Poll: Shapiro's approval rating climbs despite budget impasse

Aug. 24—A new poll shows Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro's approval rating climbed despite the state budget impasse, with nearly half of Pennsylvania registered voters believing he's doing an "excellent" or "good" job.

President Joe Biden's job approval rating in the state is considerably lower, with just 30% of respondents endorsing his performance as excellent or good, according to the most recent Franklin & Marshall College Poll released Wednesday to the newspaper. That's a slight improvement from April, but remains lower than President Donald Trump's and President Barack Obama's Pennsylvania job approval ratings at the same point in their presidencies.

Trump continues to lead the Republican field in Pennsylvania as he mounts a 2024 reelection campaign in the face of multiple criminal indictments, though the majority of Pennsylvania registered voters do not have a favorable impression of the former GOP president, the poll also found.

Shapiro, meanwhile, is viewed more favorably (56%) than unfavorably (26%) by state voters. His 47% job approval rating, up from 43% in April, is the highest for a Pennsylvania governor at this point in their first term since Republican Gov. Tom Ridge.

Berwood Yost, the F&M poll director, attributed Shapiro's approval increase partly to his handling of the Interstate 95 collapse in Philadelphia in early June. The governor received "a lot of positive publicity" for the response, with an interim roadway reopening in less than two weeks.

"That happened between our last poll and this poll, and I think the amount of positive news coverage he received through that undoubtedly helped," Yost said. "On the other side, I thought about the budget impasse as being almost an invisible event — that we knew it happened, but we weren't quite sure what was happening, and there weren't direct impacts."

Only 20% of voters thought the missed budget deadline was Shapiro's responsibility, while 20% blamed state House Democrats and 32% blamed state Senate Republicans, the poll shows.

Finances, economy

Despite Shapiro's strong showing, the poll shows many voters remain dissatisfied with their personal finances and pessimistic about the direction of the state.

Still, those numbers are improving.

Findings show 39% of respondents said they're "worse off" financially than they were a year ago, compared to 46% in April. Only 15% reported being better off now than a year ago, up from 11%.

Nearly two in five voters (39%) believe the state is "headed in the right direction," compared to 32% in April, the poll found.

Biden, