Poll: Oz gains ground on Fetterman, Shapiro up big on Mastriano

Sep. 29—Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz has gained substantial ground on Democratic candidate John Fetterman among Pennsylvania voters in the last month, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll released Wednesday.

In the governor's race, the poll shows state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee, widening his lead over state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-33, Franklin, the Republican nominee.

Fetterman, the state's lieutenant governor, led Oz, a celebrity surgeon, by 42% to 37% in the new poll, compared to a 43% to 30% lead in the August F&M poll. Libertarian Erik Gerhardt was at 2% while Green Party candidate Richard L. Weiss and Keystone Party candidate Daniel Wassmer registered no support.

When voters leaning toward a candidate are factored in, the race tightens even further — Fetterman, 45%, Oz, 42%.

Shapiro led Mastriano by 47% to 30% in the new poll, even better than the attorney general's 44% to 33% lead in August. With leaning voters counted, Shapiro leads 51% to 37%. Libertarian Jonathan Matthew Hackenburg was at 1% with Green Party candidate Christina "PK" DiGiulio and Keystone Party candidate Joseph P. Soloski with no support.

F&M surveyed 517 registered voters — 235 Democrats, 210 Republicans, and 72 independents — between Sept. 19 and 25. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

Berwood Yost, the poll director, said Oz consolidated his support among Republicans, largely based on television advertising campaigns that portray Fetterman as soft on crime.

"I think the advertising has reminded Republicans what's at stake," Yost said. "They've started to come home. And, you know, now it's now it's quite a race."

In August, more than three in five Republicans (62%) supported Oz; in the latest poll, it's almost four in five (78%). Far fewer Republicans (16%) said they would choose someone else or said they don't know whom to support than in August (29%).

F&M's poll almost mirrors the results of a recent statewide poll by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, the other independent state-based pollster that regularly surveys state voters. Muhlenberg had Fetterman up 49% to 44% and Shapiro ahead 53% to 42% in a poll of 420 voters between Sept. 13 and 16 with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 points.

Another poll, by the Marist College Institute of Public Opinion, showed Fetterman ahead by a larger margin, 51% to 41%, but Shapiro ahead by about the same, 53% to 40%. Marist surveyed 1,242 voters between Sept. 19 and 22 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Besides the head-to-head matchup, the F&M poll shows other signs of a clear surge in Oz's direction.

Fetterman is still seen more favorably than Oz. Two in five voters (40%) see Fetterman somewhat or strongly favorably compared to about a third (34%) who view Oz that way, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Oz's favorability is up about 7 points, and Fetterman dropped 3 points since August. An even larger larger difference showed up, too: A lot more voters see Fetterman strongly or somewhat unfavorably in this poll (46% versus 36% in August) and fewer voters see Oz unfavorably (53% in September, 57% in August).

More than half of voters (51%) think Fetterman better understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians than Oz (29%) and more than two in five voters (44%) think Fetterman is closer to their views on social issues like gay marriage and abortion than Oz (33%). Both are about the same as August, but Oz has overtaken Fetterman on another important question.

Almost two in five voters (39%) think Oz will change government policies in a way that will improve their economic situation with only about a third (32%) saying that about Fetterman. Last month, Fetterman led that question (37% to 33%).

Fetterman has led in polling throughout the race, but Yost pointed out about 13% of voters either named another candidate or said they won't know whom to support.

"That's large enough that it's anyone's game. I mean, nobody's at 50% yet in this race, unlike the gubernatorial race (with leaners included). And so I think there's an opportunity here (for Oz)," Yost said.

Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com; 570-348-9147; @BorysBlogTT on Twitter.