Penn State vs. Iowa predictions: How will the Nittany Lions handle an elite defense?

Penn State will host its annual White Out game Saturday night when the Nittany Lions take on Iowa at Beaver Stadium. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Hawkeyes.

Allar’s toughest test

There might not be a better defense in the country than Iowa’s. Not division. Not conference. The country. The Hawkeyes are currently No. 1 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ on defense and have already proven their worth on that end of the field. They have a front that can wreak havoc against the run or the pass and the team’s secondary is a threat to pick off any pass with even the slightest bit of extra loft on it.

All of that is to say, this is not going to be easy for Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. He was excellent in the team’s first two games but was just fine against Illinois last week, bringing into question what he’ll be against Iowa. He could very well be back playing at his absolute best and play at an elite level, but it will be harder this week than it has been so far this season. He’s done a great job of not turning the ball over and has led the offense well with his poise and decision making over the first three weeks. There may be a tendency to think he should be a game manager this week, but I think the opposite may be true.

This is not the time for the Nittany Lions to play into Iowa’s hands and work underneath, allowing them to swarm the offense before they can make anything happen. This will be an opportunity for Allar to be a major reason for the Penn State victory. I’m not saying he should go out and try and win the game on his own — he should very much play within the offense and get the ball to his weapons. But this is a chance for the offense to expand and take a few risks downfield on throws that only quarterbacks as talented can make. If he does that, this could be the game that puts Allar on the map as much more than a starting signal caller.

Stopping the run

There is only one real way for Iowa to score points this game and that’s on the ground. I would genuinely be surprised if Cade McNamara and the Hawkeye offense accomplished anything through the air this game. This is a bad passing offense that is facing an excellent pass defense. Penn State has the advantage at pretty much every matchup in the passing game. Point being, if Iowa has to throw, that means it’s losing at the time. And if it’s throwing for that reason, then the Hawkeyes are going to lose.

That puts the onus on the Iowa rushing offense to give the team a chance to win Saturday’s game. Bad news for the Hawkeyes, they also aren’t great there. The upside for them, though, is that the Penn State defense does have a weakness against the run, or at least it has in the past. This will be another good test for the Nittany Lions to see if they made any real progress in run defense so far this season.

If they have, then Iowa is going to be in enough trouble with the combination of Penn State’s offensive explosion and the White Out environment that it could lead to a blow out. Leshon Williams, who is expected to start at running back for Iowa, might be the offense’s best chance at preventing that from happening. If he can control the game on the ground by consistently picking up three or four yards at a time. Otherwise, this is simply a litmus test for Penn State in a lot of areas rather than a true upset opportunity for the Hawkeyes.

Who steps up at wide receiver

This is less relevant to the game at hand — still important, though — and more about what the offense is going to look like long term. The Nittany Lions know KeAndre Lambert-Smith is an excellent big play threat who is more than capable of going off for over 150 yards and multiple touchdowns. Harrison Wallace III, meanwhile, seems to be the most consistent receiver in the room, prone to games with 70-80 yards on a higher volume of receptions. The rest of the receivers do not seem ready for the starting job and that has led to a heavy rotation through three weeks.

It doesn’t help that Wallace missed Saturday’s game against Illinois and his status for this weekend is not a guarantee. Assuming he is able to go for Penn State, a third receiver will need to emerge at some point this year, and this is yet another opportunity for that to happen. I could tell you about the strengths and weaknesses of the large group of non-top two receivers, but that seems to be narrowing down. Based on what we’ve seen over the first three weeks of the season, there are two players who could step up and take the third spot from Liam Clifford, who currently starts in the slot.

Dante Cephas has seen his reps increase of late and has continued to acclimate to the Big Ten after playing his entire career in the Mid-American Conference prior to this season. He could firmly place himself in the top group if he can find consistency, and would allow Lambert-Smith to kick inside to the slot where he could thrive. Kaden Saunders has seen his confidence grow after an up and down freshman year and is the team’s top punt returner, where he’s excelled so far. He can slide directly into Clifford’s spot as a slot receiver and show off the high end speed and athleticism he had as a five-star recruit. Regardless of who it is, I’ll once again be watching for somebody other than the top two to show their consistency on an every snap basis.

Final predictions

Penn State 23, Iowa 7: I could see this game going a few different ways. If Iowa wins, there’s no way the total gets over 30. If Penn State wins, it could be a blowout or it could look something like this final score. Point being, I don’t think Iowa can score. The Hawkeye defense can — the offense not so much. This is a good chance for the Nittany Lions to find out what it’s made of offensively, but an even better chance for its defense to be suffocating.

MVP: KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Scoring could be at a premium Saturday night and you could be looking for one or two big moments that swing the game. Lambert-Smith is the receiver who is both most capable enough to do that and the most consistent enough to get the opportunities to do it. I’ll say he finishes with 135 receiving yards and a touchdown that comes from 65 yards out.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on playing Iowa:

“I would also say specifically with Iowa, they are who they are, and they take tremendous pride in their identity and doing it well. So you know what you’re going to get from them. Again, I mean that as a major compliment. They’re going to have wrinkles that are going to cause you challenges every year. But they do what they do and they do it well. It aligns with their identity.”