Poll of Arizona Latino voters spells trouble for Republicans – and Democrats

A whopping 80% of Arizona Latinos support keeping abortion legal, regardless of their personal beliefs.

Yet 42% of Latinos said nobody had contacted them about this year’s midterm election.

That’s bad news for Republicans jubilant over the end of Roe v. Wade, which gave women the right to abortion nationwide.

But it’s also bad news for Democrats, who should be ashamed of themselves for largely ignoring this important voting bloc.

It’s a perennial vicious cycle where both parties – Democrat and Republican – largely ignore Latinos until the last few weeks of an election.

This year is no different.

Latinos aren't apathetic. They're unconvinced

That’s the upshot of a survey commissioned by UnidosUS and Mi Familia Vota, two nationally prominent Hispanic groups.

“We’re not apathetic,” Elizabeth Salazar, the Arizona senior policy strategist for UnidosUS said on Thursday during a media call. “We are unconvinced ... We hope this is a wake up for both parties.”

Will it be a wake-up call? I doubt it. Not in a significant way.

Winning ticket? Both sides look to Latino voters to power them to victory

Sure. The Arizona Republican Party and some GOP candidates, including Kari Lake and Blake Masters, are touting Latino support.

How big is that support? No clue.

How much money are statewide candidates spending on getting the Latino vote? No clue, again.

Democrats aren’t doing that great, either, judging by the survey results, though Latinos still believe Democrats share more of their values and concerns.

When asked if they had been contacted in the past 12 months by phone, email ads, text, emails or in person, 32% said they had heard from Democrats and 19% said they had heard from Republicans.

But a larger number – 42% – said nobody had reached out to them.

Abortion, white supremacy may be dealbreakers

The poll surveyed 2,540 registered voters nationally from July 20 to Aug. 1. In Arizona, pollsters surveyed 300 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.

That’s the most comprehensive look at Latinos in Arizona, pollsters explained.

Top of mind among Latinos is inflation and the cost of living, the survey showed. To them, that means making ends meet.

Second and third most important, not surprisingly, are jobs and the economy – followed by abortion.

“Abortion has become more salient,” said Gary Segura, president and co-founder of BSP Research, the firm that conducted the poll, with 80% of Latino voters saying the procedure should be legal. That sentiment is high between men and women, with 83% and 78% agreeing it’s wrong to make abortion illegal and take that choice away.

This is important because many Latinos are Catholic and pro-life – something Republicans sought to capitalize on when courting them. That became problematic with the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Another deal breaker?

Latinos won’t vote for candidates backed by white supremacists or who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, the survey shows.

Arizona’s statewide GOP slate – Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Mark Finchem and Abe Hamadeh – are tied to former president Trump, repeating his lies of a stolen election, espousing conspiracies and expressing white supremacy tendencies.

Latinos are a key voting bloc. Why overlook them?

Will Latinos automatically vote for Democrats, then? Not necessarily.

Most of those surveyed did say the Democratic Party generally shares their values and their priorities.

But, like any other voters, the party and candidates must spend significant money and time reaching out to them to earn their vote. Why they don’t do it is mind-blowing.

Some candidates obviously do talk with and about Latinos such as Democrat Adrian Fontes and Republican Juan Ciscomani.

But the fact that 42% hadn't heard from anybody in any form is astonishing. Hopefully, that has changed a bit since the poll was taken but demonstratively that means yet again Latinos are an afterthought.

Hispanics make up a third of the state’s 7.1 million population, and this year an estimated 644,600 of them are estimated will cast a ballot in the Nov 8. election.

“We know Latinos can be a force,” said Carolina Rodriguez-Greer, the Arizona director of Mi Familia Vota. “Many aren’t aligning with any particular party.”

Translation: Latinos are up for grabs – if the parties and candidates are willing to throw them more than just crumbs and can convince them to actually vote.

Elvia Díaz is the editorial page editor for The Republic and azcentral. Reach her at 602-444-8606 or elvia.diaz@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter, @elviadiaz1. 

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Latino voters are up for grabs, new poll shows