Peterson: Predictions include Iowa State can't blow rare 3-0 opportunity by falling in an Ohio trap

AMES — I don’t know if you’d call Saturday’s Ohio vs. Iowa State matchup a trap football game, but the 1 p.m. contest at Jack Trice Stadium certainly has potential for the ultimate bushwhack.

What if Matt Campbell’s team is still riding the emotional high after winning at Iowa last Saturday? What if the Cyclones weren’t able to re-ground enough to go to 3-0 for the first time since 2012?

And also important: What if they’re looking so much toward being unbeaten heading into next week’s Big 12 opener against Baylor that they forget the principles that got them through the first two games?

Do I think that’ll happen? No. But I also know what happened last weekend in college football — Marshall beating Notre Dame in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus, App State winning at Texas A&M, and Georgia Southern being the final nail in Scott Frost’s Cornhusker coaching coffin.

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Campbell has been there. He’s done that. He knows a little about what might be going through minds of the Ohio players his team faces on Saturday. His Toledo team in 2015 beat No. 18 Arkansas in Little Rock.

“I was really upset because our first game got rained out,” Campbell said Tuesday of that 2015 season. “I had to sit in the locker room until 1 in the morning before they finally canceled the game, so I was hot. I wasn't real happy going into Arkansas week.”

Add that to a MAC team seeking headlines against a Power Five from the SEC, and you’ve got the recipe for an upset, which happened to the tune of Toledo 16, Arkansas 12.

“When you’re there,” Campbell said, “you look forward to these opportunities because you get to measure yourself where you are, where your growth is, and knowing that if everything you're doing, you have the opportunity to compete in these environments on these stages.”

As usual for this space, I reached out to The Register’s Iowa State text group for opinions on what they expect to see during Saturday’s game. As I’ve told the group repeatedly – their thoughts are important.

Here we go with text-group responses regarding this week’s game:

General comments about the game

Text group comments:

• This is a coach's, player's, sports journalist cliche game. As my father used to say, "Any team can beat any other team on any given day. That's why they play the game." Just ask Texas A&M and Notre Dame this past weekend.

• Hunter Dekkers is turning out to be the real deal. He will give us a chance to be better than expected.

• Matt Campbell is smart enough not to take Ohio for granted, but can he get the team up for a school they will be expected to trounce? I liked the postgame interviews, with players saying (Iowa) was a great win, but just the second game and that it was time to focus on the next game.

• So easy to make Ohio look like Marshall or Appalachian State … Let's build on the momentum.

• Love the look of Will McDonald over the center.

• Lots of big upsets in Week 2. Don't want our game against Ohio to be one in Week 3.

• Linebacker Colby Reeder is on the verge of folk hero status.

What do you want to see from the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday?

Text group comments:

• No fumbles.

• Get off to a good start, and put the game away early. I'm so tired of games that go down to the wire, as so many of them have been in the past. Here is an opponent that ISU should beat by a comfortable margin.

• This is a great game to put polish on both sides of the ball. Execute. Clean up blocking assignments, coverage rotations, and special (punt) teams. I want to see a clean, sound, well executed game for four quarters.

• I want to see total domination on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, getting out of the game injury-free before conference play starts is the most important.

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• I think we will see the defense score, and Jirehl Brock will get 100 rushing yards before halftime.

• More plays to the tight ends. Fewer quarterback off-tackle keepers. Greg Gaines. Cleaned up special teams.

Who are your Iowa State MVPs for Saturday?

Text group comments:

• Offensive MVP: Hunter Dekkers. I want to see him have a great game, and put up some big numbers with no interceptions, now that he's got a little more game experience under his belt.

• Defensive MVP: Boy, it is so hard to say, with several very good players on D. I'll go with (linebacker) Colby Reeder because of his consistency over the first two games, and the interception against Iowa.

• Offensive MVP will be running back Jirehl Brock. He'll have a big day in a run-heavy offense, as we burn clock. On defense, it will be Will McDonald with two sacks and another fumble recovery.

• Defensively this could be McDonald’s week. He was strong against Iowa, and it would be fun to see him handle Ohio nearly single-handed.

The Breakdown

Ohio (1-1) at Iowa State (2-0)

Time, TV, Tipico line: 1 p.m., ESPN+, Iowa State by 18½ points

Where Iowa State has the edge: Ohio’s defense wasn’t impressive in last week’s 46-10 loss at Penn State. Iowa State’s offense was solid against Iowa. The 99-yard scoring drive was 12 minutes of beauty, and something that might not be repeated in a long time. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers could have a big game against a defense that allowed 338 passing yards vs. the Lions. Running back Jirehl Brock will be looking for his third 100-yard rushing game in a row, against a defense that gave up 234 rushing yards last Saturday. All that, plus the game is at Jack Trice Stadium, where fan buzz is very high.

