Polish elections bode well for Ukraine and EU

Poland is facing changes, and not only Poland. Recent election results create new opportunities for Ukraine, Europe, and Ukraine in Europe.

The last few weeks were not very optimistic. We are approaching winter, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not bringing radical changes on the frontline, and the threat of a new war in Palestine may weaken the West's attention to Ukraine.

We desperately need good news. There is such news. However, I am afraid we may not notice it behind the daily anxious routine. It is the opposition's victory in the Polish parliamentary elections on October 15. The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) again showed the best result, garnering 35% of the vote, but the three opposition parties combined for a majority of 54%. They can form their government. This means that PiS's eight-year rule is over.

Poland is facing changes, and not only Poland. The election results create new opportunities for Ukraine, Europe, and Ukraine in Europe.

I was able to observe the election campaign in Poland directly. This year, my Global History of Ukraine was translated into several languages, including Polish. So, in September, I had presentations in several Polish cities.

In the evenings, in my hotel room after another presentation, I watched political shows on TVP info. And I felt a Déjà vu effect. It was like watching Russian programs about Ukraine, the only difference being that the role of Ukraine, in this case, is played by the opposition and Ukraine itself. TVP info commentators were "drowning" the Polish opposition, and at the same time Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after his speech at the UN criticizing the Polish government. The whole world, they claimed, condemned Zelenskyy, and stood up for Poland.

Unsuccessful move

I follow the world media. I can confidently say that most Western experts sided with Zelenskyy and Ukraine, not the Polish authorities. Of course, there is no such thing as stupidity or nastiness that cannot be done during elections. But even stupidity must have decent limits. In the case of TVP info, we are dealing with a lie – or, as they often say, a post-truth – like the communication of Orban, Putin, and Trump.

One of TVP info's primary rivals is Gazeta Wyborcza. A week before the election, the publication recalled one of the favorite jokes of its founder, Adam Michnik. The joke is about Czechoslovakia after the Soviet invasion in 1968: "In the morning, in the center of occupied Prague, a drunkard with a hangover is vomiting into a fountain. A decently dressed gentleman approaches him and says politely: "Dear sir, although I don't know you at all, I completely agree with you!"

For eight years in power, Law and Justice have created precisely this nauseating situation for most Poles. It is a party of populists, and like every populist government, it appeals to the lowest human instincts – envy, fear, irresponsibility, and an unwillingness to use one's own mind.

An example of such an appeal was an election ploy that PiS copied from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban: to hold a national referendum simultaneously with the elections and to formulate the questions in this referendum in such a way that the answers to them would increase the chances of the government's victory. In the case of Poland, the questions were: should we sell state-owned enterprises, raise the retirement age, accept immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, and keep the wall on the border with Belarus? It is hard to imagine what level of intelligence ordinary Poles would have to have to fall for this primitive ruse. Fortunately, the majority reacted normally and ignored the referendum. Therefore, its results have no legal force, no matter how expected and favorable they may have been for the authorities,

Instead, Poles showed a record high level of participation in the elections – 74%. It is even higher than the turnout in the fateful elections of June 1989 (62.7%). Back then, the anti-communist Solidarity Party defeated the communist government and launched a chain of change, the last link being the proclamation of Ukrainian independence in December 1991. Similarly, this election could be historic: populism, which replaced communism in the early 2010s, was defeated in one of the key countries of the European Union.

Without hope for the best

Young people contributed significantly to the defeat of the ruling party. In fact, among this age group, PiS received the fewest votes. There were fears that they would mostly vote for the Confederation, a party of young leaders that criticizes both the government and the opposition. The Confederation attracted young voters with its libertarian rhetoric, primarily its promise to cut taxes. On the other hand, this party advocates Poland's withdrawal from the European Union, a sharp reduction in labor emigration, and cutting aid to Ukraine.

In a broader context, its success or failure should be a measure of the strength of a new and dangerous trend that is sweeping the Western world and is embodied by Trump and Alternative for Germany. It is based on the fear of young people of an uncertain future.

