Is a polar vortex heading to Indiana in January? NWS says it is unlikely.

If you have seen an image circulating on Facebook showing an incoming polar vortex expected at the end of January and are worried about severe winter weather, you don't have to worry too much just yet because the National Weather Service (NWS) says that image is not exactly accurate.

While NWS confirmed the image itself is real and an output from the Climate Forecast System (CFS), it is important to keep in mind that meteorologists look at several different models, not just one, to best estimate what could happen with the weather.

Meteorologist Joseph Nield at NWS Indianapolis shared an old saying that commonly gets applied to weather models — 'all models are wrong, but some are useful.'

"Basically, no model is ever completely accurate, but trained professionals using scientific knowledge and pattern recognition can take the output of several models and their trends and establish a reasonable range of outcomes that may occur," Nield said.

Making weather predictions

After looking at a dozen different runs of the CFS model for 7 a.m. on Jan. 24, 2024, Nield shared that the lowest temperature ranged anywhere from -18 to 48 degrees, a 64 degree difference between the models.

This is why meteorologists look at multiple models and take all outcomes into consideration in order to make educated predictions. Even a seven day forecast can end up being inaccurate, so a prediction for a month from now is certainly prone to change.

The image shared on Facebook only shows one possible weather outcome and in this case, the most severe one.

This is not the first time an image like this has circulated online.

"We see this happen frequently on social media platforms, particularly during the winter - one model run shows extreme snowfall amounts or extreme temperatures, images are shared, and suddenly it spreads like wildfire," Nield said.

It is important to check the weather frequently, especially during the winter months, and make sure you are getting your information from official sources, like NWS.

January outlook for Indiana weather

Now, are subzero temperatures possible in Indiana during January? Of course. Historically speaking, January is the month of the year where sub-zero temperatures are most likely to occur in Indianapolis.

Are we likely to see them this year? Nield said not very.

Based on large scale circulations driven by a strong El Nino pattern in the Pacific, currently we can expect a warmer and drier winter than usual, he said.

"That does not mean that conditions will not fluctuate from time to time, or that there is no chance for snow or cold conditions this winter — just that on average, the season is expected to end up warmer and drier," Nield said.

Katie Wiseman is a trending and breaking news intern at IndyStar. Contact her at klwiseman@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter @itskatiewiseman.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Is a polar vortex coming in January? NWS says it is unlikely.