Patriots vs. Bills: What each team must do to win their AFC wild card game

There was a time not too long ago when a playoff matchup with the Buffalo Bills would make Patriots fans giddy. But in recent years, the Bills have transformed into an AFC contender in this post-Tom Brady era in New England.

For the second season in a row, the Bills have captured the AFC East, and they've taken the Patriots to the woodshed multiple times, winning three of the last four regular-season matchups. That brings us to Saturday night’s AFC wild-card matchup in a frigid Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Bill Belichick’s Patriots are no longer part of the dynasty that has struck fear in opposing coaches or players over the last couple of decades. Instead, this is a quick rebuilding effort with a promising rookie quarterback at the helm. Make no mistake, the Bills are favored on Saturday for good reason — they have a better team on both sides of the ball.

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A win for Buffalo signals another step for an organization that took a back seat to the Patriots for decades. A win for the Patriots represents another devastating blow for a Buffalo fan base that’s seen more than its fair share of losses over the years. If the Patriots are going to pull off an upset, they’re going to have to play a near-perfect game on Saturday night.

The section was written by Mark Daniels, who covers the New England Patriots for The Providence Journal.

Three things the Patriots need to do to defy the odds in Orchard Park, N.Y.:

Start fast and win the turnover battle

There’s a clear script that the Patriots have followed in their victories this season — they win the turnover battle and play with the lead. Those two items are the keys to a Pats triumph over the Bills on Saturday night.

This season, the Patriots are 8-0 when they finish with more turnovers than their opponent. They’re 1-6 when they lose the turnover battle and 1-1 when that margin is tied. The Patriots are 5-0 when their offense doesn’t turn over the ball. Their turnover margin during their seven-game win streak was plus-13. That count during their seven losses was minus-12.

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A problem they’re going to face with Buffalo is that the Bills have similar takeaway/giveaway numbers. The Bills are seventh in the NFL in turnover differential at plus-8. The Patriots are eighth at plus-7. Each of the teams has 30 takeaways this season. The Pats have one more giveaway (23) than the Bills (22).

In order to upset the Bills, it’s imperative for the Patriots that they win that turnover battle.

The same goes for starting fast. It’s been the Patriots’ biggest problem this season. They’re 8-1 when they score first and drop to 2-6 when they don’t score in the first quarter. An issue here is that the Bills have one of the fastest-starting offenses in the NFL, averaging 6.0 points in the first quarter. That’s the sixth-best mark in the NFL. The Pats are ranked 14th, averaging 4.5 points in that first frame.

Run the ball efficiently

It’s important that the Patriots start fast because that would allow them to do what they’re best at — running the ball.

The Pats finished eighth in the NFL in rushing, averaging 126.5 yards per game. Their 226.9 passing yards per contest puts them at 14th. At this point, it’s not a secret in the NFL — Mac Jones has had an outstanding season, for a rookie, but for this offense to be efficient, the Patriots need to run the ball really well. The Pats are 6-1 when they rush for more than 140 yards in a game. They’re 4-0 when they hit 150 or more total rushing yards.

On offense, the Patriots need Damien Harris (929 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns) and Rhamondre Stevenson (606 rushing yards and five touchdowns) to lead the way. It’ll be hard to lean on them if the Pats fall into an early hole.

If the Patriots start fast and don’t turn over the ball, they will relieve some of the pressure on Jones.

Get to the quarterback

There’s no sugarcoating it, Josh Allen torched the Patriots last time they played with 314 yards passing and three touchdowns. It was an embarrassing effort all around for New England in that 33-21 loss. The Pats did not sack Allen that day. They hit him four times.

The quarterback had plenty of time to throw the ball and picked the Patriots' zone defense apart.

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The Patriots have talented pass rushers but Matt Judon (12.5 sacks) & Co. have been quiet. Over the last four games, the Pats have four sacks. Only two NFL teams have fewer in that span — the Jets and Falcons. The Patriots finished 1-3 to end their season and opposing quarterbacks completed 62% of their passes.

If the Pats are going to beat the Bills, they will need to make life more difficult for Allen. Judon is one of the keys to the game for the Patriots. The Pro Bowler didn’t have a sack or quarterback hit over the final four games. The Patriots are 8-2 when Judon has a sack. They are 2-5 when he has none.

