Phill Casaus: We'll see if Lujan Grisham can take a page from 'West Wing'

Jun. 5—Ask older, politically employed Democrats who their role model is, and they'll often come back with Roosevelt and the Kennedys. The younger ones always favor Obama, and those still saddled with student loan debt let the names Warren and Sanders escape their lips.

But really, if you think about it, their real icon is Aaron Sorkin, the brilliant writer of many things, but perhaps best known for The West Wing.

In that series, Sorkin managed to capture the soaring ideals of the D's — and occasionally, reveal their self-righteous smugness and inability to understand, let alone capture, the moment. One of my favorite episodes came in the third season. It was entitled "Manchester Part I," and its crescendo comes when President Jed Bartlet, under fire from all sides, a long shot for reelection, gathers his staff for a pep talk as a friendly rally brews outside the window.

"There's a new book, and we're gonna write it," Bartlet tells his troops. "You can win if you run a smart, disciplined campaign. If you studiously say nothing — nothing that causes you trouble, nothing that's a gaffe, nothing that shows you might think the wrong thing, nothing that shows you think. But it just isn't worthy of us, is it Toby?"

Toby Ziegler, Bartlet's adviser and foil, simply replies: "No, sir."

I was thinking about that exchange as Tuesday, primary election day, approaches. Once the Republicans nominate a challenger to Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham — the signs, polls and money point to former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti — I'd be surprised if Governor Go doesn't have the same kind of talk with her campaign staff.

Unlike the prologue of "Machester Part 1," this election would seem Lujan Grisham's to lose. She's got the incumbency, far more money ... everything you'd need to win. And yet, her last year has been spent mostly in a defensive posture, fending off simmering bitterness over COVID-19 decisions and some inexplicable political moves: Veto the Junior Bill and prompt a special legislative session? Why? That smacked of, goodness help us, Susana Martinez. Certainly not Aaron Sorkin.

Since '21, Lujan Grisham has been the basketball team that holds a 10-point cushion with three minutes to go. Rather than attack the hoop, she's tried to run out the clock, studiously saying nothing. That's what leads to spectacular upsets.

The worst thing she and Democrats can do now is dismiss Ronchetti as a know-nothing; a hairdo on a green screen. OK, so his career has been built on describing an upper-air disturbance over the Four Corners region, but I know a lot of sitting politicians in both parties with more impressive paper résumés who struggle to define the word disturbance, let alone identify where the Four Corners are. Ronchetti is smart enough.

The reasons Republicans think Ronchetti has a puncher's chance against Lujan Grisham are simple: She's made tough, unpopular calls on COVID-19, a corrosive on her popularity, and the challenger's stronger-than-expected performance against Ben Ray Luján in the race for the U.S. Senate in 2020. If Ronchetti was such a lightweight, that race should've been a walkover. It wasn't.

Ronchetti is well-outfitted to play in this dyspeptic, angry era. He's going to bellow 'til he's hoarse about crime and the "elites" running the state, taking great care to point out Lujan Grisham's flaws and creating a few myths along the way. It'll play for a while, maybe a long while — until or unless the governor points out the real elites in New Mexico have far too much money to sully their hands by running for political office.

That's what PAC contributions are for. And both parties, both candidates, drink from that trough.

The real question for Lujan Grisham is going to be whether she can run — as Sorkin/Barlett outlined — a smart, disciplined campaign. Her performance against Steve Pearce four years ago was Richardsonian in its dominance. But from an issues standpoint, she was facing someone evidently more interested in becoming the mayor of Hobbs.

This is a totally different deal.

I'd be surprised if you'll see many debates between Ronchetti and Lujan Grisham this fall. Political handlers fear them. They're terrified of The Big Mistake that loses an election.

But whether it's in person, through job performance or via incessant commercials, Lujan Grisham has to draw Ronchetti into a substantive policy discussion and comparison. It's her strength: She knows the machinations of government inside, outside, upside down — and usually, can explain them. Her ability to communicate on TV is at least the equal of Ronchetti.

Come to think of it, New Mexico may never have had two more telegenic, articulate candidates.

Still, it all comes down to the person who has the ball. That's MLG. We'll see whether she can play with a lead, and in the words of Sorkin, write a new book.

Phill Casaus is editor of The New Mexican.