Until recently, every young generation in the West believed they would live better than their parents. Now, as a result of rising social inequality, global warming, the covid epidemic, and the war in Ukraine, this belief is evaporating. The future no longer offers hope for the better. On the contrary, it is terrifying. Hence, there is a desire to return to the past, when things were better, to fence off the outside world and its challenges with a high wall.

The Confederation was most popular among young Poles in smaller towns, villages, and traditionally poorer eastern regions. There, local youth could not compete with the more successful youth of Warsaw and large cities. The same applies to the attitude toward the current Ukrainian emigration. Ukrainians are educated, hardworking, and willing to take on jobs for lower wages.

Fortunately, the fears were not justified. The Confederation barely passed the 5% threshold to get into parliament, and among the new parliamentary parties, it came in fifth place with 7%.

Polish youth turned out to be better than people thought. Some young Poles were tired of the struggle between two political dinosaurs, PiS and the opposition Civic Platform, so they voted for the Third Way party, which gained twice as much (14%) as the Confederation. A smaller part of them voted for the Left Party, which garnered only 9%. This is because of its "masculine" character: no women are in the party's leadership.

Instead, Platform had the most women on the top of the electoral list. Young Poles, especially young women, are very sensitive to gender equality and women's rights. PiS was dealing with problems "below the belt," which young people did not like.

But the main thing is that young people unequivocally support Poland's membership in the European Union. For them, the EU is a chance for Poland to be a normal and modern liberal democratic state.

A lesson for Ukraine

We, Ukrainians, want to have the same chance. The victory of the Polish opposition strengthens this chance. PiS was characterized by very strong anti-Union rhetoric. The main thrust of its criticism was directed against Germany: Berlin was presented as Poland's second biggest enemy after Moscow. One of the main lines of the pre-election attack on opposition leader Donald Tusk was to claim that he was not really a Pole, but a German, and therefore cared more about German interests than Polish ones. This ricocheted to Ukraine. They say that Ukrainians are looking for rapprochement with Berlin behind Poland's back, and this once again shows their treacherous and ungrateful nature.

The Polish government has been working to divide Europe. In times of war, Ukraine needs a stable and reliable Kyiv-Warsaw-Berlin axis. Instead, PiS tried to break this axis in the western segment and objectively weaken it in the eastern segment with its actions and statements. The victory of the Polish opposition creates chances for strengthening this axis on both sides. It can become the lever that will shift the center of gravity of the European Union from the West to the East. And this will objectively strengthen the role of Ukraine.

The results of the Polish elections lift the curtain on Ukraine's future. It is no secret that in many national traits, Ukrainians are closer to Poles than Russians. Before the war, when Ukrainians were asked which country's experience they would like to emulate, Poland was often the first choice. Now, during the war, the solidarity of Ukrainians resembles the solidarity of Poles in 1989. As then, so now, both were united by hatred of the common enemy.

However, the example of modern Poland can serve as a warning for Ukraine. Both PiS and the Civic Coalition are two children of Solidarity. But as soon as the enemy, the common enemy, disappeared, yesterday's allies turned into today's enemies. By analogy, we can say that hopes that Ukrainians will maintain their current level of solidarity after Putin's disappearance are in vain. After all, normal politics always means struggle and competition. There is no struggle and competition in North Korea or Putin's Russia. But these examples are unlikely to be attractive to Ukraine.

Another Polish lesson for Ukraine is that modern politics carries a new political agenda. The status of women and sexual minorities will play an increasingly important role in it. Whether we like it or not, young people are very sensitive to these things.

The main lesson is that every democracy can deteriorate and evolve toward xenophobia and populism. This does not mean, however, that this movement is irreversible. The recent elections in Poland show that it can be stopped. The medicine populists offer to cure the shortcomings of democracy is worse than the disease itself.

When Poles I know tell me about their problems and warn me about what may be in store for us in the future after we win the war and join the European Union, I have a simple answer: "We, Ukrainians, want to have your problems!" We must solve them not with Russians, but Poles, Germans, and other European nations.

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine