Peterson: It's tough predicting Iowa State-Oklahoma State without knowing who the quarterback is
Jon Heacock doesn’t know which Oklahoma State quarterback his Iowa State defense will face on Saturday in Stillwater. It’s part of the game’s intrigue, and in this case, there’s a whole bunch of unknowns.
Everyone knows injuries have run rampant through Mike Gundy’s team, and that includes the most important position. Will the Cyclones face veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders in the 2:30 p.m. game, or true freshman Garret Rangel, or Gundy’s son, Gunnar?
Gundy isn’t saying, telling reporters this week that “I’m not going to say we’re going to start anybody the rest of the year at any place.”
Until the NCAA or the Big 12 Conference adopts a rule that mandates teams declare which players are in and which players are out, coaches have no obligation to reveal that information. So the Cyclones won’t know for certain which QB they'll face until the Cowboys’ first possession.
I asked Heacock about that Wednesday night. He responded like I figured the veteran coach and one of the nation’s top defensive minds would respond.
“The reality of it is, it’s coach Gundy’s team, first and foremost,” he said. “What they’ve done in 2017, there’s stuff they’re still doing today.
“His hand is still in this football team. They may do some things a little different with the younger guy, or the older guy. We all would, but they’re not changing who they are.”
The Atlantic Coast Conference stopped requiring mandatory participation reports after the 2017 season. With legalized sports betting prevalent these days, some people figured late-week reports would become the norm. Specific reasons for being declared not available would not have to be disclosed.
“We would still go through the same preparations, the same game plan,” Heacock said if participation lists were disclosed. “It wouldn’t change anything that we do.
“We do summer studies of these guys over the last five years. We do spring studies. We’re pretty thorough.”
Iowa State was a 2-point favorite Thursday, which to me shows odds-makers also are uncertain about who’s playing and who’s not playing for the Cowboys.
What’s on the minds of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa State text group heading into this game?
Text-group question: Did Oklahoma State’s loss against Kansas reveal vulnerabilities that Iowa State can exploit?
MY COMMENT: Great question. Kansas got 351 rushing yards against Oklahoma State. Jayhawks quarterback Jason Bean rushed four times for 93 yards and a touchdown. I’m guessing that’s an eye-opener for Cyclones quarterback Hunter Dekkers. Here’s another: Kansas intercepted Cowboys quarterback Garret Rangel three times. This is the best secondary the Cyclones have had in a long time, so that’s a possibility. Matching Kansas’ 37 points is iffy unless the defense chips in with a touchdown or two.
Text-group question: Will Iowa State’s offense be as tricky as it was against West Virginia?
MY COMMENT: I asked head coach Matt Campbell that question this week. “A lot of it is execution,” he said. “You look at when those plays come, you’re executing to get in position to use those plays.
“The biggest thing for us has been inconsistency of execution on the offensive side of the football as we’re growing. You want to consistently earn some of that trust to feel like you can execute some of those plays.
“I think this group is growing. As the growth happens, the playbook expands. That’s got to be the starting point. You’ve got to get a great foundation underneath you. I think this group is starting to get there, but we still have a long way to go, too. Can we just keep going forward against a dynamic defense this week?”
More:Was Iowa State football's fourth-quarter offense a breakthrough or mirage?
My best guess is yes, but as offensive coordinator Tom Manning said Wednesday night, play-calling often is based on how many yards a team gains on first down. Which plays might work? The option was intriguing. The reverse? I liked that play. Quarterback under center? Absolutely.
The Breakdown
Iowa State (1-5, 4-5) at Oklahoma State (3-3, 6-3)
Time, TV, Tipico line: 2:30 p.m., ESPNU, Iowa State by 2 points
Where Iowa State has the edge: The Cyclones should have gained considerable offensive confidence during the 21-point, 137-yard fourth quarter last Saturday against West Virginia. That's when Iowa State rushed for 90 yards and added 47 more through the air. Running back Deon Silas had runs of 33 and 38 yards during the final frame. For the first time this season, the offense actually looked good.
Where Oklahoma State has the edge: Given the reported state of the beaten-up Cowboys, the only advantage might be what exists inside Boone Pickens Stadium. Iowa State is 2-6 there since 2000, and let’s face it – Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is a wonderful coach. However, he needs Spencer Sanders on the field. It’s that simple.
Prediction: I liked Iowa State’s creativity last Saturday, so the anticipation is for similar plays on Saturday. If Sanders is iffy and with the annual Bedlam rivalry against Oklahoma coming up the following Saturday, will Gundy roll the dice and rest him? IOWA STATE 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20.
Saturday’s other Big 12 games
Oklahoma (2-4, 5-4) at West Virginia (1-5, 3-6)
Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FS1, Oklahoma by 8½ points
Prediction: There’s no logical way West Virginia wins this game. There only path leads toward the Mountaineers losing their fourth game in a row and coach Neal Brown eventually losing his job. Oklahoma’s not the greatest, but the Sooners could be looking ahead to the Bedlam rivalry that follows and still win by two touchdowns. OKLAHOMA 37, WEST VIRGINIA 20
Kansas (3-3, 6-3) at Texas Tech (2-4, 4-5)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN+, Texas Tech by 4 points
Prediction: Let’s assume Kansas is over its three-game losing streak, a drought that ended with last Saturday’s 21-point victory against Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2008, but the Jayhawks aren’t likely to stop at just being eligible. If they can score Saturday, they’ll hand Texas Tech its third loss in a row. KANSAS 24, TEXAS TECH 20
Kansas State (4-2, 6-3) at Baylor (4-2, 6-3)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, Baylor by 3 points
Prediction: These teams are part of a three-way battle to see who faces TCU in the Big 12’s championship game. The Bears have won three consecutive games, the Wildcats have lost two of their last three. If Baylor’s very solid rush defense can just keep Deuce Vaughn at or below his 108.3-yard rushing average, then that should be enough for its fourth victory in a row. BAYLOR 37, KANSAS STATE 34
TCU (6-0, 9-0) at Texas (4-2, 6-3)
Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., ABC, Texas by 7 points
Prediction: A preview of the Big 12 championship game? Maybe, but only if Texas wins. ESPN’s GameDay is on the scene. Herbie and Fowler are calling the game for ABC. What’s over-under number for how many times the network zeros in on Gary Patterson, the former TCU coach who now is a Longhorns defensive analyst? Does that swing this game toward Texas? You bet your boots it does. TEXAS 30, TCU 24
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson embarked on his 50th year of writing sports for the Des Moines Register in December 2021. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter @RandyPete.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State-Oklahoma State is chock full of injury-related questions
