Penn State vs. Northwestern: Prediction, point spread, odds, best bet
Penn State hosts Northwestern in a Big Ten matchup in Week 5, and the Nittany Lions are once again being made a sizable favorite at home. Penn State is favored by more than three touchdowns against the Wildcats, which suggests Penn State has an excellent chance of entering its bye week with a clean 5-0 record before things get a tad more difficult later in October.
According to the latest odds from BetMGM, Penn State is favored by 25.5 points at the beginning of the week. Given the recent struggles of Northwestern, that could appear like a somewhat enticing line to consider in Week 5.
But let’s take a look at the odds at the beginning of the week going into this Big Ten cat fight.
The lines, courtesy of BetMGM
Point spread: Penn State -25.5
Penn State money line: -5,000
Northwestern money line: +1,400
Over-under: 52.5
Click here to place your bets at BetMGM.
Northwestern at Penn State injury report
Michael Hickey/Getty Images
You may have noticed there were just two running backs taking handoffs last weekend for Penn State. Junior [autotag]Keyvone Lee[/autotag] sat out of the game with an undisclosed injury, and he should be considered questionable to play this week against Northwestern.
In the absence of Lee in the running game, Penn State will continue to rely on their freshmen [autotag]Nick Singleton[/autotag] and [autotag]Kaytron Allen[/autotag]. The duo have combined for three straight Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors.
Northwestern defensive back Coco Azema was injured in the season opener and has been out of action since then. The starting defensive back is reportedly questionable with an undisclosed injury as the week begins. Azema gave it a try in Northwestern’s last game against Miami Ohio, but left the game with an undisclosed injury. It is unconfirmed if it is the same injury from earlier in the season.
Betting Trends
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Penn State may be 4-0 striaght-up this season and has won each game as a favorite. But last week saw Penn State fail to cover against the spread. Penn State is now 3-1 against the spread this season.
Penn State is 1-1 against the spread when favored by at least 20 points this season. Last weekend was also the first game Penn State played that failed to go over its point total.
Northwestern is 1-3 against the spread this season. The only win against the spread came as an underdog in Week 0 against Nebraska. The Wildcats are 0-3 against the spread when favored in the matchup, and Northwestern has lost each of those games.
Northwestern has also gone under on the point total in each of the last three games played.
Early gut reaction best bet
This does feel like a good week to roll with the Nittany Lions on a couple of fronts. Penn State should have no business losing this game striaght-up, and the benefit of playing Central Michigan the way it did allows for some refinement in practices this week leading up to the game.
It is fair to be hesitant to think hard about taking Penn State as such a heavy favorite against the spread. In fact, taking Northwestern to cover may not be a terrible bet. That’s the way I’ll be going this week.
Prediction: Penn State 34, Northwestern 16
Get more betting analysis and predictions at Sportsbook Wire.
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