Patriots' stout run defense might force Broncos' Wilson to air it out even with snow in the forecast

NEW ENGLAND (3-11) at DENVER (7-7)

Sunday, 8:15 p.m. EST, NFL Network

BETTING LINE: Broncos by 6 1/2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

AGAINST THE SPREAD: Patriots 3-10-1; Broncos 5-8-1.

SERIES RECORD: Broncos lead 31-23.

LAST MEETING: Broncos beat Patriots 18-12 on Oct. 18, 2020, at Foxborough, Mass.

LAST WEEK: Patriots lost to Chiefs 27-17; Broncos lost to Lions 42-17.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE: OVERALL (28), RUSH (25), PASS (26), SCORING (32).

PATRIOTS DEFENSE: OVERALL (8), RUSH (2), PASS (16), SCORING (16).

BRONCOS OFFENSE: OVERALL (25), RUSH (14), PASS (25), SCORING (16).

BRONCOS DEFENSE: OVERALL (30-T), RUSH (32), PASS (23), SCORING (30).

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Patriots minus-8; Broncos plus-5.

PATRIOTS PLAYER TO WATCH: K Chad Ryland missed a 41-yard field goal against the Chiefs last week, the third short miss in five games. The Patriots traded up in the draft last spring to select the Maryland kicker in the fourth round. He missed a 35-yarder against the Giants in Week 12, a game New England lost by three points, and a 35-yarder in Week 10 against the Colts, when the Patriots lost by four. Ryland is 13 for 20 overall.

BRONCOS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Russell Wilson has moved on from the sideline tongue-lashing he got from coach Sean Payton last week. Wilson didn't respond during Payton's tirade and fans wonder if the relentlessly positive quarterback will channel any energy into the Christmas Eve game and play with an emotional edge, which would be a welcome sight in Denver.

KEY MATCHUP: Patriots stout run defense versus Broncos running back trio of Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams has slowed down over the past several weeks and both Perine and McLaughlin have fresher legs. The Broncos may have to go to the air, but that's a tricky proposition with snow in the forecast, so they'll likely stick with their run-first philosophy even against the Pats.

KEY INJURIES: The Patriots placed OL Cole Strange (knee) on injured reserve on Monday, a day after he was taken off the field on a cart in the game against Kansas City. OL Conor McDermott missed Sunday’s game with a head injury. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) has missed the past two games. TE Hunter Henry (knee) hurt his knee in the Chiefs game. ... Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto is dealing with a torn MCL and is likely to miss his second straight game. ... TE Greg Dulcich is still dealing with a foot injury as he tries to salvage something out of a season in which he played in just two games because of a troublesome hamstring. ... S Kareem Jackson returned from his four-game suspension this week, but the Broncos could hold him out of this game and activate him Monday. PJ Locke has played well in the absence of Jackson, who has missed six of Denver's past seven games over a series of illegal hits that have cost him nearly $1 million.

SERIES NOTES: The Broncos have won four of five playoff games against the Patriots, including AFC championship game wins following the 2012 and 2015 seasons in Tom Brady-Peyton Manning matchups.

STATS AND STUFF: New England's defense is best in the NFL with 3.2 rushing yards allowed per carry. At that pace, it would be the fewest allowed by a team since the 2014 Detroit Lions. … They have allowed fewer than 3 yards per carry in three straight games and six times this season. If Denver fails to average 3 yards Sunday, it'll mark the Patriots' best such streak since 1966. ... LB Ja’Whaun Bentley needs 11 total tackles to be the first Patriots player with 100 in three consecutive seasons since current linebackers coach Jarod Mayo did it from 2008-10. … Rookie P Bryce Barringer has at least one 50-yard punt in all 14 games. He leads the NFL with 32 punts inside the 20 yard-line. … WR Demario Douglas has 39 receptions and needs five to surpass Deion Branch for the most by a rookie receiver under Bill Belichick. … DB Brenden Schooler is tied for the NFL lead with 12 special teams tackles. ... The Broncos are 6½-point favorites, the largest margin they've been favored by all season. They'll likely be favored to beat the Chargers and Raiders over the next two weeks as they seek to snap a six-year streak of losing records. But they would need some help to also reach the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 following the 2015 season. ... QB Russell Wilson has 14 touchdown throws and just one interception at home this season. ... In three regular-season starts against New England, Wilson is 3-0 with 11 TD passes and one interception. ... Wilson needs 168 yards passing Sunday to join Hall of Famer Peyton Manning as the only QBs with 3,000 passing yards in each of his first 12 seasons. ... RB Javonte Williams is 150 scrimmage yards shy of 1,000. ... WR Courtland Sutton has a career-high 10 touchdown catches in 2023. That's the most by a Broncos player since 2014. ... WR Jerry Jeudy led Denver with 74 yards receiving last week after three drops the week before cost him a potential 97 yards. ... ILB Alex Singleton has double-digit tackles in five of the Broncos' past six games. He ranks fifth in the NFL with 139 tackles. ... ILB Josey Jewell has forced a fumble in two of his past three home games. ... DT D.J. Jones had his first sack of the season last week against the Lions.

FANTASY TIP: Even in inclement weather, Sutton is a good bet to get into the end zone as he's been Wilson's primary target in the red zone all season and nobody else is a close second.

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