Poll reveals battle lines in CD1 race. Who has the winning message?

PROVIDENCE — Biff. Bop. Might this be a review of what's to come on the campaign trail between now and primary day?

A 14-minute political opinion poll this weekend provided a window into the potential pitches, attack lines − and vulnerabilities − of the presumptive frontrunners in the crowded race for Rhode Island's open 1st Congressional seat.

Though there are 22 declared Democratic candidates in the race, the poll conducted this weekend for an unnamed candidate by a firm identified as Luce Research named only eight and then drilled down to potential attack lines against former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg and investor Don Carlson while testing potential campaign pitches for Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos.

All three of the candidates featured most prominently denied responsibility for the poll.

Carlson spokeswoman Chelsea DeCesare said: "We did not commission this poll and don’t have a comment on the messaging." Matos spokesman Evan England said: "Not our poll."

Regunberg told The Journal: "This definitely was not our poll, and we're going to continue running a positive campaign."

Added state Rep. Cherie Cruz, a Regunberg supporter who was one of those polled over the weekend: "It was disheartening to hear these misleading and dishonest attacks. Candidates for office should run on their record, not go negative to distract from it...I'm proud to support Aaron BECAUSE OF HIS RECORD."

"Now I know it's a long way off," the survey begins, "but thinking about the September 2023 Democratic primary... if the election were held today would you vote for Marvin Abney, Gabe Amo, Don Carlson, Sandra Cano, Sabina Matos, John Goncalves, Nick Autiello or Aaron Regunberg or would you be supporting some other candidate?"

Next: the issues question.

"Which two of the following issues are the most important to you as you decide who to support in the Democratic primary to replace David Cicilline...Lowering the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs? Protecting democracy? Protecting abortion rights? Reducing climate change? Dealing with inflation and cost of housing? Defending Social Security and Medicare? Protecting LGBTQ-plus people and combating racism and reducing guns and gun violence?"

Then comes an introduction to five of the candidates that largely reflects the way the candidates describe themselves, and a chance to give each one a positive to negative rating:

"Aaron Regunberg is a community organizer and former state legislator. He founded the Providence Student Union to fight for education justice. As a state legislator, he passed law[s] to give some people paid sick leave, higher wages, and access to renewable energy. As a lawyer, he support[ed] cases holding big oil responsible for their environmental crimes. He has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders' organization, 'Our Revolution,' and the Rhode Island Working Families Party."

"Sandra Cano was born in Colombia and immigrated to this country with her family in 2000. She understands what it's like for working women to balance work and family and ha[s] experienced gun violence firsthand. She served on the Pawtucket City Council and is in the Rhode Island State Senate where she [has] focused on expanding access to early childhood education, improving teacher pay, and has made dealing with our mental health crisis a top priority."

"Don Carlson is a Harvard trained lawyer with a depth of professional and personal experience. He served as a director for many high growth technology, renewable energy, and not-for-profit organizations. Taught graduate and undergraduate courses and worked as the legislative director for Congressman Joseph Kennedy and Chief of Staff for Congressman James Hines. Carlson will continue to represent the LGBTQ-plus community, and he has been endorsed by the LGBTQ-plus Victory Fund."

And finally: "Sabina Matos is the first woman of color to serve as lieutenant governor. Matos immigrated to this country from the Dominican Republic when she was 20. Work[ed] hard to learn English. Started work at a clothing factory and ultimately ran for public office as a single mother. As lieutenant governor she fought to lower housing costs in Rhode Island, reduce gun violence and ban assault weapons. She is endorsed by national abortion groups for her unwavering commitment to protecting the right to choose."

"And lastly, Gabe Almo is the son of Ghanaian and Liberian immigrants. He was raised in Pawtucket...worked for both the Obama administration and the Raimondo administration. He recently served as one of President Joe Biden's deputy directors, where he help[ed] state and local leaders across the country access the resources available to them because of the Biden administration's historic legislative successes."

Next came the potential attack lines and the question: do any of these these digs raise "very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind?"

Here's one: "Matos says she supports abortion rights, but she donated campaign funding to at least four anti-choice candidates, including the former president of the Rhode Island State Senate." (The statement alludes in part to a $100 contribution by Matos to then-Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed in 2016. )

Matos has not denied the donations, but her spokesman said Sunday: "Sabina’s record on choice and reproductive freedom is unimpeachable, as evidenced by her endorsement from EMILYs List.")

Then these two hits on Regunberg:

"A group of five progressive female former candidates and officeholders criticized [Regunberg] saying he never worked a normal job in his life and was making it harder for progressive women to advance." (The reference: a blistering attack by one-time candidates and officeholders affiliated with the Rhode Island Political Cooperative, a group often at the center of recent progressive quarrels.)

"Although he claims to be for working people, [Regunberg] voted for a state budget with disastrous cuts in Medicaid, supported a bill targeting the homeless, and even supported an anti-abortion, pro-gun candidate for Speaker of the R.I. House of Representatives." (The reference: then-Rep. Regunberg voted for then-Speaker Nicholas Mattiello.)

And then this: "[Carlson] may say the right things, but he is another rich CEO who made his wealth as an executive at the powerful Wall Street firm, Goldman Sachs. Wall Street already has too much power in Washington, and we don't need another politician who will carry their water at the expense of regular people." (Carlson worked at Goldman Sachs for close to five years, between 2000-2005, his last as a chief of staff in the legal department, according to his LinkedIn page.)

"What concerns you the most? Matos [gave] money to and supported pro-life elected officials: Regunberg supported cuts to Medicaid and blocked progress for women or Carlson will be a voice for Wall Street?"

Next come a series of campaign pitches for Matos, in fact − four in a row − followed by the question; "very convincing, somewhat convincing, [a] little convincing, or not at all convincing?" Among them:

"Matos pushed for an historic investment in affordable housing, so working families could deal with the rising inflation and housing costs... Matos [would oppose] any cuts to Social Security and Medicare in Congress...Matos worked hand in hand with Governor McKee to reduce the scourge of gun violence by banning high-capacity magazines and increasing the age at which someone can purchase a gun to 21.

"As Congresswoman, she will fight to finally ban assault weapons in this country."

And finally: "Like many families in this part of Rhode Island, Sabina Matos' family moved to this country to [have] a better life. She worked at a clothing factory, worked hard to learn English, and got by using electronic pocket translator. She's running ... to help other people achieve a better life, including making housing more affordable, protecting reproductive rights, and pushing for strong gun safety laws."

"Convincing?"

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: A 14-minute opinion poll conducted by Luce Research opens a window in the highly contested race.