Penn State vs. Texas A&M NCAA Tournament predictions: Can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset?

Penn State will try to keep its season going Thursday night with a game against the Texas A&M Aggies. The Nittany Lions will take them on in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Des Moines, Iowa. Here are some final thoughts, predictions and analysis ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Aggies in their first NCAA Tournament game since 2011.

Containing Wade Taylor IV

Penn State’s defense will have to focus on slowing Taylor down. He’s the Aggies’ highest usage player, finishing possessions more than any other player on the team, and is also their highest efficiency scorer. He’s a good but not great shooter from deep at 36.8% but does his best work attacking the rim. With Taylor, it’s not necessarily about finishing as much as its about getting to the free throw line.

He’s adept at attacking the rim and drawing contact, making it important for Penn State’s big men to stay vertical and not foul unnecessarily. If they can do that, they should be able to limit Taylor and give themselves a chance to win. Foul him, however, and it could be a long day of going deep into the bench with players in foul trouble or even potentially fouling out. With a team like Penn State that already has a short rotation, that would be an ominous sign.

Making shots from deep

This is the case for Penn State in most games but even moreso this week with how the Aggies are going to play. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the Nittany Lions’ scoring efficiency first. They’re ninth in the country in 3-point field goal percentage at 38.5% and do that on the 10th highest 3-point rate in the country. This team is looking to shoot early and it’s looking to shoot often. Rarely will you see head coach Micah Shrewsberry admonish a player for missing a 3-pointer and almost never will you see him do it when it’s an open one.

The Nittany Lions will likely go back to the well and post Jalen Pickett up with shooters spaced around him. That should be even more efficient against A&M because they switch on ball screens, allowing Pickett to find the matchup he wants and go to work. Odds are, they’ll either have to stop switching or double Pickett in the post. The latter feels more likely and would result in plenty of open looks. It’s on the Nittany Lions to convert those opportunities.

Limit second chances, transition opportunities

Penn State’s 3-point shooting matters even more because the Nittany Lions are probably going to lose the fast break points battle and the second chance points battle. Let’s start on the glass.

The Aggies are sixth in the country in offensive rebounding rate at 36.6% and one of the most aggressive teams in that regard. Penn State could struggle with a team like that, despite only allowing an offensive rebounding rate of 25.1%. The Nittany Lions’ lack of size has caused them to have issues at times, but it hasn’t been as much of a recurring theme as it may seem this season. That being said, they can’t afford to let A&M crash the glass with reckless abandonment or they’re going to put even more pressure on their own offense to score more efficiently.

The other issue may be the one that decides the outcome. The Aggies turn opponents over on 21% of possessions, good for 42nd in the country, while the Nittany Lions turn it over on only 13.7% of possessions, good for seventh in the country. Not giving the ball away won’t guarantee a win for Penn State, but it will limit A&M’s transition opportunities. Making the Aggies create in the half court will make it harder to get to the rim, giving the Nittany Lions another potential edge in the offensive efficiency battle.

Final predictions

Penn State 68, Texas A&M 67: This is going to be a tight game. The Aggies excel on the offensive glass and should be able to create extra opportunities, while Penn State will likely have to make up for that by being efficient from beyond the arc. I’ll take the team that has been one of the best in the country from deep to keep that up in a very close matchup.

MVP: Andrew Funk. As I mentioned above, Penn State is going to have to make its shots from deep and that means some positive long range efforts from both Funk and Lundy. They’re two of the most prolific shooters in the country and if the Nittany Lions win, Funk’s ability to move off the ball and come off screens and shoot will likely have a large impact.

Good gamble: It would be a surprise if this wasn’t one of the best games of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Penn State is one of the hottest teams in the country and the Aggies are severely under-seeded as a No. 7 seed. I expect a close matchup either way, which bodes well for Penn State +2.5.

Quotable

Penn State head coach Micah Shrewsberry’s interaction with a reporter on his future at Penn State

Reporter: Micah, I think a lot of Penn State fans like not only what you’ve done with this team but they like you. Are you going to be the Penn State coach next season?

Shrewsberry: That’s a great question. There has been a lot of those. I got that question last week at the Big Ten Tournament. I told our guys after the Rutgers game that I felt like I let them down as a coach. I didn’t feel like I did my best. So I told them that will never happen again. That’s all I’m focused on is being that person for them. Right?

We’ve just played four games in four days. We have had our backs against the wall for three weeks and now I’m getting ready to coach my first opportunity as a head coach to be in an NCAA Tournament game. I don’t have time to focus on anything else but just being the best version for these guys and that’s all I’m focused on. When the offseason comes then I can focus on other things, but I’m tunnel vision on playing this game for our guys tomorrow.

Reporter: So it’s a yes, no, I don’t know question. So I guess it’s I don’t know. Is that accurate?

Shrewsberry: It’s an I don’t know question.