Plan to travel over the holidays? Why airfares for Newark, JFK and LaGuardia are rising

Thinking about flying during the Thanksgiving or Christmas holidays? Book now — airfare for flights out of the region's three major airports is getting more expensive.

Ticket prices for domestic flights have increased an average of 22% at Newark, LaGuardia and JFK airports when comparing the last eight quarters of data compiled by the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

William McGee, the senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, said the driving factors are increased travel by those making up for lost time after the pandemic and the lack of competition among airlines.

"If you have those conditions where you have demand and on the supply end flights are as full as they could possibly get, those conditions are perfect for you to raise fares, because you know that you can," McGee said.

Here's how ticket prices at the region's airports have increased in the last four quarters compared to the year before, using the most recently available federal data, with Q1 of 2023.

• Newark (EWR): The average domestic airline ticket price of the last four quarters was $417.56, up from an average of $326.67 the four quarters before, a 28% jump.

• JFK: The average domestic airline ticket price of the last four quarters was $431.90, up from an average of $348.18 the four quarters before, a 24% jump.

• LaGuardia (LGA): The average domestic airline ticket price of the last four quarters was $328.89, up from an average of $284.76 the four quarters before, a 16% jump.

Record volume at Newark, JFK and LaGuardia airports

Will there be a decrease soon?

The increases will "continue for as long as they [the airlines] can allow it to continue," McGee said. "It is tied to demand, so if people stop flying they'll be forced to lower fares."

However, there's no sign of that in the New York metropolitan area, as the region's three airports are seeing record volume.

So far this year through July, 82 million passengers have used Newark, JFK and LaGuardia airports, a 2% increase compared with the same time period in 2019, according to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. The Fourth of July holiday this year gave the airports a boost by serving a record-high number of passengers even as airports around the country saw a decrease of 2.4% nationwide, according to the Transportation Security Administration.

The increase in ticket prices is not unique to the New York metropolitan area.

Airfare prices are up nationally as well

Airfare costs increased on average 16% in the first quarter of 2023 across the country, compared with the same period in 2022, according to an analysis conducted by SmartAsset, with the highest percentage rate increase of 31% at Miami International Airport. JFK ranked sixth, Newark Liberty ranked eighth and LaGuardia ranked 12th, according to that report, using data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Hannah Walden, a spokeswoman for the Airlines for America lobbying and association group, noted that ticket prices after being adjusted for inflation are still lower than they were pre-pandemic.

"From the first quarter of 2019 [pre-pandemic] to the first quarter of 2023, New York [EWR/JFK/LGA] domestic airfares were up 4.4% over this four-year period, rising less than both the nationwide average of 10.8% and the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which was up 18.9%," Walden said.

Other contributing factors that can drive up costs include labor, fuel, aircraft ownership, maintenance and airport fees, and demand. Plus, the number of flights in the region is limited due to air traffic control staffing challenges, with a key New York City-area facility half-staffed, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

Questions seeking comment from American, Delta, Southwest and United were declined or not returned.

Why are plane tickets so expensive?

McGee said expensive airline tickets have been a problem for a long time, particularly in markets where there isn't much competition, but problems have festered nationwide since the industry was deregulated in 1978. Acquisitions and mergers have consolidated the airlines to such a degree that four companies — American, Delta, Southwest and United — control 80% of the market.

As a result of the limited competition, the companies have pocketed profits and largely failed to invest in the customer experience and product, McGee said.

Story continues after chart.

This, he said, is among the contributing reasons for the Southwest meltdown in January, when an outdated technology system led to more than 10,000 canceled flights around the holiday season, and why there is lackluster customer support when it comes to refunds when travel is disrupted.

"The first airline ticket was sold in 1914, and we have not had so few airlines in this country since the 1910s. We’re in a place now we’ve never been in before," McGee said. "The only competition we have in the airline industry comes from the low-cost carriers."

JetBlue seeks merger to compete with major US airlines

And now, Spirit could get swallowed up by JetBlue, which offered to buy the nation's biggest "ultra-low-cost carrier" for $3.8 billion in a merger that was announced last summer.

But the U.S. Department of Justice sued to block the deal earlier this year, an action McGee said is one of several signs that the Biden administration is trying to push back on airline consolidation.

After the Justice Department's decision to sue, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg weighed in, saying, "It is so important to make sure that passengers have choices, that they have access to low fares, that they have access to competition, and yet we’ve seen less and less and less of that competition over the years."

JetBlue's CEO Robin Hayes told USA Today that he hoped creating a fifth major airline would be the "best antidote" and would better position the company to compete with the likes of the Big Four.

"We've got a lot of conviction that there is a massive net consumer benefit in this transaction," Hayes said in March. "If for some reason it is blocked … consumers will lose, because the ability for JetBlue to make such a profound difference is lost."

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Flight tickets at Newark, JFK and LaGuardia rising since COVID