Peterson: Getting real about Iowa State football, including questions about Hunter Dekkers' deep ball

AMES — Let’s get real for a few minutes.

We’ve heard from coaches and players that quarterback Hunter Dekkers has been heaving some long passes — longer than we’ve seen in a while. We’ve heard the first-year starter has been completing them, too. Mostly to Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel.

Do we really expect to see that during a season that begins Sept. 3 against Southeast Missouri at Jack Trice Stadium?

Let’s get real: Probably not as many as us in the everyday media make it seem. Before going too far into this, let’s not forget the most under-reported statistic from last season’s 7-6 team — it led the Big 12 in passing, with an average of 263.8 yards a game. It also led with 3,430 total passing yards in 13 games. Average yards per completion? That’s another story, the 10.9 average was dead last in the conference. With that backdrop, I’m not expecting the Cyclones suddenly to vault to No. 1 in yards per completion, yet the guess is that it’ll be a few yards higher than the 2021 average.

“There's going to be some differences, like for sure in the vertical game, but there’s more to it than just that,” Dekkers said at the team’s annual media day. “It’s how you handle all the situations. Brock (Purdy) was very good at that.”

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When can we expect Will McDonald to become the Big 12’s career sack leader? He only needs five to break the record of 34 that Texas A&M’s Von Miller has owned since 2010. Sometime during the Big 12 opener at home against Baylor on Sept. 24?

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Let’s get real: Unlikely, considering his sack history. Last season, McDonald got his fifth sack in the sixth game. It was the fifth game in 2020, ninth game in 2019, and he didn’t get that many during his rookie season. The redshirt senior, a preseason Associated Press first-team All-American, will hold the record before he hangs up his uniform for the final time. That’s, of course, barring serious injury.

“Will just needs to keep being Will,” defensive line coach Eli Rasheed said. “That’s all we need from him.”

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I’ve seen Las Vegas oddsmakers most recently peg Iowa State’s over-under number for wins at 6½.

Let’s get real: That seems low, especially if the Cyclones go 2-1 during the non-conference, and certainly low if they’re 3-0 during non-conference games for the first time since 2012. Even the last victory in the Cy-Hawk game, in 2014, Iowa State opened the season with 34-14 loss against North Dakota State. So, it’s big news if head coach Matt Campbell’s team sweeps the non-conference portion of the schedule. Suddenly, the regular-season victory total could approach eight or even . . . I’ll stop there. Three-and-oh momentum, however, would provide Game No. 4 — the Big 12 opener against league-favorite Baylor, considerable intrigue, especially since the game is at Jack Trice Stadium.

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Fans are getting antsy about next season’s Big 12 football schedule, considering the league is adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. Schedules for 2023 are coming out soon, right?

Let’s get real: It’s tough to figure out a schedule, when you don’t know precisely when Oklahoma and Texas are bolting for the SEC. If they stay put for 2024, that means the Big 12 is 14 schools. If they both leave, the league becomes appropriately named (assuming no one else is added). If one leaves, it’s 13. Get the point? The sooner what’s-their-names figure out when they’re leaving, the sooner the conference can work on a schedule. The 2022 schedule was released in February 2021, by the way. The 2020 schedule came out in August of that (COVID) year.

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Reports out of camp about freshman place-kicker Jace Gilbert have been positive. Can he become another Andrew Mevis?

Let’s get real: Mevis punted 25 times last season. He made 20 of his 25 field-goal attempts, including a 54-yarder.  A total of 55 of his 79 kickoffs were touchbacks. Gilbert, believed to be the new kicker, did all three at Marlow High School in Oklahoma – and he did all three very well. He averaged 41.3 yards per punt. Kohl's kicking camp ranked him the No. 13 punter in the nation. He made 15 of his 19 field-goal attempts during the last three seasons, with the longest a 52-yarder. Of 182 kickoffs the past three seasons, 173 were into the end zone. So, don’t be surprised if he kicks, and Cameron Shook starts the season as the punter. Transfer Ben Garbarini averaged 42.2 yards per attempt at Division III Christopher Newport College in 2019.

“It’s all about consistency,” Campbell said of anyone who kicks. “It’s all about the ability to perform. It’s all about the ability to replicate your process so you can perform with great consistency.”

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Running back Geno Hess is the Southeast Missouri player with whom Iowa State must most concern itself. Right?

Let’s get real: The 5-foot-8, 222-pounder has impressive statistics, including 1,116 rushing yards on 203 attempts while becoming an AP second-team FCS All-American in 2021. He’ll not be a one-player show. The Redhawks named Paxton DeLaurent the starting quarterback, a Central Methodist transfer who completed 171 of 349 passes for 2,499 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. The 6-foot-5, 215-pounder also rushed for 553 yards and seven touchdowns, so he’s a double threat.

“Paxton is a lot more athletic than you would think, being so long and tall,” Southeast Missouri offensive coordinator Jeromy McDowell said in the press release announcing the starting QB. “He can process in a hurry, and that allows him to anticipate throws and use all his weapons at any given time.”

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson embarked on his 50th year of writing sports for the Des Moines Register in December 2021. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter at @RandyPete.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Will Iowa State football really throw the long ball more in 2022?