Peterson: Iowa State-Southeast Missouri prediction includes a celebratory day for Hunter Dekkers
AMES — Different quarterback. Different running back. Different this and that.
But despite all the Iowa State football changes from last season, one head-scratching storyline remains — freaky September, when the Cyclones have been a safe bet to keep fans on edge of their seats from opening kickoff till the final play.
I’ve stopped asking coach Matt Campbell about his pre-October record that reads 9-13 heading into Saturday’s 1 p.m. game against Southeast Missouri at Jack Trice Stadium. Whatever the veteran coach says, results seemingly are always the same.
Close, down-to-the-wire, one-possession games.
The Cyclones are 37-point favorites to win just their fourth season-opening game since 2016 Saturday, but watch, it’ll be anyone’s game heading into the fourth quarter.
Iowa State’s six season openers have included three one-possession games. Also on the Game 1 resume is a 31-14 loss against Louisiana despite being an 11½-point favorite. And then there's a 10-point loss at Iowa in 2018, and a 25-20 defeat against Northern Iowa in 2016.
Buckle up. That roller coaster starts again on Saturday.
Iowa State fans have a voice
I’m changing up this format a bit from the past. I’m asking The Register’s Iowa State text group for input on three questions that I'll provide for each game. Additionally, each Saturday night or early Sunday after games, I’ll seek the group’s opinions of what they just saw. There’s still plenty of seats at this text-group table. Stop by. It’ll be fun. Here we go with text-group responses to this week's pregame questions:
More: Iowa State’s Hunter Dekkers has been awaiting this opportunity for a long time
What defines a good performance from Hunter Dekkers?
Text-group members say:
I want to see some long, controlled drives, using all the receivers, running backs, and having ample time to throw the ball.
Downfield passing, while also showing he can make simple short throws. While we cannot expect any QB to be as accurate as Brock Purdy, I’d like to see Dekkers in the ballpark.
20-to-25 completions, 2-to-3 touchdown passes, more than 250 passing yards, 50 rushing yards, and consistency and command in running the offense.
Your Week 1 Iowa State offensive and defensive MVPs and why?
Text-group members say:
Offense: Jirehl Brock, because we need to be able to run the ball. Defense: Beau Freyler, because we need to limit SEMO’s defense, and we lost a lot of seniors from last year.
Offense: Xavier Hutchinson catching balls against a non-veteran secondary, 100-plus receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Defense: Linebacker Colby Reeder leads the team in tackles.
Offense: Brock gets off to a solid start. Defense: Something tells me Reeder is really good. and he'll show it on Saturday.
What are your expectations for the team on Saturday?
Text-group members say:
It's time the o-line shows up. They need to be proving they can be a weapon. If the offensive line doesn't really show up, then next week in Iowa City will be more of the same.
I expect a slow start, putting the game away in the second and third quarters, and then coasting through the fourth.
It’s a Matt Campbell-led team against a lower-level opponent in the first game of the season. I’m expecting a very vanilla game that will feel frustrating to fans who want a faster start than in season’s past.
More: Randy Peterson's Big 12 predictions for the 2022 season
The Breakdown
Southeast Missouri (4-7 last year) at Iowa State (7-6 last year)
Time, TV, Tipico line: 1 p.m., ESPN+, Iowa State by 37 points.
Where Southeast Missouri has the edge: Transfer quarterback Paxton DeLaurent could be a surprise, considering Iowa State doesn’t have a ton of tape on him. “We’ve tried to study him on some YouTube videos,” Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock said. Redhawks running back Geno Hess (1,116 yards last season) could be a weapon, as well. “He's a hard-tackle guy,” Heacock said. “You're going to need two, three or four guys to tackle him.”
Where Iowa State has the edge: This is one of those games in which the Cyclones should have an advantage throughout the field. While SEMO is one of the favorites in the Ohio Valley Conference, it’s nothing like what the Cyclones will face starting next Saturday against Iowa in Iowa City. Will the Redhawks keep All-American defensive end Will McDonald IV from chasing the quarterback?
