Iowa State’s defense is the Big 12 Conference’s best, having allowed an average of just 18.3 points during the 0-3 conference start. Texas is just coming off hanging an eye-popping 49 points on Oklahoma.

Iowa State plays the 24^th-ranked Longhorns at 11 a.m. Saturday in Austin, a game in which the Cyclones’ defense against Texas’ offense is one of those must-see subplots that show up every so often.

Sure, Iowa State has a shot. It plays one-score games, or so it seems. Many times, Matt Campbell’s team is within a point. Or a successful field goal.

And don’t forget that this program has responded to adversity with big-time upsets in recent years.

More:Peterson: More questions than answers when it comes to Iowa State football’s offense

Can it happen on Saturday against a program that looks as if it’s going to fare better in the SEC than many expected? Sure, but do the Cyclones have the kind of firepower right now that it takes to win a big game like this?

If the defense plays the game of its life, then maybe Iowa State returns to Ames with a W. But the Cyclones must somehow score touchdowns, something they’ve had problems doing as of late.

“When those guys are playing their best football, I think that's what's really powerful,” Campbell said about his overall team. “That's why it gives you so much optimism. There was a really good buzz, a great buzz, on Sunday, when we went to the meeting room.

“Here's what it is. Here's where we're at. Here's how we’ve got to go forward. So I think there is a very confident room − a room that’s continued to work at their craft to continue to plug away to figure out the answers to get us over that hump.”

The Register’s Iowa State text group is mixed on that feeling. Some believe this is prime time for another of those upset specials. Others know this could be a nasty outcome.

Text-group question: Are the Longhorns for real? Looking for one of those Matt Campbell Upset Specials.

My comment: The Longhorns are for real. Beating Oklahoma 49-zip shows me that Steve Sarkisian's program isn’t going to be overmatched after joining the SEC. Recruiting is as good as it has ever been in the Forty Acres world. Sark is a good coach, and he’s only getting better. There may be setbacks, but over the long haul, the Longhorns will be favored to win a lot of games.

As for this being an Iowa State upset special, I guess anything is possible, but remember, those upsets since the 2017 season came with NFL tailbacks as prominent rushers − first David Montgomery, and more recently Breece Hall. They were durable. They absorbed every hit. They were fortunate. And they were big reasons for the upsets against Oklahoma and TCU in 2017, Oklahoma State in 2018 with a newcomer named Brock Purdy at the quarterback throttle, Texas in 2019, Oklahoma and the Longhorns in 2020, and Oklahoma State last season.

Campbell has rallied his team from adversity. Those teams, though, had the offensive playmakers to make surprising outcomes happen. I’m not sure this team has that same caliber of player.

More:Peterson: Iowa State football fans wonder about the offense and Matt Campbell's postgame comment

Text-group comment: Jaylin Noel taking direct snaps from center would be interesting. So would more planned Hunter Dekkers running plays.

My response: Interesting you bring this up. I asked Campbell about that Tuesday − the Dekkers running the ball part.

“I think those are always options,” Campbell said. “I think the biggest thing for us, is you’re still trying to put yourself in the best situation schematically to be successful. Schematically, it worked out for (Dekkers) to be able to do that, and it kind of loosens things up at times.

“So, the answer is Hunter can run, and yes, you’re always trying to do what is in the best interest of the team, and give him the best opportunity to be successful, as well.”

Translation? If Jirehl Brock isn’t healthy enough to do much more than block, then Dekkers just might provide a consistent rushing option. You’d think he could gain at least three yards each play, minus the sack yardage. Once the defense figures out that it has to defend a running quarterback, then maybe that loosens up receivers.

And Noel behind center? I’m a fan.

More:Iowa State's Matt Campbell gives injury update for Jirehl Brock ahead of Texas matchup

Text-group question: How does Iowa State defend quarterback Quinn Ewers and tailback Bijan Robinson?

My comment: This is the very intriguing game within the game to watch, Texas’ offense against the Iowa State defense.

While Ewers isn’t much of a rushing threat, he’s completed 46 of 67 passes for 648 yards and six touchdowns against one interception in three games since returning from injury. He's good, to say the least.