Saturday’s matchup is a tough one for the Patriots. Unlike past seasons, this Belichick-led team isn’t expected to come out of Buffalo with a win. It’s not impossible but a lot of things will have to go right in order for the Patriots’ season to continue.

The section was written by Sal Maiorana, who covers the Buffalo Bills for the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.

If the Bills are to win the rubber match between these teams in 2021, here are three things they’ll need to do:

Force the Patriots to rely on Mac Jones

This didn't happen in the first meeting on Dec. 6 when gale-force winds compelled the Patriots' coaching staff to have the rookie attempt only three passes while relying on a strong running game.

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Despite knowing that the Patriots would be running on almost every play, the Bills were unable to stop it as Harris, Stevenson and Brandon Bolden rushed for 222 yards, keyed by Harris’ 64-yard, first-quarter touchdown run that gave the Patriots a lead that they would never relinquish.

In relatively benign conditions the day after Christmas at Foxboro, the Bills still had a tough time against the run, particularly with Harris, who rushed for 103 of New England’s 149 yards. But because the Bills were able to play with the lead, they forced the Patriots to lean more on Jones and he could not deliver.

Jones passed for just 145 yards and threw two interceptions. When the Bills pressured Jones, he was 2-of-10 for 21 yards with one pick, and Buffalo’s outstanding secondary — which ranked No. 1 in the league this season — shut down New England’s group of pass catchers, especially on third down, as the Patriots were a gruesome 1-of-10.

Win at the line of scrimmage

This was a problem for the Bills on both sides of the ball at various points during the season. A team that was expected to run away and hide with the AFC East title was sitting at 7-6 and two games behind New England with four weeks to go, and a big reason was that Buffalo’s big men were underperforming.

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On defense, despite several additions in the past few years via the draft and free agency, the line was not getting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, nor was it holding up particularly well at the point of attack. Never was this more apparent than when Tennessee’s Derrick Henry, Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor and then the Patriots' three-headed crew ran roughshod and the Bills lost all three of those games.

Things have changed, however. In closing the season with four wins to claim the division, the Bills have recorded 19 sacks and wound up tied for 10th in yards allowed per rushing attempt at 4.2.

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On offense, the line really had a tough time coming together as the Bills were forced to mix and match combinations because of injuries and COVID-19. But after left guard Ike Boettger went down on Dec. 12 during the loss to Tampa Bay, Ryan Bates took over that position and the Bills have shown great improvement since then.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins made the Pro Bowl, center Mitch Morse has been rock-solid, right guard Daryl Williams is back in the position where he belongs and rookie right tackle Spencer Brown remains a physical force in the run game.

Josh Allen needs to be Josh Allen

Who knows where Jones’ career arc will take him, but right now, the reality is that Buffalo has a budding superstar at quarterback, and Allen has already shown the Patriots how magnificent he can be. Just put on the tape of the last two games he has played at Gillette Stadium.

When Allen plays like he did on those days, the Bills’ offense is extremely difficult to stop. He uses his cannon of an arm to fire footballs into tight windows, which not many QBs can pull off, and then he has the dynamic ability to shred a defense when he leaves the pocket.

For full Pats coverage, visit providencejournal.com/sports/patriots/

The Patriots had no answers in the game on Dec. 26 when he threw for 314 yards and ran for 64.

But this is where the weather might come into play. In the frigid conditions in which this game will be played, even the greatest players can be hindered and surrender some of their athleticism, and that certainly would work against Buffalo.

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The Bills need Allen to be effective as a passer because, even though they have run the ball better lately with Devin Singletary, it is still not an offense that can line up and batter defenses on the ground. It must be multidimensional to unleash its full strength and Allen and his array of receivers will have to find a way to overcome the weather, not to mention doing it against a very good Patriots defense.

Mark Daniels covers the Patriots for The Providence Journal and can be reached at mdaniels@providencejournal.com. Sal Maiorana covers the Bills for the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle and can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY NETWORK: Bills vs. Patriots: What each must do to win AFC Wild Card game