Prediction: Hunter Dekkers will take advantage of a leaky defense with a barrage of mid-range and even a few long completions. He’ll watch some of the fourth quarter from the sidelines, while backups close out his first starting victory. Ditto tailback Jirehl Brock, although he started in last season’s Cheez-It Bowl. And also this: Iowa State picks up the tempo and scores frequently after a close first quarter. Iowa State 41, Southeast Missouri 16
More: Peterson: New Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark touts bold vision. He'll need it.
Saturday’s other Big 12 games
(All times CT, lines from Tipico Sportbook)
Texas-El Paso (7-6) at No. 9 Oklahoma (11-2)
Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., FOX, Oklahoma by 31½ points
Prediction: There’s no way Brent Venables loses his first game as the Sooners’ head coach, and that’s not because UTEP lost its Week Zero opener 31-13 at home against North Texas. Despite having around 40 players that haven’t even suited up for an Oklahoma game, this will be a significant blowout. The lengthy list of newcomers includes quarterback Dillon Gabriel, a UCF transfer. Oklahoma 52, Texas-El Paso 17.
Albany (2-9) at No. 10 Baylor (12-2)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN+, Baylor by 26½ points
Prediction: This is the first of many opportunities for quarterback Blake Shapen to validate coach Dave Aranda picking him over 2021 starter Gerry Bohanon. Baylor football expectations have never been higher after beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game last season. The Bears will light up the scoreboard not only because they can, but also because big wins look impressive on postseason resumes. Baylor 57 Albany 13.
South Dakota (7-5) at Kansas State (8-5)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN+, Kansas State by 23 points
Prediction: Adrian Martinez, the Nebraska transfer and Chris Kleiman’s starting quarterback, gets his first opportunity to prove himself in front of fans who aren’t nearly as demanding as the ones he just left. He’ll have a major impact, providing he’s not reckless with the ball. This could be a dangerous offense, with new coordinator Collin Klein calling the shots. Don’t forget All-American running back Deuce Vaughn. Kansas State 40, South Dakota 20.
Murray State (6-5) at Texas Tech (7-6)
Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., ESPN+, Texas Tech by 24 points
Prediction: This is as close to a must-win game as they come, with a new coach, new staff and quarterback Tyler Shough still not doing much after transferring from Oregon. No one’s predicting a blowout, considering the Red Raiders' defense could be as bad as it has ever been. Texas Tech 42, Murray State 27.
Louisiana-Monroe (4-8) at Texas (5-7)
Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., Longhorn Network, Texas by 37½ points
Prediction: Steve Sarkisian isn’t going to let anything nasty happen in this game. Hand the ball to Bijan Robinson and watch him shred the defense. Call some passing plays for Ohio State transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers. Get momentum for the next game, against Alabama. Texas 63, Louisiana-Monroe 13.
Thursday: Central Michigan (9-4) at No. 11 Oklahoma State (12-2)
Time, TV, line: Thursday 6 p.m., FS1, Oklahoma State by 22 1/2 points
Prediction: It seems like Spencer Sanders has been the Cowboys' quarterback forever. He leads what will be a very good offense, and when he's not one the field, he can watch one of the nation's top defenses. Oklahoma State 37, Central Michigan 17
Thursday: West Virginia (6-7) at No. 16 Pittsburgh (11-3)
Time, TV, line: Thursday, 6 p.m., ESPN, Pittsburgh by 7 1/2 points
Prediction: I'm intrigued by West Virginia transfer quarterback J.T. Daniels. He started his career at USC, then went to Georgia, and now is in the Big 12 Conference. Pitt doesn't have quarterback Kenny Pickett anymore, and that makes this Backyard Brawl quite intriguing. West Virginia 30, Pittsburgh 27
Friday: Tennessee Tech (3-8) at Kansas (2-10)
Time, TV, line: Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN+, Kansas by 27 1/2 points.
Prediction: Curious about Kansas being a four-touchdown favorite? You're not alone. I think the Jayhawks win, but not by 27 points. Kansas 37, Tennessee Tech 20
Friday: TCU (5-7) at Colorado (4-8)
Time, TV, line: Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN+, TCU by 11 1/2 points
Prediction: Iowan Max Duggan is still running the TCU show. It should be a very good offense the 29-game starter in in charge of in Sonny Dykes' first season as the head coach. TCU 38, Colorado 37
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson embarked on his 50th year of writing sports for the Des Moines Register in December 2021. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter at @RandyPete.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football vs. SEMO predictions, records and answers
