Penn State vs. Indiana predictions: How can the Nittany Lions regain momentum?

Penn State will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season when it takes the field Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions will take on the Indiana Hoosiers in Beaver Stadium. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Hoosiers.

Figure out an identity

I thought — and I’m pretty sure Penn State thought — the team’s offensive identity was obvious heading into the Ohio State game. The Nittany Lions ran all over teams through six games with a power running game that leaned on its offensive line to create space for its top two running backs. That was the case even though those backs, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, were not playing at the same level that they did last season. They utilized heavy personnel groupings that included multiple tight ends to impose their will on their opponents, pushing them downfield to control the game and the score. By the time the third and fourth quarter rolled around, those defenses were exhausted and the Nittany Lions could break the game open.

So when they went into Ohio State and relied less on their power running game, I was fairly surprised. It was them straying away from what got them to that point in the season and it resulted in one of the worst offensive performances the team has had this year. Saturday is going to be an important opportunity for Penn State to get back on track. I would expect to see plenty of heavy personnel groups against the Hoosiers and a whole lot of Allen and Singleton running downhill. If that isn’t the case, then I think it’s clear there’s a shift in identity happening and the Nittany Lions will only have a couple weeks to find themselves before they face Michigan.

Rotate on defense

There wasn’t a lot to complain about with regard to Penn State’s defense, so unlike the offense there isn’t a lot of fixing to do against the Hoosiers. Well, unless Indiana somehow adds Marvin Harrison Jr. to its roster.

So it’s once again time for the Nittany Lions to get their young players in the game and preserve their best players for the upcoming matchup with the Wolverines in a couple weeks. That’s especially true at defensive end, where the team is already banged up. Amin Vanover left the Ohio State game late and did not return, while Chop Robinson left in the middle of the game and also never re-entered. Penn State head coach James Franklin said Vanover could be a game-time decision while Robinson could be back sooner rather than later.

Regardless, the team does not need those two to beat the Hoosiers. Dani Dennis-Sutton and Adisa Isaac are high level starters, while Zuriah Fisher and Jameial Lyons should be able to fill in and soak up snaps when things get out of hand.

There are other positions where players should get rest — Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Daequan Hardy come to mind at corner — but no position may be more important than defensive end because the Nittany Lions are already banged up there. Indiana will present a good opportunity to do that, especially with a good but not great Maryland team looming next week ahead of the Michigan matchup.

Build Allar’s confidence

To be clear, I don’t think sophomore quarterback Drew Allar needs his confidence fully rebuilt after the loss to Ohio State. He handled the postgame press conference as well as any 19-year-old could and took accountability for the team’s offensive shortcomings — even if they weren’t his fault.

What this is about is the team needing to build his confidence when it comes to attacking downfield. There were a couple of opportunities for Allar to unleash deep throws against the Buckeyes, but instead he took a checkdown option. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but Penn State is still in need of an explosive element to its offense and gearing him up to throw deep will help create some big plays when those opportunities arise.

No, he should not throw downfield regardless of if players are open — but he does need to hang in the pocket a little longer when he can if it means finding a receiver on a slower developing deep shot. Allar has all the requisite tools to make this an explosive offense. He has elite arm strength and the ability to drive the ball into tight windows down field — along with the mobility to get into space and make those throws even if the team’s pass protection isn’t perfect.

He’s a high level player who should be able to lead a high level offense. That usually involves big plays and there might not be a better week the rest of the season to get those shots in, partially because Indiana’s defense doesn’t pose a threat and partially because if he misses the mark the Hoosier offense isn’t good enough to make him pay for it.

Final predictions

Penn State 49, Indiana 0: It’s going to be difficult for Penn State not to bounce back from its loss. I don’t know if there’s a team in the Big Ten that is worse right now and the Hoosiers are up there in the chaos rankings too. The Nittany Lion defense should earn its third shutout of the season and the offense should be able to light up the Hoosiers.

MVP: Drew Allar. This feels like a get-right game for the young quarterback. Allar was not put in position to succeed against Ohio State but also didn’t play at a high level in the game. I’ll say he eclipses 300 passing yards and throws for two touchdowns while putting on his best performance of the season.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on where the blame falls after the loss to Ohio State:

“When it doesn’t happen, it is ultimately on me and my responsibility, There’s no doubt about that. There’s no gray area about that whatsoever. Is it nuanced, and is there a lot of things that go into that that ultimately no one really cares about at that time? Yes. There’s no doubt about it. At the end of the day the most important thing is for me to take responsibility and do everything within my power to get it fixed.”