Peace expert says U.S. strikes on Houthis in Yemen mark 'very dangerous moment in the Middle East'

One day after the U.S. and U.K. launched retaliatory strikes against Houthi militant locations in Yemen, President Biden said the U.S. is prepared to take action again if the Iran-backed rebels continue to attack ships in the Red Sea.

“We will make sure that we respond to the Houthis if they continue with this outrageous behavior along with our allies,” Biden told reporters traveling with him in Pennsylvania on Friday.

The strikes, which were carried out with support from various allies following several warnings from the U.S., were in response to the Houthis’ repeated attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, which are causing major disruptions to global maritime trade. They struck more than 60 targets in more than a dozen locations in Yemen.

“I think the hope was there would be other ways to deter Houthi attacks on Red Sea targets,” Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told Yahoo News. “It was the significant barrage of missiles and drones on January 9 that finally gave the U.S. — from its perspective — no option but to respond directly by attacking Houthi targets in Yemen.”

Yacoubian spoke to Yahoo News about what these strikes mean for rising tensions in the Middle East amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. (Some answers have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

What was the objective of the U.S. and U.K. strikes?

Yacoubian: The objective is deterrence, and to put an end to the Houthi strikes on targets in the Red Sea. Whether or not that objective is achieved is a whole other question.

Why are the Houthis in Yemen attacking various ships in the Red Sea?

Yacoubian: The Houthis are claiming that the strikes are part of their opposition to Israel and the U.S., with respect to the conflict in Gaza. The Houthi reaction in the Red Sea comes as part of the reverberations of the conflict in Gaza, where the Houthis really have sought an opportunity to exploit that conflict, to insert themselves and put themselves on the international stage.

What is the significance of the Red Sea in all of this?

Yacoubian: The Red Sea is a critical byway to keep the international economy functioning, and functioning well.

As a result of these Houthi attacks, we've seen shipping companies now opt to avoid the Red Sea and use a much longer route that takes them around the horn of Africa.

This is creating significant disruptions for customers and is adding to the cost of shipping.

Do you think the U.S. and U.K. strikes will lead to an escalation of a wider war in the Middle East?

Yacoubian: I believe we are in the throes of a much broader region-wide conflict that has directly drawn in the United States. The Houthis are now vowing revenge on Americans. Honestly, [the Houthis are] in a position where they can sort of control a bit of the pace of escalation. They simply need to say, ‘Hey, we're here, still standing’ and undertake additional strikes.

This will once again put the United States in the difficult position of having to then escalate its own military intervention as a way of seeking to deter Houthi military action. And before you know it, I think we're off on a whole new escalatory cycle that very much encumbers the United States.

What is Iran’s role in all of this?

Yacoubian: Iran has been providing support to a variety of proxies in the region for years. Hezbollah is perhaps the most developed relationship. Some would refer to Hezbollah as the ‘crown jewel’ of Iran's proxies.

The Houthis, by contrast, are a newer relationship, but one that's proving, I think as we are seeing, to be rather potent. It’s clear that the Iranians, according to [Biden] administration sources, have been providing support to the Houthis for the strikes that they’ve been undertaking in the Red Sea.

In some ways, to date, Iran has benefited from a degree of plausible deniability by having proxies, like the Houthis, to undertake strikes against the U.S. and other targets, by creating conundrums and problems for the United States, but not drawing a direct U.S. response on Iran, which I think would be cataclysmic for the region. Then we would be in a region-wide war and in a very dangerous place.

(President Biden was asked by the press traveling with him in Pennsylvania on Friday if the U.S. is in a proxy war with Iran. “No,” he responded. “Iran does not want a war with us.)

What happens now?

Yacoubian: We’re at a very dangerous moment in the Middle East. Unfortunately, I think the kind of rising tensions at this flashpoint in the Red Sea have now tipped the region into the broader conflict that many fear could happen.

I think the big question at this point is going to be how to move from a situation of escalating tensions and violence, to one in which the United States can restore deterrence and deescalate very, very dangerous tensions before others end up joining the fight.