management and Budget as the assistant director for education.

Ryan is an Ulster native who graduated from Kingston High School and West Point and served two combat tours in Iraq as an Army intelligence officer. He came in second in a seven-way Democratic primary for Congress in 2018 and was elected Ulster County executive the following year, a position he held for three years.

Now he will claim the congressional seat vacated by Delgado, the Rhinebeck Democrat who won the 2018 primary. Delgado resigned in May after being appointed lieutenant governor and is now Hochul's running mate as she seeks her first full term as governor.

Next elections approach

Both Ryan and Schmitt gave previews of the 18th District combat ahead.

Ryan, in his victory speech, called Schmitt a "direct threat to our freedom" and said he "cheered on insurrectionists" on Jan. 6 and supports a national abortion ban. "Remember this energy," he urged his supporters. "We answered the darkness, the divisiveness, the cynicism − with hope, with positivity, with people power. Remember that. We are going to take that into November."

Schmitt countered with a statement on Wednesday that declared Ryan's "radical ideology" was "out of touch" with the values of Hudson Valley residents. He said voters "will not tolerate a representative in Congress who turned his back on law enforcement and marched with Defund the Police activists."

In addition to boundaries, the redrawn districts have demographic differences. According to Board of Elections statistics, there were roughly 46,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and Conservatives in the current 18th district as of February, but roughly 52,000 more Democrats than Republicans and Conservatives in the new 18th as of June.

The current 19th had roughly 39,500 more registered Democrats than Republicans and Conservatives in February, compared to a roughly 18,000 margin under the new lines in June.

Ryan garnered 51.07% of the vote Tuesday to Molinaro’s 48.75%, according to the state Board of Elections. More than 129,000 ballots were cast, not counting absentees, of roughly 476,000 active registered voters in the district.

While Ryan won his home county by more than 9,000 votes, Molinaro only narrowly outgained Ryan in Dutchess, by roughly 800 votes.

Molinaro, in his statement, said "every midterm election is a referendum on the party in power," and cast ahead to his next race.

"In November, help is on the way as I’ll be running in a new district, with a new opponent − and we will continue to offer solutions for all families in upstate New York,” he said.

Chris McKenna covers government and politics for the USA Today Network. Reach him at cmckenna@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Poughkeepsie Journal: Pat Ryan set to join Congress, vacate Ulster office after election win