Where Ohio has the edge: The only way the Bobcats stay close in this game is if Iowa State continues to turn over the ball. Considering Iowa blocked two Cyclone punts last Saturday, that could be an area for Ohio to exploit. And, of course, there’s also the look-ahead factor.

Prediction: If this game reminds you of Iowa State’s tough win against Drake in 2018, well, I’m not expecting that to happen Saturday. Cyclone players are focused on heading into Big 12 play next week with the first 3-0 record since 2012. Clean up mistakes, and then it’s the unbeaten Cyclones against the Bears next Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa State 31, Ohio 17.

Saturday’s other Big 12 games

(All times CT, lines from Tipico Sportsbook)

Texas State (1-1) at No. 19 Baylor (1-1)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FS1, Baylor by 29 1/2 points

Prediction: Texas State hangs with Baylor for a half, then gradually it’s a four-touchdown blowout. The Bears have something to prove after losing at BYU in overtime last Saturday. In that game, quarterback Blake Shapen completed 18 of 28 passes for just 137 yards. Also in that game, Baylor’s rushing netted just 152 yards, while averaging only 2.9 yards a rush.  Baylor 34, Texas State 3.

No. 6 Oklahoma (2-0) at Nebraska (1-1)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FOX, Oklahoma by 11½ points

Prediction: This should be a no-brainer after Nebraska’s early-game, new-coach emotion reverts to reality. While expecting the Cornhuskers to play well in the early-going, expect also Oklahoma maintaining its defense, quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s very good quarterback play (36-of-51 for 529 yards and five touchdowns) and Brent Venables coming out of the game 3-for-3 in his first season as a head coach. Oklahoma 44, Nebraska 31.

Towson (2-0) at West Virginia (0-2)

Time, TV, line: Noon, ESPN+, West Virginia by 31 points

Prediction: West Virginia had 505 yards and 27 first downs – and still lost at home last week against Kansas. Quarterback J.T. Daniels will take control of this game, and he’s got the credentials to do it, considering the West Virginia passer has completed 50 of 79 passes for 570 yards and five touchdowns. The Mountaineers losing three in a row is a long shot. West Virginia 41, Towson 17.

Tulane (2-0) at Kansas State (2-0)

Time, TV, line: 2 p.m., ESPN+, Kansas State by 14½ points

Prediction: The stats show Tulane at No. 2 nationally in total defense, allowing opponents an average of 163.0 yards a game. Those opponents were UMass (42-10) and Alcorn State (52-0). The Green Wave may be good, but going to 3-0 will be a chore. They’ve not played against anyone yet like Deuce Vaughn (42 rushes, 271 yards this season). Kansas State 24, Tulane 17.

Kansas (2-0) at Houston (1-1)

Time, TV, line: 3 p.m., ESPNU, Houston by 8½  points

Prediction: If the Jayhawks can rally from a 14-zip deficit to win in overtime at West Virginia, like they did last week, then winning Saturday at Houston should be next on the docket. It won’t be a breeze for Kansas, the nation’s highest-scoring team (55.5 points a game), but it’s certainly possible. Jayhawks running back Devin Neal has averaged 10.7 yards per rush, and quarterback Jalon Daniels has completed 70.2 percent of his passes.  Houston allows 34.0 points a game. Kansas 41, Houston 31.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-0) at No. 7 Oklahoma State (2-0)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., Big 12 Now, Oklahoma State by 47½ points

Prediction: Mike Gundy’s team moved into the top 10 after a weekend of upsets. There’s every reason to think the Cowboys will continue their climb up the polls. Oklahoma State 34, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17.

Texas Tech (2-0) at North Carolina State (2-0)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPNU, North Carolina State by 10½ points

Prediction: N.C. State was going to be favored in this game even before Donovan Smith threw three picks and was sacked five times during a 33-30 double-overtime win against Houston last Saturday. It might be close. The outcome could even go into OT. There will be many points scored. North Carolina State 41, Texas Tech 31.

Texas-San Antonio (1-1) at No. 20 Texas (1-1)

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., LHN, Texas by 12½ points

Prediction: Even with quarterback Quinn Ewers sidelined for a while after spraining something in his left shoulder against Alabama, Steve Sarkisian's team should cruise in this game. It’s not like he’s using a throw-in backup quarterback. The now-starter is Hudson Card, who battled Ewers to the end of camp to see who would be No. 1. Longhorns tailback Bijan Robinson, who injured a shoulder last Saturday, played throughout the game. A sizable Texas lead could enable him some fourth-quarter rest. Texas 38, Texas-San Antonio 24.

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson embarked on his 50th year of writing sports for the Des Moines Register in December 2021. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter at @RandyPete.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State can have a rare 3-0 start, assuming it avoids an Ohio trap