The Patriots’ one defensive flaw — and how the Titans can exploit it
If you’re an NFL team on the Patriots’ upcoming schedule, the object that’s much closer than it appears right now should be New England’s defense. As we head into the Sunday portion of Week 12, only the Bills rank higher in Defensive DVOA, only the Bills rank higher in DVOA against the pass, and as the Patriots rank eighth in DVOA against the run while the Bills rank 12th, there’s a reasonable case for the Pats to have at least a tie for the stranglehold on the title of NFL’s best defense.
The Patriots took that award home in 2019 with their man-heavy coverages, and then fell to 26th in 2020 as opt-outs and injuries took Bill Belichick’s defense to the woodshed. But now, that defense is the woodchipper once again. And this time, it’s not just about man coverage. In man this season, New England has allowed just 65 catches on 126 targets for 941 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. But in zone, the Pats have given up 122 completions on 202 attempts for 1,322 yards, three touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
No matter what you do, the Patriots seem to have a defensive answer. Their 28 sacks tied them with the Steelers for fifth in the league, and their 186 total pressures rank sixth. They don’t need to blitz to get home (they’ve brought the blitz on just 22.2% of their snaps), which obviously reinforces their coverage abilities, and if you want to run on this team… well, you can to a point, but getting in the end zone is a problem. New England has allowed 1,119 yards on 273 carries, but just four rushing touchdowns.
Into this woodchipper this Sunday walks Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who’s coming off a four-interception game against the Texans that marks a single-game career high in picks. As Tannehill will be without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown, this game would seem to be a fait accompli.
It’s entirely reasonable to assume this, but the Titans, Tannehill, and offensive coordinator Todd Downing still have to show up at Gillette Stadium to see how things play out. There’s not much Tennessee has going for it on offense, but there is one mismatch the Titans would be wise to exploit.
For all the things New England does well on defense, their response to play-action passes puts them behind the eight-ball in a surprising sense. The Pats have allowed six of their 13 total touchdowns to play-action passes with just two of their league-leading 18 interceptions, and if you count the flea-flicker Davis Mills of the Texans got them with in Week 5, you can up that to seven.
The question is whether Downing will give Tannehill, who’s always been good to great with play-action, enough opportunities to use it. In that disaster against the Texans, Tannehill had the benefit of play-action on just six of his 54 dropbacks, and all four of his interceptions were thrown without play-action.
Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing during the third quarter against the Seahawks at Lumen Field Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021 in Seattle, Wash. (George Walker IV / Tennessean.com-Imagn Content Services, LLC)
“Obviously, it hurts,” Tannehill said of his ever-dwindling offense after the Texans loss. “You want to have your guys out there that you’re used to playing with and you’ve got reps with, but that’s where we’re at right now in the season. It’s been a tough season for us injury-wise. Guys have stepped up and took advantage of some opportunities, and there’s some things we still have to do to work through with that. Hopefully we can get our guys back, and then the guys that are just starting to get reps, that we can get more reps with them.”
When you don’t have the Jimmies and Joes, you’d better turn to the Xs and Os if you want to have a chance. This is the one possible wormhole the Titans have against New England’s outstanding defense, so Downing would be wise to avail himself of as much of it as possible.
The larger question is, why is that outstanding defense having one specific problem that’s been a problem all season?
Week 1: Dolphins 17, Patriots 16
New England’s issues against play-action started in Week 1 against the Dolphins, on this Tua Tagovailoa touchdown pass to rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle. The rookie ran a “runback” motion out of bunch left, the play was well-designed (though Waddle slipped a bit), and the two tight ends in the bunch (Durham Smythe and Mike Gesicki) set it up well for Waddle to get into the end zone.
“I don’t think it was just Jaylen. It was lots of the guys out there on the field like DeVante Parker and a lot of the things that you guys probably don’t look at,” Tagovailoa said of this play. “You know, in Jaylen’s touchdown, you have Durham Smythe and Mike Gesicki on one side and they’re picking pretty much for Jaylen and that play wasn’t possible without those guys. I think the line did pretty good, too, today, up front. Obviously there are some things we have to clean up, and that’s what tomorrow is for us.”
Week 3: Sainte 28, Patriots 13
Jameis Winston was happy to exploit this play-action problem on this touchdown pass to Marquez Callaway, which would have been more of a wide-open shot had defensive back Jonathan Jones not dragged Callaway down. The play-action caused the middle defenders to cheat up, which gave Winston the look to hit with confidence.
“Yeah they came out, threw the ball up, and he came down with it,” Jones said after the game. “It was one of those plays I have to make, and they got me for a holding. But just got to come down with it, got to make that play.”
Week 5: Patriots 25, Texans 22
This game was a lot closer than most expected, and certainly fewer expected rookie quarterback Davis Mills to throw three touchdown passes. Two of those touchdown passes used backfield action to influence New England’s defenders. There was the 37-yard flea-flicker touchdown to Chris Conley in which Conley added to the picture by blocking to release on his route.
“It’s a trick play,” edge-rusher Matthew Judon said after the game. “It’s one of those kinds of things, I can’t believe they got us on that. But that’s what trick plays do. Usually if run properly, which they ran it properly, got good protection, the wide receiver did a good stop block and didn’t release, and it was a trick play and they only had 40 yards to go. Trick plays usually hit between 30 and 50. So that was a good call by them. They executed well, but like I said, we just came back and we didn’t hang our heads. Just kept the defense in the game. Kept ourselves in the game and then the offense just started putting up points.”
And there was Mills’ 11-yard touchdown pass to tight end Anthony Auclair. , which remains the only touchdown pass Auclair has caught in his five-year NFL career.
“I was supposed to run a corner, and on my way to the corner I was supposed to pick the guy that was covering Pharaoh [Brown],” Auclair said. “Really, that play was designed to throw to Pharaoh in the flat. I just saw nobody was covering me, so I was just staring and I hoped that Davis saw the same thing, and he did. So, we scored on that play.”
Week 6: Cowboys 35, Patriots 29 (OT)
Dak Prescott got the Patriots for two play-action touchdowns in this game. There was the 35-yarder to CeeDee Lamb in which Lamb was wide open (and signaling to Prescott that he was wide-open) because of the action, and because Dallas had tight ends Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin affecting the flat as Lamb ran the over route to that side.
“We were in a tough call for the route they ran,” defensive back Devin McCourty said. “They dialed up a good play for what we tried to do, kind of situational football. What they like to do, we tried to take it away. Dak was able to hold it for another second. We kind of took the first two reads, the two tight ends to the flat on our left side, but an extended play, he got to kind of get back to the middle. That’s where we were kind of light at and that was it.”
Then, the touchdown pass to Jarwin in which linebacker Dont’a Hightower was caught in conflict by the fake, and Jarwin had a clear path.
The Titans must test New England's defense with play-action.
And this is true with or without Derrick Henry. Tennessee had play-action frequency issues even when Henry was healthy and bowling the rest of the league over, so the lack of the NFL’s best running back isn’t the problem. This is a fundamental philosophical disconnect where you have a quarterback who’s been better with play-action than without through his career, and a coach who really isn’t interested in it.
If the Titans are to have a chance against the Patriots, and if they’re to contend through the rest of the season with their injury issues, Downing has to get over the fear of play-action — and this is the perfect game in which to start that process.
1
1
