Planet Normal: To Putin and his inner circle, Ukraine is an existential war of defence
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Owen Matthews joins Liam Halligan on this week’s Planet Normal podcast, which you can listen to using the audio player above, to explore how the interplay of language, history and psychology shape Russian attitudes to the war in Ukraine. The pair also discuss Vladimir Putin’s apparent transformation from an astute master of diplomacy to a reckless apostle of Russian revanchism.
“This is all ancient history now, but people forget how well he [Putin] was doing with his diplomacy… it was really stupid, he was doing so well.”
“Before the horrors of Bucha emerged, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was actually quite prepared to accept something less than full NATO membership. He was prepared to talk about the status of Crimea and the rebel republics of the Donbas, and there was definitely room for compromise.”
Neo-imperialist thinking may have increasingly influenced Putin in recent years – with it being citing it as an ideological underpinning of the war – but, Matthews argues, it is not the critical factor:
“The paranoia and the idea that this is a defensive war against American encroachment on the space of Russia and of Russia itself is much more important than the imperialist fig leaf, which is a sort of ideological dressing. The war to the Russian elite, and particularly to Putin and his inner circle, is an existential war of defence against what they see as an encroaching threat.”
“One of the most import quotes about the war came from a guy called Viktor Zolotov, who is the head of the Russian National Guard and a very powerful member of Putin’s inner circle. A couple of years ago, Zolotov said ‘Ukraine is not important. Ukraine just happens to be where Russia’s border with America lies.’ ”
Despite Western sanctions, Matthews does not see the Kremlin threatened by the desperation that incubated the 1917 revolution or the collapse of communism.
“Back in August 1991, by coincidence, I showed up in Leningrad the day before the hardline coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. And, you know, those last days and months of the Soviet Union were absolutely miserable. There was no food in the shops. It was really clear that the state was collapsing.”
“None of that describes the Russia of today.”
“Hipsters are still in their heads. The cafés, the theatres and the nightclubs are completely full. Everyone is doing very their utmost to ignore the war, and people don’t really discuss it.”
On the end of the conflict:
“I don’t actually see negotiation as a realistic possibility. I think that the more likely outcome is some sort of formally frozen conflict. In other words, more like Cyprus or, more pertinently, like Korea, where you just have a line of control and the two sides somehow find a sort of major modus vivendi, but there’s no formal peace deal because it would involve fatal concessions, which neither side’s leadership would survive.”
Overreach: The Inside Story of Putin’s War Against Ukraine by Owen Matthews is out now in paperback.
Listen to Planet Normal, a weekly Telegraph podcast featuring news and views from beyond the bubble, using the audio player above or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your preferred podcast app.
