Penn State at Illinois predictions: How can the Nittany Lions avoid the upset?

Penn State plays its third game of the season Saturday afternoon against the Illinois Fighting Illini on the road in their first game away from Beaver Stadium in the 2023 season. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Illini.

Slowing down Altmyer

Penn State facing West Virginia in its season opener should pay dividends this weekend. Mountaineer quarterback Garrett Greene is not an All-American at the position but he is a quality dual threat who could make the Nittany Lions pay with his legs when he needed to do so. He did it a number of times and now Penn State has plenty of film to watch to help prepare for Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer. Altmyer’s passing numbers are a mixed bag through two games — 37-of-54 for 408 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions — but they don’t tell the full story.

He’s not surrounded by an abundance of offensive talent and essentially carried the unit in the game against Kansas in Week 2. He’s tacked on 22 carries for 139 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, although he had 72 of those yards on one long touchdown run against the Jayhawks. The pocket was constantly falling apart around him, making it difficult for him to do much of anything. Fortunately for Penn State, its defensive line should cause even more issues for Altmyer and the Illini offensive front.

This is a prime opportunity for Adisa Isaac, Chop Robinson and Dani Dennis-Sutton to wreak havoc off the edge and collapse the pocket on Altmyer. That doesn’t even account for Hakeem Beamon and Zane Durant on the interior, who should be able to force their matchups up the field, allowing the defensive ends to make plays with Altmyer having no room to work. The defensive line should be able to dictate this game for the Nittany Lions and if they do, the point differential could be even larger than anticipated heading into this one.

Generating early offense

The similarities with West Virginia continue. This is another game where getting off to good start could do wonders for the Nittany Lions. Illinois is at its best when it can be a threat through the air and on the ground, spreading the field with its offense and utilizing the running game. Like most teams, becoming one dimensional is troublesome, and that’s especially true when the talent gap is as wide as it will be in this game. The Illini can’t afford to get behind against a team that can turn you over when you have the ball and can gash your defense when you don’t.

Penn State getting up early is going to help on those obvious fronts — it creates a desperate opponent that isn’t on the same level as the Nittany Lions — but can help sophomore starting quarterback Drew Allar acclimate to his first road start. I want to be clear, I don’t think Allar is going to have any crowd-related issues. He’s one of the most poised first-year starters I’ve seen and already played on the road in a difficult spot against Purdue last season. But him giving the team a lead should quiet the Illinois crowd and make things even easier for a Penn State offense that could have a big game.

That, and the defense pinning its ears back and playing aggressively against an offensive line that it should beat will be a major plus. While West Virginia had a high-level offensive line, this Illinois group isn’t on that level. You might be picking up on this already, but Penn State has a lot of advantages in this matchup and those will only be amplified if the Nittany Lions build a lead.

Don’t let Newton wreck the game

There is one place where Illinois has a clear advantage, and it’s a place the Illini will have an edge in pretty much every game this season. Defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton is a true game wrecker that should be a first round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s a high-level pass rusher who racked up 5.5 sacks last season and is well on his way to blowing past that number this season with two sacks through two games.

While most people would want their best pass rushers to be at defensive end, there’s a massive value in having those types of players on the interior. Pressure from defensive tackles can cause even more issues because of what it does to a quarterback. When players come off the edge, they tend to come from spots that allows a passer to step up into the pocket and navigate the rush. When it comes from inside, there’s more of a need for quarterbacks to leave the pocket and have to make a play on the outside. That could be more of an issue for a young quarterback who isn’t as used to feeling pressure up the middle on four-man rushes.

The good news for Penn State is that Allar doesn’t seem to be phased by pressure from anywhere. He has the poise of a veteran and should be able to deftly navigate pressure even when Newton beats the interior of the Nittany Lion offensive line. That’s not to say the Illini defensive tackle won’t have an impact — he almost surely will — but it could be more limited if the young signal caller is able to play at the level he has from a control perspective that he did through two weeks.

Final predictions

Penn State 34, Illinois 17: I don’t see an easy avenue for Illinois to win this game. Penn State has a massive talent gap — see above — and should be able to win in the trenches on offense consistently enough that it will take control of the game early and never let it go. There’s a world where the Illini go off the wall and play with three tight ends like they did two years ago when the teams went to nine overtimes — please don’t, I’m begging, no more overtime — and they keep it close. I just don’t see it happening when the talent gap has broadened and the Nittany Lions now have a quarterback that can go win the game by himself.

MVP: Drew Allar. Speaking of that quarterback, he should be in for a huge day. Allar is facing a good defense but not an elite one. It’s a good test for later in the season when Ohio State and Michigan pop up on the schedule, but not a strong enough one to make him struggle. I’ll say his line is similar to his season opener — 315 yards on over 70% passing to go with three touchdowns through the air.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on Allar not liking being the center of attention:

“I think that’s one of the reasons that is allowing him to play so well. He’s really not focused on those things. He’s focused on preparing to be the best quarterback. And to be honest with you, we’re not asking that of him in year one. We want him to focus on doing his job to the best of his ability.”