Iowa State counters with a pass defense that’s limited three Big 12 opponents to an average of 198.6 passing yards a game. Jon Heacock's guys also are good, to say the least.

Robinson is second in conference rushing, with 645 yards on 110 carries. He’s also a top-notch receiver.

More:Iowa State football mailbag: What's wrong with the Cyclone offense?

The Cyclones respond with a defense that’s allowed conference opponents 122.0 rushing yards a game.

The game within a game.

Bring it on.

The Breakdown

Iowa State (0-3, 3-3) at No. 24 Texas (2-1, 4-2)

Time, TV, Tipico line: 11 a.m., ABC, Texas by 16½  points.

Where Iowa State has the edge: Is this the game defensive end Will McDonald becomes the Big 12’s career sacks leader? He needs 1½ sacks to share the career record of 34 set by Texas A&M’s Aaron Hunt, and he’s facing an opponent against whom teams average 1½ sacks a game. The time might be right.

Where Texas has the edge: Iowa State defended Kansas State’s QB-TB dynamic duo of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn pretty well, limiting them to just a Martinez touchdown pass in the Cyclones’ 10-9 loss. The defense has another test in quarterback Quinn Ewers and running back Bijan Robinson. Iowa State’s defense must contend with Ja’Tavion Sanders and Xavier Worthy, who have combined for nine receiving touchdowns. Translated: The Longhorns have the best all-around offense Iowa State will have faced.

Prediction: Here’s a thought. Let’s say the Longhorns are still riding the Oklahoma high from a week ago. Let’s say they’re mildly looking ahead to next Saturday’s game at Oklahoma State. Let’s say Iowa State’s defense plays the game of the century and scores a touchdown or two. And let’s say the special teams thrive with maybe a kick return for a touchdown. Having all that happen on the same day, in Austin, in front of 100,000 fans who remember just as well as the Texas players that Iowa State has won the past three games in this series, isn’t likely. Texas 34, Iowa State 27.

Thursday night

No. 23 Baylor (1-1, 3-2) at West Virginia (0-2, 2-3)

Time, TV, Tipico, line: 7 p.m., FS1, Baylor by 3½  points

Prediction: If Baylor is as good as everyone thought it’d be, then the Bears had better beat a West Virginia team that’s solid, but not great. Baylor is fresh from an off week, so the team, including quarterback Blake Shapen, should be plenty rested. West Virginia won’t have top tailback C.J. Donaldson; he’s still in concussion protocol. The outcome will be close probably of the one-possession variety. The Mountaineers will become the third team with an 0-3 Big 12 record. Baylor 27, West Virginia 24.

Saturday’s other games

No. 20 Kansas (2-1, 5-1) at Oklahoma (0-3, 3-3)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., ESPN2, Oklahoma by 9½  points.

Prediction: I wasn’t going to pick Kansas in this game, even if star quarterback Jalon Daniels was expected to play. He’s expected to miss the game after injuring his right shoulder in last week’s loss against TCU. Jason Bean, a more than capable backup after starting most games last season, will face a Sooners team that's hopping mad after losing three Big 12 Conference games in a row. The guess here is the momentum to break the losing streak is overpowering, regardless who quarterbacks the Jayhawks. Oklahoma 38, Kansas 27

No. 7 Oklahoma State (2-0, 5-0) at No. 15 TCU (2-0, 5-0)

Time, TV, line: 2:20 p.m., ABC, TCU by 3½  points.

Prediction: Could the two high-scoring teams combine for 100 points? Probably not, but TCU’s 46.4-point scoring average and Oklahoma State’s 45.2 create the likelihood for an entertaining game. Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders averages 327.0 yards of total offense. He’s been responsible for 18 passing and rushing touchdowns. Neither team plays what you’d typically call lockdown defense. TCU has Council Bluffs native Max Duggan doing very well behind center. Sonny Dykes has done a heck of a job in his first season as the head coach. But in Oklahoma State, the Horned Frogs have met their match. Oklahoma State 45, TCU 41.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Peterson: Iowa State football's key to beating Texas starts on defense