Philippe, Rina: Will Florida get hurricane forecasts if there's a government shutdown?

C. A. Bridges, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·4 min read
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As a government shutdown looms, furloughing tens of thousands of federal employees and potentially affecting millions of Americans, one question is of particular importance to Floridians during an increasingly busy hurricane season with two newly formed tropical storms out there:

Will we still get hurricane forecasts if the government shuts down?

You can relax.

"The work of the NWS is critical and necessary to protect life and property in the country and parts of the world through international agreements," said Sarah Teefey, National Weather Service meteorologist, in an email. "Under a lapse of appropriation, the day-to-day operational work of the National Weather Service continues."

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a division of the National Weather Service (NWS), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is a branch of the U.S. Department of Commerce, which will be affected by any government shutdowns.

However, personnel in the federal government who are deemed "essential" will continue working. The NWS will continue to provide critical forecast, watch and warning information to protect life and property as it has in previous shutdowns.

Will I still get tropical weather forecasts and hurricane maps if the government shutdown happens?

The front page of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website during the 2018-2019 government shutdown.
The front page of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website during the 2018-2019 government shutdown.

Yes. You shouldn't see a break in service or quality, although nonessential areas of the NOAA, NHC and NWS websites will not be updated, and the hurricane center and weather service social media posts will be limited to only alerts to protect lives and property.

"Weather services offices will continue to operate on their regular schedule, either 16 hours /7 days or 24 hours/ 7 days a week as needed," Teefey said.

NWS observations, forecasts and warnings, as well as decision support services also will continue uninterrupted, she said, as well as critical functions such as emergency maintenance or repair of operational systems.

"NWS provides the nation with continuous climate, water, space weather, weather observations, forecasts and warnings, and Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) during hazardous conditions," the U.S. Department of Commerce said in its 2023 appropriations lapse contingency plan. "This work is critical and necessary to protect life and property in the country and parts of the world through international agreements. Offices operate on a 24 hour/7 days a week or 16 hour/7 days a week schedule to provide forecasts, warnings, data, critical expertise, and IDSS."

However, NWS and NHC forecasters and support staff will be working without pay for the duration, to be paid in full after the shutdown ends, which may become more of a problem the longer the shutdown continues.

What services will continue at NOAA if the government shutdown happens?

Weather, water, and climate observing, prediction, forecast, warning and support, and critical functions such as repair of operational systems will continue. The Department of Commerce also will maintain, among other non-weather functions:

  • Law enforcement activities for the protection of marine fisheries.

  • Fisheries management activities including quota monitoring, observer activities and regulatory actions to prevent overfishing.

  • Water level data for ships entering U.S. ports, critical nautical chart updates and accurate position information.

  • Maintenance, continuity and protection of certain research property and critical data records

What services will stop at NOAA if the government shutdown happens?

"Routine equipment maintenance, model upgrades, new product development, and other longer-term improvements to service delivery will be delayed" at the NWS, Teefey said.

Otherwise, mostly non-essential research. According to the Department of Commerce, when the last shutdown happened in 2018-2019 most research activities at NOAA were stopped, with exceptions for real-time regular models on research computers used for hurricane and FAA flight planning. That included projects from Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations.

Functions that would be excepted from the shutdown, according to the 2021 plan, include (among other things):

  • Supporting activities with other agencies to protect against "significant and imminent threats to human life and property."

  • Research that provides "key environmental information needed for operational climate and weather products to the NWS in support of predictions, lead time and accuracy of severe weather warnings, tsunami detection, and forecasting to protect against significant and imminent threats to human life and property."

  • Critical support for products needed to determine air quality, weather, and climate variability, acidification, hydrothermal vent systems, fisheries oceanography, and long-term climate monitoring in collaboration with multiple academic partnerships and international coalitions and research institutions worldwide.

  • Protecting and maintaining NOAA's aircraft and facilities.

  • Vessel and aircraft operations in support of other excepted functions such as Right Whale Surveys.

According to the 2023 contingency plan, 16 research vessels that may be at sea when a potential shutdown occurs would be instructed to return to the nearest port to coordinate the shutdown of shoreside technical and administrative support operations, but ships and aircraft would be available for forecast support.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: National Hurricane Center will keep going during government shutdown