Poll sees Shapiro favorability rise even with faltering Pa. budget process

Aug. 25—Public opinion results are promising for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as nearly half of the registered voters reached by Franklin & Marshall pollsters say he's doing an "excellent" or "good" job as governor.

The August 2023 Franklin & Marshall College Poll saw 47% of respondents give Shapiro high marks for his performance seven months into his first four-year term. That's up 4 points from an April poll, the highest approval rating at this early point in a governor's first term since Tom Ridge eclipsed 60%.

The survey was conducted from Aug. 9-20 by the college's Center for Opinion Research. There were 723 registered Pennsylvania voters: 324 Democrats, 297 Republicans, 102 independents. The sample error is 4.5 percentage points.

Favorability was largely carried by Democrats, with 75% rating Shapiro's performance as excellent or good, though more than 1 in 5 Republicans, or 22%, shared that feeling. For independents, 30% gave Shapiro high marks.

"The governor's job approval rating increased despite the state budget impasse, perhaps because he was less likely to be blamed for the impasse than the Legislature. One in five (20%) registered voters thought the missed budget deadline was mostly the governor's responsibility, one in five (20%) blamed House Democrats, and one in three (32%) blamed Senate Republicans," a summary of the poll findings states.

The Shapiro administration has championed record spending on public schools and universal free breakfast for all public school students as well as an expansion of rent and property tax rebates for senior citizens and others, all included within the new 2024 budget.

His administration has also worked to streamline the frequently maligned permit approval process within state agencies, removed college degree requirements for most commonwealth jobs and oversaw the reopening of I-95 following a bridge collapse within just 12 days — a temporary fix that figured to take several months.

However, the first budget of Shapiro's term is still unsettled. The state Senate returns next week to renew work on code bills authorizing certain spending that needs legislative approval. His decision to line-item veto $100 million for school vouchers roiled Republicans in the state Senate and House, casting a cloud over the potential approval of funds for priority programs like stipends for student teachers or refunding the Whole Home Repair program.

Fewer bills signed than predecessors at same point

The Commonwealth Foundation, a Harrisburg-based conservative think tank, compared Shapiro's first six months to prior governors and found a wide disparity in bills approved or the lack thereof.

Pennsylvania's General Assembly is divided. Republicans hold the Senate and Democrats hold the House but with a recent resignation, the voting split is presently even at 101-101. The slim majority and partisan differences across both chambers subverted progress in the current legislative session from the outset and few bills have made it to Shapiro's desk for his signature.

The group's analysis found that 15 bills — 6 new laws, 9 spending bills — passed so far during Shapiro's term. A post-analysis bill-signing raised the total to 16, adding another bill that became law. His predecessor, former governor Tom Wolf, had a combined 48 bills signed through the first six months of his first term; 87 bills signed at the same point in his second term.

All prior governors dating to 1975 had more bills signed and most were working with a divided government. While the partisan dynamics can't be replicated, exactly, the Commonwealth Foundation noted seven of the gubernatorial terms studied saw the House majority at three seats or less.

Polls on U.S. senate race and presidential election

The public opinion poll by Franklin & Marshall looked beyond the governor's office.

About 1 in 3 respondents, or 31%, gave U.S. Sen. Bob Casey a rating of excellent or good on his job performance — lower than the 43% who felt the same in October 2018 prior to his previous election cycle. Casey is up for reelection next year.

Roughly the same result, or 30%, felt the same about the job performance of President Joe Biden. That's up from 27% in the April poll. Pollsters said the increase at this point in a president's first term is normal. But, they also noted the rating is lower than that of former presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama at this point in their first terms.

Head-to-head, the poll found Biden leads Trump just slightly, 42% to 40%. It's notable that many respondents were interested in an alternative to both candidates.

"The state's registered voters do not have a favorable impression of the former President (Trump) — he is viewed more unfavorably (64%) than favorably (34%) by the state's voters. These ratings are lower now than they were prior to the 2020 election (40% favorable, 57% unfavorable in September 2020). Nearly three in five (58%) registered voters think that Mr. Trump's attempt to remain in power after the 2020 election was a serious crime," the poll summary reads.

As to the respondents' feelings about their own personal finances, there was improvement. About 2 in 5, or 39%, feel they're worse off than a year ago. That's down from 46% in April. More say they're better off financially at this point than last year, 15% compared to 11%. Pessimism remains about Pennsylvania's direction — 2 in 5, or 39%, feel it's headed in the right direction, up from 32% in April. The economy, unemployment, high costs for gas and utilities are all viewed as important issues.