Poll finds Democrat Jena Nelson leads GOP nominee Ryan Walters in Oklahoma superintendent race

A September poll indicates Democrat Jena Nelson surged ahead of Republican Ryan Walters in the race for state schools superintendent.

A survey of 402 likely voters by SoonerPoll.com, conducted Sept. 2-7 at News 9's request, found Nelson in the lead 48% to 43%. Almost 9% of respondents were undecided. Nelson's 5-point lead nearly matches the poll's 4.89% margin of error.

A Nelson victory in the Nov. 8 general election would make for a shocking upset in the race to succeed state schools Superintendent Joy Hofmeister. No Democrat has won statewide office since 2006 in Oklahoma, a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats almost 2-to-1.

"Oklahoma voters are stepping up to help support the mission to save public education," Nelson said in a news release Tuesday. "Across the state, we are seeing momentum behind our campaign. Our students, our teachers and our communities need and deserve a strong education system."

Hofmeister, the Democratic nominee for governor, also is attempting to break the 16-year shutout of Democrats from statewide office. She switched from the Republican party last year to make her gubernatorial run as a Democrat.

Nelson teaches sixth-grade English at Classen School of Advanced Studies Middle School in Oklahoma City. She was the 2020 Oklahoma Teacher of the Year.

Walters, a high school history teacher and education secretary on Stitt's Cabinet, emerged as a polarizing figure in Oklahoma politics this year. His campaign heavily emphasizes rejecting "woke ideology" and boosting school choice options outside of traditional public schools.

"The Walters campaign is focused on getting its message out and connecting with voters," Matt Langston, a spokesman for Walters' campaign, wrote in a Tuesday statement. "The only poll that matters is Election Day in November."

The GOP nominee was a vocal supporter of expanding private-school vouchers, regulating school bathrooms by birth sex, rejecting federal education funds, and penalizing teachers and school districts found in violation of House Bill 1775, a law that prohibits certain race and gender concepts from K-12 schools.

Walters defeated Shawnee Public Schools Superintendent April Grace in the Republican runoff primary 53% to 47% on Aug. 23.

"My opponent ran a great race, and we have had a tremendous amount of folks coming over and supporting our campaign," Walters said after the runoff. "Our campaign is about common sense. Oklahomans want a good education system in their state. They want a focus on academics, not indoctrination."

SoonerPoll.com suggests Walters doesn't have universal support from the GOP. The September survey found 19.6% of Republicans support Nelson along with more than 90% of Democrats.

Seventy percent of surveyed Republicans said they would back Walters, according to the poll.

Ryan Walters held hefty lead over Jena Nelson in campaign donations before runoff

Nelson, who had no primary election opponent, said her campaign has gained steam since Walters won the GOP nomination. She told The Oklahoman since Aug. 23 she received "more donations, more people volunteering, more people reaching out and just saying we have really got to focus on the truth and the power of public education."

Nelson had more than 90% support among likely voters who said education is their No. 1 issue in the November election, Soonerpoll.com reported.

The poll projected Nelson ahead among likely voters under the age of 54, while Walters held a small lead of 45.3% to 44.6% among the 55-64 age group. The Republican nominee had a 10-point lead with voters over the age of 65, according to the survey.

"Walters, whose party represents more than 57 percent of the state's overall electorate, is struggling to win over voters who are more likely to have children in secondary school," SoonerPoll.com founder Bill Shapard wrote.

Walters still leads in name recognition and fundraising, which could "potentially change this race in the weeks to come," Shapard said.

Nelson raised $75,500 before the runoff, far less than the $451,000 Walters collected while engaged in a competitive primary, pre-runoff campaign finance reports show. The candidates won't have to submit their next finance reports until late October.

SoonerPoll.com indicated Nelson has support even in rural areas. More survey respondents in Congressional Districts 3 and 4, covering west and southwest Oklahoma, said they preferred her over Walters, as did Oklahoma City metro area voters.

Walters had the edge in Congressional Districts 1 and 2, representing the Tulsa metro area and eastern Oklahoma.

No Democrat has won statewide election in Oklahoma in 16 years

The last Democrats to win a statewide race were elected in 2006, including then-Gov. Brad Henry, state schools Superintendent Sandy Garrett, Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins.

Previous polls struggled to predict outcomes of the 2022 superintendent race.

Surveys from SoonerPoll.com, News 9 and Amber Integrated reported Peggs Public Schools Superintendent John Cox led the Republican field in the June 28 primary while Grace and Walters trailed. Each poll reported a majority of surveyed voters were undecided in the weeks and months leading up to the primary.

Walters ultimately led the June primary with 41% of the vote. Grace advanced to the runoff with 31%. Cox and a fourth Republican, William Crozier, were eliminated from contention with 24% and 4%, respectively.

Runoff polls in mid-August indicated Grace trailed Walters by double-digit points. She closed that gap considerably on election day but still lost by six points on Aug. 23.

Reporter Nuria Martinez-Keel covers K-12 and higher education throughout the state of Oklahoma. Have a story idea for Nuria? She can be reached at nmartinez-keel@oklahoman.com or on Twitter at @NuriaMKeel. Support Nuria’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Poll finds Democrat Jena Nelson leads Oklahoma superintendent race