Peterson: Iowa State-Big 12 predictions include McDonald, Cyclones-Sooners and Dekkers
AMES − It's that time of week again. Let’s make some predictions about this week's Iowa State and Big 12 football games.
The Cyclones’ Will McDonald will get the two sacks he needs to become the Big 12 Conference career sacks leader. He’ll own the record during the fourth quarter of Saturday’s 11 a.m. game against Oklahoma at Jack Trice Stadium.
Offensive coordinator Tom Manning will be calling plays for an offense that finally has healthy running backs, starting with Jirehl Brock and Cartevious Norton.
Quarterback Hunter Dekkers, coming off a career-best performance two weeks ago at Texas, will have an even better game, because healthy rushers mean the offense won’t be as one-dimensional, which means the defense can’t focus only on the pass.
Xavier Hutchinson’s 12 receptions will include two touchdowns.
The Cyclones respond to four one-score losses in a row with a one-score victory.
Too much positive for a team that’s 3-4 overall, 0-4 in the Big 12 and facing a must-win against an Oklahoma team that’s in a similar situation?
Sure, but is it really possible to lose a fifth one-score game in a row, and 15 out of 24 one-score decisions since Campbell saved the program in 2016?
As usual, I went to The Register’s dependable and loyal text group. I asked what questions they had about Iowa State’s return to football for the first time since Dekkers completed 25 of 36 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns in a three-point loss at Texas two Saturdays ago.
Their questions, predictably, encompassed all aspects of the team, but mostly they wanted to know just how important a victory is in Saturday’s game.
Text-group question: What defines success Saturday?
Me: A win, and nothing less than that. The clock is ticking on bowl eligibility for a sixth season in a row. Success will be winning; anything else would be one of those moral victory things that don't mean a hoot when you need three more wins to reach the postseason. Moral victories happen when bad programs show some signs of good. Iowa State, under Campbell, has been (and still is) a good program. It played in the Big 12 championship game just two seasons ago. The Cyclones faced Oklahoma in that contest.
Text-group question: If the injured running backs are ready to play again, what’s that mean for the offense?
Me: A fully healthy offense means re-discovering playbook pages that deal with a balanced offense. The past three games, 59.8% of Iowa State plays have been passing. That’s not all bad, considering Dekkers is a 67.7% passer, but it means defenses have been able to concentrate more on passing than rushing. A healthy Brock and Norton, as Campbell alluded to Tuesday, means the offense won’t be as predictable.
Text-group question: Iowa State seemed to play better at Texas when the offense moved quickly. Will there be even more of that against Oklahoma on Saturday?
Me: Tempo and pace, probably the same thing, were brought up a lot in our media sessions with Campbell and Manning. Both gave every indication that will be the plan Saturday, but in order to have pace, you must be running a series of successful, quick-striking plays. Maybe healthy running backs will make that possible. Dekkers has proven he can handle that flow, which features receivers finding midrange open spaces and their quickness off the line of scrimmage. Keep an eye on Xavier Hutchinson, Jaylin Noel and Dimitri Stanley. With their speed, they thrive on quick-striking plays. And with a quick, get-to-scrimmage-quickly plan, it's virtually impossible for opponents to pull off a last-second jailbreak blitz to the quarterback.
Text-group question: Must win?
Me: You can bet your bowl streak Saturday falls in must-win land. Four losses in a row, regardless of how close those scores were, can do that for a program that’s only halfway to reaching the postseason. With five regular-season games remaining, finding three more wins (at least) becomes the final-stretch goal. That starts Saturday, unless you think Iowa State can win at Oklahoma State and/or TCU.
The Breakdown
Oklahoma (1-3, 4-3) at Iowa State (0-4, 3-4)
Time, TV, Tipico line: 11 a.m., FS1, Oklahoma by 1½ points
Where Iowa State has the edge: Where would the Cyclones be without the Big 12’s best defense? That’s a plus against a team that averages 471.9 yards a game, including 222.8 on the ground. Iowa State’s passing game can be an advantage, too, against a pass defense that’s in the middle of the Big 12. I’m not sure many teams can cover Iowa State’s Big Three − Hutchinson, Noel and Stanley − at the same time. If the Sooners accomplish that, then Dekkers has decent tuck-and-run ability.
Where Oklahoma has the edge: The Sooners are coming off a 52-42 winning high after beating Kansas in their last game. Dillon Gabriel is among the top versatile quarterbacks in the Big 12, which can cause problems. Running back Eric Gray averages nearly 100 rushing yards a game. It’ll be interesting to see how the Cyclones defend Marvin Mims, who averages a conference-leading 17 yards a reception.
Prediction: Who would have thought these teams would enter Saturday morning’s game with a 1-7 combined conference record? That’s weird, considering just two seasons ago, they were the Big 12’s best two teams. Both are coming off bye weeks. The Sooners are trending better, considering they’ve got a conference win (against Kansas). The Cyclones haven’t trended positive since running backs got hurt. IOWA STATE 27, OKLAHOMA 24.
Saturday’s other Big 12 games
No. 7 TCU (4-0, 7-0) at West Virginia (1-3, 3-4)
Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., ESPN, TCU by 7½ points
Prediction: Max Duggan will have his way against one of the Big 12’s woeful pass defenses. The crafty Iowan has completed 133 of 193 passes for 1,871 yards and 19 touchdowns. His 69.8 completion percentage is the conference’s best. Duggan also has rushed for 274 yards. No way West Virginia slows him. TCU 37, WEST VIRGINIA 24.
No. 9 Oklahoma State (3-1, 6-1) at Kansas State (3-1, 5-2)
Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., FOX, Kansas State by 1½ points
Prediction: Does Kansas State have a healthy quarterback, after both Adrian Martinez and Will Howard were injured last Saturday? Can Oklahoma State slow running back Deuce Vaughn, whose opportunities may increase, if the quarterback isn’t producing? Neither team have brag-worthy defenses. Last possession wins a shootout? OKLAHOMA STATE 41, KANSAS STATE 34
Baylor (2-2, 4-3) at Texas Tech (2-2, 4-3)
Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., ESPN2, Texas Tech by 2½ points
Prediction: I like the Red Raiders for a couple reasons. First, quarterback Behren Morton has been impressive in his last two games, completing 67 of 107 passes for 704 yards and four touchdowns. Next, the game’s in Lubbock. It’s a night game. And if you’ve ever been at the west Texas stadium for a night game, you’ll know what I mean. TEXAS TECH 31, BAYLOR 28
Peterson: Iowa State soccer allegations are alarming, especially in year 50 of Title IX
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson embarked on his 50th year of writing sports for the Des Moines Register in December 2021. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter at @RandyPete.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football predictions vs OU: Will ISU end losing streak?
