Poll: Republicans think Trump will win — but if he doesn’t, this is who they think will be the nominee

Republican voters believe former President Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination, but most think there’s a chance another candidate could still win.

A new Deseret News/HarrisX poll of Republican voters nationwide shows that an overwhelming 86% of GOP voters believe the former president will win the party’s nomination for president in 2024. But when asked if they think there is a chance of another GOP candidate winning, 16% say there is a “strong chance” and 49% say there is “some chance.”

When those voters are asked which candidates have a chance at beating Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the top pick, with 51% of respondents choosing him. Thirty-one percent said former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a chance and 29% said entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

The poll was conducted Nov. 21-22 among 1,012 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Six weeks remain until the Iowa Republican caucuses, the first contest of the 2024 election cycle. At present, Trump maintains a 40-percentage-point lead over his closest challengers in national polls; in Iowa, he leads by over 20 points.

Of the remaining candidates polling above 3% nationally — DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Trump and Chris Christie — four will participate in Wednesday’s debate in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Trump will once again skip the debate.

In the Deseret News/HarrisX poll, more than 8 in 10 Republicans said they believe Trump will win the primary, but among voters generally, only 6 in 10 said so. Of those voters who said they do not think Trump will win, Haley was the favorite; 36% of those respondents, including 40% of independents, said they believe Haley will be the GOP nominee. Twenty-nine percent said DeSantis will win and 17% said Christie.

In recent weeks, the Republican field has continued to shrink. Tim Scott dropped out shortly after the November debate and withheld from endorsing another candidate; Mike Pence did the same in late October. On Monday, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum suspended his campaign.

Respondents to the Deseret News/HarrisX poll want to see the field narrow even further. When given a list of current candidates and asked who they think should continue and which should drop out, most Republicans said Christie (58%) and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (54%) should exit the race.

Most Republicans (65%) want to see DeSantis stay in the race, followed by Haley (47%). Statistically identical portions of Republican voters want to see Ramaswamy stay in the race (36%) as want to see him drop out (34%).

If Trump wins the nomination, Haley is GOP voters’ top pick to be his running mate.

Correction: An earlier version of this story said Chris Christie would not be on the Republican debate stage on Wednesday, Dec. 6, but he did make the cut to participate.