Pfizer could sell nearly $100 billion worth of COVID-19 vaccines in the next five years, Morgan Stanley estimates

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Morgan Stanley expects Pfizer to reap nearly $100 billion from its COVID-19 vaccine. Photo by Eduardo MunozAlvarez/VIEWpress

Morgan Stanley estimates Pfizer will rake in nearly $100 billion from COVID-19 vaccine sales over the next five years.

Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine will earn about $96.1 billion by 2025, primarily during this year and next when demand for vaccines is the highest, Morgan Stanley said in an analyst note released May 9.

Morgan Stanley tripled its prior estimate of $32 billion in revenue for COVID-19 vaccine sales over a four-year span.

The bank said its projection is contingent on if the World Trade Organization does not lift vaccine patents, but said the firm will "watch future news."

World leaders, humanitarians, doctors, and other interest groups are pushing President Joe Biden to suspend vaccine patents, by way of a waiver at the World Trade Organization. The move would lift intellectual property rights of pharmaceutical firms and allow drugmakers around the world to replicate the vaccine.

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Morgan Stanley's expectations balloons Pfizer's own sales projections. The pharma giant said it expects the vaccine to bring in $26 billion in revenue this year through expected sales of 1.6 billion doses.

Sales of the COVID-19 vaccine made up the bulk of Pfizer's first-quarter revenue of $14.6, the firm reported on a recent call to investors. The company projects 2021 revenues to fall between $70.5 billion and $72.5 billion, a more than $10 billion increase over guidance from February.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said on a recent earnings call he expects demand for the vaccine to increase as younger people get approved for jabs and once the company releases booster shots to protect against variant strains.

While fellow drugmakers Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca pledged not to profit from the vaccine during the height of the pandemic, Pfizer has profited off of vaccine sales in wealthy countries.

Pfizer declined to comment on the Morgan Stanley note.

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