Poll finds 'dead heat' in Democratic primary for Rhode Island governor

PROVIDENCE — The Democratic contest for governor is "wide open," with the two best-known candidates, incumbent Gov. Dan McKee and two-term Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, in "a statistical dead heat," according to a poll released Tuesday by WPRI.

The poll found that if the Sept. 13 Democratic primary were held today, McKee would get 25% of the likely vote and Gorbea 23%. Former Secretary of State Matt Brown would get 7%, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes would get 6% and health care advocate Luis Daniel Muñoz would get 2%.

The biggest bloc of potential primary voters, 37%, are undecided, according to the first independent poll of the 2022 Rhode Island political season.

The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted by veteran pollster Joseph Fleming from May 9 to 12 for WPRI and Roger Williams University. The margin for error is plus or minus 4.9%.

Fleming was in the field a week before Foulkes – who has so far amassed the biggest campaign war chest among the candidates –began her TV advertising campaign.

Perhaps the most concerning finding for Democrat McKee, who ascended to the office when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo left for Washington in March 2021: his job approval numbers are lower than President Joe Biden's.

Likely Democratic primary voters were almost evenly split on whether McKee has been doing a good job: 44.5% rated his job performance as "good to excellent" while 43.8% picked "fair to poor." The rest were undecided.

Will you get a tax break?: RI budget forecast keeps improving

By way of comparison, Biden's job approval was 59.8% among likely Democratic voters in Rhode Island.

McKee outpolled Gorbea among male voters and those 60 and older, while Gorbea outpolled him among women and voters 18 to 39 years old.

"While he doesn’t put much stock in polls," McKee's campaign spokesman Brexton Isaacs said, "today’s numbers are a clear sign that Rhode Islanders recognize that Governor McKee is fighting to raise Rhode Islanders' incomes, support small businesses, and strengthen education."

"He looks forward to engaging directly with voters over the coming months while continuing to deliver strong, steady leadership for the people of Rhode Island."

Gorbea's campaign manager Dana Walton described the poll results as an affirmation that "Democrats know she’s been an effective secretary of state and they like her."

Conversely, she said: the poll indicates "McKee is unpopular and in a far weaker position than a sitting governor should be. Rhode Islanders want to fix the housing crisis, strengthen public education and tackle climate change."

From Foulkes' spokeswoman Audrey Lucas came this response to the poll: “With 37% of respondents undecided, the takeaway from this poll is clear: Democratic primary voters are looking for an alternative to Governor McKee and Secretary Gorbea.

"We're confident that voters will support Helena once they hear her message and vision for Rhode Island."

And from Munoz came thsi statement: "The Muñoz campaign feels more confident than ever after seeing the results of this poll.

"Dr. Muñoz is within the margin of error of a candidate (Foulkes) who has already racked up over $1,000,000 in campaign expenses, and a plurality of voters have yet to choose who they will vote for in this upcoming primary election: 37% of respondents reported they were undecided -- 10% more than reported support for either statewide office holder."

Inflation on voters' minds

The poll found that cost of living is the "single most important biggest issue" on voters' minds (36%) – especially among younger voters – followed by health care (18%), education (13%) and taxes (12%).

COVID has dropped from top-of-mind to an important issue among only 5% of the electorate.

Race for lieutenant governor

The telephone survey also attempted to gauge voter leanings in the three-way Democratic contest for lieutenant governor.

The big takeaway: 52% of likely Democratic voters are undecided.

But if the primary were held today, the poll found, incumbent Sabina Matos would have 21% of the vote, state Rep. Deborah Ruggiero 13%, and first-term Sen. Cynthia Mendes 12%.

Congressional District 2 race

Fleming also polled 250 likely Democratic voters in the 2nd Congressional District on the six-way race for the seat that U.S. Rep. James Langevin is leaving.

The only candidate in the mix who broke double digits was state Treasurer Seth Magaziner, with 32.8%. Next in line was former Rep. David Segal with 4.8%. At least half of those surveyed — 50.2% — said they were still undecided.

This part of the poll was assigned a 6.2% margin of error.

“Magaziner is in a strong position to win the Democratic nomination and take on Republican Allan Fung in November" said Magaziner spokeswoman Patricia Socarras.

More election 2022 updates: Foulkes hits the air with first TV ad

In an interview on Tuesday, Fleming said: "I look at this as sort of a starting line" for all three races, but especially the governor's race.

"The other candidates ... are just starting their media right now, and a lot can change between now and September.

"There's a lot of money that's going to be spent in the governor's race and I would think there could be changes, but at the beginning you have the governor and the secretary of state basically tied for the lead."

Speculating on why McKee's job approval numbers "are not that great," Fleming cited a number of the controversies.

"I just think he's had a lot of negative over the last few months," said Fleming, citing the McKee administration's award of $3,000 "retention bonuses" to unionized state workers, and reports that the FBI is investigating his administration's now-canceled contract with an education consulting company, the ILO Group.

Follow the money: Who are the leading fundraisers among RI governor candidates, and who is giving?

The $5.2 million contract – awarded to a brand new, politically connected company soon after McKee became governor – was for advice on reopening schools during the pandemic and help getting more cities and towns to set up the kind of "municipal education" offices McKee had founded as mayor of Cumberland.

A more seasoned company offered the same services for less.

Fleming did not do a job-approval survey on Gorbea, but he attributed her relatively high numbers to the fact that she is "obviously better known than the other candidates in the race, besides the governor. ... She's known. She's run statewide twice. She's won statewide twice, so she does have a base of support."

"But both these candidates are at 23%, 25%," he said. "They need to expand that base ... because 25% is probably not going to win this race."

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: RI governor race poll finds Dan McKee, Nellie Gorbea tied