Picks to win, horses to avoid while wagering on Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
The two-day Breeders’ Cup World Championships will conclude Saturday at Keeneland.
Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races will start at 11:50 a.m. with the Filly & Mare Sprint and conclude with the $6 million Classic at 5:40 p.m.
TV coverage will be on USA Network (1-3:30 p.m.) and NBC (3:30-6 p.m.).
Breeders' Cup: 10 of the top horses to see at Keeneland this weekend
Here’s an analysis of each race:
Filly & Mare Sprint (11:50 a.m.)
The pick: Frank’s Rockette (#5) has been superb this year but will be facing tougher competition here. I think he gets it done.
Others to watch: Goodnight Olive (#8) has won five in a row, including a victory at Keeneland last October. Obligatory (#7) should be rolling down the stretch.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Filly & Mare Sprint
Long shot to like: Slammed (#1) enters off a Grade 2 victory in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes last month at Keeneland.
Standing against: Ce Ce (#4) won this race last year at Del Mar but hasn’t fared as well against Grade 1 competition in 2022.
Turf Sprint (12:29 p.m.)
The pick: Golden Pal (#8) is gunning for his third straight Breeders’ Cup victory and will get it over a Keeneland track where he’s undefeated in four starts.
Others to watch: Highfield Princess (#6) enters off three straight Group 1 victories against male competition in Europe. Casa Creed (#11) should be rolling down the stretch, but will it be too late? Campanelle (#4) won at Keeneland in April.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Turf Sprint
Long shot to like: Artemus Citylimits (#14) finished just 1 ½ lengths behind Golden Pal in the Grade 2 Woodford last month at Keeneland.
Standing against: Creative Force (#1) is from the dangerous Charlie Appleby barn but is 0 for 4 this year.
Dirt Mile (1:10 p.m.)
The pick: Gunite (#5) will be racing a little farther than he’s used to, but that speed should hold.
Others to watch: Cyberknife (#9) had been considered for the Classic but now gets his first-ever start at 1 mile. Cody’s Wish (#7) has never been worse than third in 10 career starts. Laurel River (#6) is 2 for 2 at the distance for trainer Bob Baffert.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Dirt Mile
Long shot to like: Pipeline (#3) was in the hunt against Cody Wish and Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga before fading to third.
Standing against: Senior Buscador (#10) is 2 for 2 at the one-mile distance but takes a big step up in class here.
Filly & Mare Turf (1:50 p.m.)
The pick: Nashwa (#3) is a worthy favorite after winning 4 of 6 starts in Europe this year.
Others to watch: In Italian (#11) has never been worse than third in eight career starts and likely will be the one they have to catch. Above the Curve (#4) finished a nose behind Nashwa last month at Longchamp. Tuesday (#5) could contend if she regains her form from earlier in the year.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Filly & Mare Turf
Long shot to like: Virginia Joy (#10) enters off a score in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl at Saratoga.
Standing against: Moira (#12) has four career victories but is 0 for 2 in graded stakes.
Sprint (2:30 p.m.)
The pick: Jackie’s Warrior (#9) looks like the lock of the day.
Others to watch: Kimari (#2) has been impressive in back-to-back Grade 2 victories but gets the ultimate test against Jackie’s Warrior. American Theorem (#4) should be passing a lot of horses late, but can he catch them all? Elite Power (#6) has won four straight for trainer Bill Mott.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Sprint
Long shot to like: Aloha West (#5) has been beaten by a neck and a nose in two career starts at Keeneland.
Standing against: C Z Rocket (#8) finished second behind Whitmore in this race in 2020 at Keeneland but is just 1 for 4 this year.
Mile (3:10 p.m.)
The pick: Kinross (#13) enters with four straight victories and has veteran jockey Frankie Dettori on board.
Others to watch: Smooth Like Strait (#5) was the runner-up in this race last year and has finished second in six of his past seven starts. Regal Glory (#8) is a mare who’s battled the boys before, finishing second to Casa Creed in the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. Modern Games (#4) is undefeated in two starts in North America.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Mile
Long shot to like: Ivar (#6) has back-to-back second-place finishes in a pair of Grade 1 races.
Standing against: Domestic Spending (#14) will be right in the mix if he returns to his 4-year-old form, but he hasn’t raced since August of last year. Tough spot for a return.
Distaff (3:55 p.m.)
The pick: Society (#8) may not have the class of some of the others here, but she has the early speed to steal it.
Others to watch: Malathaat (#1) is 3 for 3 at Keeneland and looks to improve on her third-place finish in last year’s Distaff. Nest (#6) has won three straight since finishing second to Mo Donegal in the Belmont.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Distaff
Long shot to like: Clairiere (#4) probably doesn’t deserve “long shot” status but must bounce back after a fifth-place finish in her last start.
Standing against: Search Results (#7) seems a step behind the best in here.
Turf (4:40 p.m.)
The pick: War Like Goddess (#2) is 2 for 2 at Keeneland and enters off a Grade 1 score last month.
Others to watch: Rebel’s Romance (#5) is undefeated in four career starts on turf and enters off a pair of Group 1 victories in Germany. Bye Bye Melvin (#1) finished second – 2 ¾ lengths behind War Like Goddess – in his last start. Stone Age (#3) hasn’t been good lately but could contend if he regains his spring form.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Turf
Long shot to like: Master Piece (#8) has a superb late kick that should have him in the mix down the stretch.
Standing against: Nations Pride (#7) may well be the one to beat here, but he’ll have to make a leap in the speed figures to contend.
Classic (5:40 p.m.)
The pick: Nobody likes to pick the chalk, but how do you go against Flightline (#4) here?
Others to watch: Life Is Good (#2) bounced back from a disappointing showing in the Dubai World Cup to win three straight graded stakes. Can he stay with Flightline early? Epicenter (#6) is the best 3-year-old in the country and now gets his first shot against older horses.
Breeders' Cup: Post positions, odds, entries for Classic
Long shot to like: Hot Rod Charlie (#5) may not win but rarely disappoints.
Standing against: Taiba (#1) was impressive in winning the Pennsylvania Derby but takes a huge step up in class here.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Picks to win, horses to avoid while betting on Saturday's Breeders' Cup
