Planning your February break? Check out Rochester's early weather forecast for next week

Most Rochester-area schools go on break the week of Feb. 19, but what weather can students and parents expect?

Sometimes called Presidents Day break or midwinter recess, the week is a welcome break from the winter doldrums. But what will the weather be for February break in Rochester?

Rochester has had a mild winter so far, with warm temperatures and far less snow than a typical year. The trend is likely to continue into next week.

Weather in Rochester NY: February break forecast

The AccuWeather forecast calls for highs ranging from the lower 40s on Monday, Feb. 19 to the mid 30s, with no high temperature below freezing expected that week. The forecast also calls for snow showers the morning of Feb. 20.

The National Weather Service in Buffalo forecast models call for a slightly cooler outlook, with temperatures below normal and, as a result, the chance for a spot of lake effect snow. The normal high for Feb. 19 is 36 degrees, with the same measure warming to 37 degrees by the end of the week.

There’s no major precipitation systems expected, but cold temperatures and proper wind directions could bring the bands of lake effect snow, said David Thomas, Weather Service meteorologist. A northwest flow creates the most likely conditions for lake effect in Rochester.

Forecast reliability improves as you get closer to the date, so what exactly the weather the week of February break will look like could still change.

According to NOAA, a 10-day forecast, or longer, is only right about 50% of the time. The accuracy rises to 80% for a seven-day forecast and climbs even higher, to 90%, with a five-day forecast.

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— Steve Howe covers weather, climate and lake issues for the Democrat and Chronicle and has already been out on his bike this year. Share with him at showe@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Rochester NY Weather: February break forecast. Will it snow?