Pence appears to set up a presidential run – can he win over Trump’s base?

“Hang Mike Pence!” was the chilling chant of the mob at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. Can the same constituency be persuaded to vote Mike Pence on 5 November 2024? He, for one, appears to think so.

The former vice-president this week travelled across New Hampshire, host of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary elections, to meet local activists, raise money and deliver a speech attacking potential opponent Joe Biden.

Related: ‘It’s who they are’: gun-fetish photo a symbol of Republican abasement under Trump

Pence, who has nursed White House ambitions since his teens, has also paid recent visits to the early-voting states Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, implying that a run is more likely than not. But there is one problem.

Donald Trump.

The ex-president, whom Pence served faithfully – or obsequiously, in the eyes of critics – has not forgiven him for ignoring his plea to overturn the result of the 2020 election. That Pence, presiding over the Senate at it certified Biden’s victory, had no such power has become irrelevant at this stage.

Pence’s continued insistence that he did his constitutional duty on 6 January has done little to assuage the sense of betrayal among livid Trump supporters. In June he was heckled as a “traitor” during a speech to a gathering of religious conservatives in Orlando, Florida – hardly a positive omen.

“His biggest challenge is the people that he’s going to need to vote for him – the Republican primary base – are also the people who wanted to hang him on January 6,” said Kurt Bardella, an adviser to the Democratic National Committee. “I don’t see how you overcome that.”

Yet the former Indiana governor appears to be playing a long game, perhaps betting that Trump’s influence over the party will wane over the next three years. He may also be calculating that the stand he made for democracy on 6 January – a day on which he refused to flee the Capitol, taking cover in an underground car park – will resonate with moderate Republicans and independents.

Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist in Indiana, said: “He’s doing everything he needs to set himself up to run and, if Trump is not the nominee or is not running, I think he’s clearly the frontrunner.”

“I think people are realising that he was an unlikely hero on January 6. In the end, even for people who disagree with him for many other policy positions he’s taken, whether it was as a governor or as a vice-president, he did the right thing when the pressure was on on January 6.”

Pence’s visit to New Hampshire was his second to the state, which has a huge say in choosing the party nominee, since leaving office. He attended holiday parties, raised money for state Republicans and posed for photos at at the Simply Delicious bakery in Bedford.

In a speech hosted by Heritage Action, a conservative policy advocacy organisation, the 62-year-old accused Biden of fuelling inflation and lambasted the president’s social and environmental spending plan, warning: “Keep your hands off the American people’s pay cheques.”

As is customary at this stage of an election cycle, Pence did not confirm or deny whether he was running for president, insisting that his priority was next year’s midterm elections for Congress.

He told the Associated Press: “To be honest with you, all of my focus is on 2022 because I think we’ve got a historic opportunity for not just a winning election, but a realignment election. So I’m dedicating all of my energy to the process of really winning back the Congress and winning statehouses in 2022. And then in 2023, we’ll look around and we’ll go where we’re called.”

The campaign-style tour did not go unnoticed by Trump, who released a statement that said: “Good man, but big mistake on not recognizing the massive voter fraud and irregularities” in the 2020 election. There is no evidence of any such fraud or irregularities.

Pence, however, may choose to borrow from the playbook of Glenn Youngkin, who recently won election as governor of Virginia by keeping Trump at arm’s length without overtly denouncing him, thereby reaping the best of both worlds: the party establishment and “Make America Great Again” (Maga) base.

There are already signs of Pence having his cake and eating it too. In a radio interview on Wednesday he repeated a now familiar line that he and Trump may “never see eye to eye” on the events of 6 January, but he also told several news outlets “there were irregularities that happened at the state level” in the election. He also insisted that he parted with his boss on good terms.

This Trump-lite approach might do just enough to satisfy the former president’s followers while promising other Republicans a lower political temperature.

Michael D’Antonio, a Pence biographer, said: “What’s weird is he earned his bona fides with Trump by being so craven in his loyalty and then he expressed his independence in that one moment when it really mattered. So he could make a play in both directions and say, ‘Look, I’m Donald Trump but without the violence.’”

There are signs of the Maga core “cooling off” or losing interest in politics, D’Antonio added. “I also knew a number of Trump voters who chose him in 2016 because of Pence. So Pence may have built up a lot of credibility with people. And I guess the last point is, you don’t need to win 50% to get the nomination.”

Some Republicans, including former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, have said they will not contest the primaries if Trump throws his hat in the ring. Others, such as ex-New Jersey governor Chris Christie, have rejected the idea that a Trump candidacy should prevent others running.

Florida governor Ron DeSantis, South Carolina senator Tim Scott and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo are seen as potential contenders to be party standard bearer. Pence, however, might hope that his status as a former vice-president would count in his favor, just as it did for Biden last year.

Clues to his intentions include the fact he is writing a book and recording a regular podcast: in the latest episode of American Freedom, the devout Christian says “we hope and pray” the supreme court will overturn Roe v Wade, its 1973 decision upholding a woman’s constitutional right to abortion.

Should he secure the nomination, however, Pence would be hard pushed to win over millions of Trump critics who have not forgotten how he failed to speak out or take a principled stand during four years of chaos. There are countless hours of footage of him giving speeches in which he mentions “President Trump” over and over again, praising his “leadership” and calling him “my friend”.

Bardella, a former Republican congressional aide, said: “Mike Pence will be regarded for what he is, which is a coward void of any real moral conviction or principles.

“The fact that he is turning around now, still trying to court the hearts and minds and votes of the very people who perpetrated the domestic terrorist attack on our country illustrates that he is the worst kind of political figure because, even though he may not believe these things, he’s still pandering and catering to those elements. I don’t believe that history will look back on him kindly at all.”