The path for Democrats to win the Senate

This story explains the Democrats’ path to the Senate majority. Click here to read about the other party’s path.

The Democrats’ path to holding their Senate majority has narrowed in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though it’s still a strong possibility.

High inflation, high gas prices and President Biden’s low approval numbers have taken a toll on his party, which has been forced to play defense in at least a handful of seats held by incumbents.

Democrats have leaned heavily on messaging surrounding the threat to abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision, but it is unclear if that will be enough to win over voters.

The party has just one clear-cut opportunity for a pickup, with what appear to be a few other longer shots in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

To keep the majority, Democrats likely need a win in Pennsylvania and for its incumbents to hold on in a handful of other states. 

Nevada

The heart of the Democratic path to retain the Senate runs through the Battle Born State, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is running for reelection against former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R).

Cortez Masto, who chaired the Senate Democratic campaign arm in 2020, has run what most on the Democratic side consider a strong race, but Republicans are feeling confident about taking her out.

The Democrat’s problems are familiar: whether she can overcome the headwinds blowing in the face of her party nationwide. Some of these headwinds are especially strong in Nevada, where gas prices average $4.95 per gallon, the third highest in the continental U.S., according to AAA.

Polls show Laxalt holding a slight polling advantage, with the latest RealClearPolitics average finding him clinging to a 2.8 percentage point advantage.

If Democrats lose the race, holding the Senate will be much more difficult. But they have far from given up.

“We’ve known it’s a battleground that will be won on the margins,” said one Democratic operative with Nevada ties. “They’ve gotten knocked down and come up short three cycles in a row. … This isn’t going to be 2014 by any stretch.”

Jon Ralston, the CEO of the Nevada Independent, predicted a win for Cortez Masto on Monday, arguing that while Laxalt may win the rural counties by a 2 to 1 margin, the base will come through for the incumbent in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and a large portion of state residents. He said she might even pull out a win in Washoe County, where Reno and Carson City sit.

Georgia

Another Democratic incumbent, Sen. Raphael Warnock, is in a tough race against Republican Herschel Walker, who so far has survived a series of controversies.

Warnock is seen as a strong candidate, but he’s running against the same difficult headwinds as Cortez Masto in a state where Democrats had struggled to win statewide races before 2020.

Warnock and fellow Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff turned Georgia blue in an early January 2021 runoff election after Biden won a narrow victory over former President Trump.

Democrats are hoping for a similar result this time. If neither Warnock nor Walker can win 50 percent of the vote, the contest will go to a runoff in December.

The runoff could play into the hands of Democrats.

Like some Senate GOP candidates this year, Walker is a chief beneficiary of having a strong governor at the top of the ticket in Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who is favored over Democrat Stacey Abrams.

If there is a Dec. 6 runoff, Walker would not have Kemp on top of the ticket to give him a lift.

Pennsylvania

If Democrats lose one of the previously listed races, a win by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) over Republican Mehmet Oz is absolutely necessary if the party is going to keep hold of power in the upper chamber.

For months following the May primary, Fetterman had a significant upper hand and it showed. He held sizable polling leads over Oz through Labor Day, but those began to shrink as heavy GOP spending in the state started to pay off with messages centered on crime and Fetterman’s career in public office.

Fetterman’s stroke, which he suffered just before the Democratic primary in May, has also been a factor.

It sidelined him until August, when he started to make public appearances. However, it also put him on the defensive in the one debate between him and Oz that was colored by his auditory processing issues and his struggle to speak clearly at times. Whether that debate swung things in Oz’s direction remains unclear.

“We have no idea if the Fetterman/Oz debate materially changed the race,” the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics wrote Monday, “but it was close before the debate and it’s close now.”

The path to victory for Fetterman is not unlike that of most Democrats in recent state history: compiling big margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, putting strong showings in throughout suburban regions and not getting blown out in the more rural parts of the state.

Fetterman’s main appeal to the state is simple: That he’s “one of us” and Oz, who lived in New Jersey for years while hosting his daytime television show, is not.

In a reversal from Georgia, a Democrat could be boosted by his gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) is widely expected to defeat state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) in that governor race, with GOP operatives believing he could win by 6 to 12 points.

The higher that total is, the better for Fetterman.

Democrats at various points in the cycle thought they had decent chances of defeating GOP candidates in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

Their candidates trail in all three states, so they would need a late shift to pull out a victory.

But if Democrats lose the Pennsylvania Senate race, most think it’s unlikely the party would win victories in those other states.

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