Peterson: Here's another way Iowa State can extend its bowl streak
AMES − We’ve got the College Football Ratings, the Associated Press and Coaches polls, and now I bring you this:
It’s a list of the football teams most likely to see the postseason, if in fact five-win teams are needed to fill out the 41 bowl-game slots.
Those coveted last-minute additions are based on a football program’s most recent Academic Progress Report, and yes it has happened. Rutgers made it last season after Texas A&M opted out of the Gator Bowl. Forget 2020, because many teams skipped bowls for COVID considerations. Two 5-7 teams made it in 2016, three in 2015, and Iowa State could be in that mix this season − emphasis on could.
More:Peterson: Iowa State’s dilemma of when, and when not to have Hunter Dekkers run
Matt Campbell’s 3-5 team first must win at least two of its final four games. Saturday’s 2:30 p.m. game against 3-5 West Virginia is a solid opportunity for one of those, and so is Nov. 19 at home against 4-4 Texas Tech. The other two games are at 6-2 Oklahoma State on Oct. 29 and at 8-0 TCU on Nov. 26.
So, let’s say there are not enough six-win teams to fill the bowls. Here are the APR rankings of teams that can still win at least five games.
Air Force 5-3 (APR: 994), remaining games against Army, New Mexico, Colorado State and San Diego State
Rice 4-4 (APR: 994), remaining games against UTEP, Western Kentucky, Texas-San Antonio, North Texas
Wisconsin 4-4 (APR: 992), remaining games against Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota
Louisville 5-3 (APR: 988), remaining games against James Madison, Clemson, North Carolina State, Kentucky
Minnesota 5-3 (APR: 988), remaining games against Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa
Temple 2-6 (APR: 987), remaining games against USF, Houston, Cincinnati, East Carolina
Iowa State 3-5 (APR: 986), remaining games against West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU
Boston College 2-6 (APR: 986), remaining games against Duke, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Syracuse
Too many bowls? I agree, but don’t tell that to the coaches. They love the 15 or so extra practices that bowl participants are allowed. So yes, it’s possible Iowa State, 0-5 in the Big 12, can find itself in the bowl mix for a sixth consecutive season.
What questions do The Register’s text group have before Saturday’s second-to-last home game?
Text-group question: How many times will backs run into the middle of the line, meet the brick wall they always meet, and then lose yardage?
My response: Two things about that. Breece Hall and David Montgomery repeatedly turned up-the-middle handoffs into big plays. If they encountered a defender, they’d muscle their way through him. They gave out as much punishment as they received. I’m not certain Iowa State has backs heathy enough to do that right now. Second, I’m not convinced the offensive line has improved during the season, and you can make a case that it’s regressed in some games. Why? The left side of the line and center Trevor Downing have started every game, but the right side hasn’t seen that same continuity.
Text-group question: Is Jirehl Brock really back to 100%, and if so, will that be enough to get the running game going and take some pressure off Hunter Dekkers?
My response: Campbell said Tuesday he expects both Brock and Cartevious Norton to play Saturday. Anything positive from them prevents defenses from loading up on pass defense. That’s been a problem. Why focus on stopping a non-existent rushing game? I asked receiver Dimitri Stanley on Tuesday how much multi-teaming defense he has experienced. He said it happens on nearly every play to him, Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel.
Text-group question: Would an offensive makeover, from play calling to personnel, salvage the remainder of the season?
More:Meaningful November games take a different definition for Iowa State football this year
My response: Unless the second coming of Hall or Montgomery suddenly shows up – no. That’s nothing against Brock and Norton. It’s about their injuries limiting what the offense can do. Other than Dekkers playing under center, rather than behind center, on short-yardage situations, nothing drastically visible is changing. The staff would have already tried that if it were an option. Campbell isn’t heavily into trick plays. Noel won’t be taking occasional wildcat snaps, and the tight ends suddenly won’t turn into Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen. The only thing that can change is better execution and a healthy Brock and Norton.
The Breakdown
West Virginia (1-4, 3-5) at Iowa State (0-5, 3-5)
Time, TV, Tipico line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN+, Iowa State by 7½ points
Where Iowa State has the edge: West Virginia allows a Big 12-worst 34.6 points a game. The Mountaineers have given up an average of 417.9 yards, but here’s where Iowa State has the edge: the 18 touchdown passes West Virginia has allowed are the most by a Big 12 team. The Mountaineers’ 283.9-yard pass defense is better than only Oklahoma State. Could this be a game during which the Cyclones’ passing game flourishes, weather permitting?
Where West Virginia has the edge: I’m not sure there is an edge for the Mountaineers, other than Iowa State’s five-game Big 12 losing streak. If West Virginia can find a way to turn the Cyclones’ poor rushing game into an advantage, then maybe.
Prediction: This pick didn’t take a lot of time. When I heard Campbell say that Brock would be back and insinuate Norton would likely be healthy, my thoughts leaned toward the Cyclones. Picking a team with a long losing streak is tough, but what the heck. IOWA STATE 21, WEST VIRGINIA 7
Saturday’s other Big 12 games
Baylor (3-2, 5-3) at Oklahoma (2-3, 5-3)
Time, TV, line: 2 p.m., ESPN+, Oklahoma by 3½ points
Prediction: Is Oklahoma’s defense as good as it was last week against Iowa State, or was it just the Cyclones’ lack of an offense? The Sooners will find out against a team with a solid offense. This could go down to a last possession, and many times those go to the home team. OKLAHOMA 27, BAYLOR 24
No. 18 Oklahoma State (3-2, 6-2) at Kansas (2-3, 5-3)
Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., FS1, Oklahoma State by 2½ points
Prediction: I cannot imagine Mike Gundy following last week’s 48-0 blowout loss against Kansas State with another stinker. That eye-popping deficit was the largest margin of defeat since Gundy became the coach in 2005. OKLAHOMA STATE 34, KANSAS 30.
Texas (3-2, 5-3) at No. 14 Kansas State (4-1, 6-2)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, Texas by 2½ points
Prediction: Can Kansas State concoct another one like last Saturday? The Wildcats are at home in what will be a chilly evening game. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers hasn’t been the greatest this season, which is significant. Chris Klieman’s Wildcats have visions of playing in the conference championship game, as well as momentum from a week ago. KANSAS STATE 31, TEXAS 28
Texas Tech (2-3, 4-4) at No. 7 TCU (5-0, 8-0)
Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FOX, TCU by 9½ points
Prediction: This should be one of the easier picks on the board. There’s no way college football’s surprise team should lose this game. TCU is playing at home. The Horned Frogs are 8-0. Quarterback Max Duggan is one of the top stories in the country. Oh, by the way, TCU’s average of 518.6 yards a game is fourth nationally. TCU 41, Texas Tech 24.
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson embarked on his 50th year of writing sports for the Des Moines Register in December 2021. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter @RandyPete.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Could Iowa State football earn a bowl bid this season?
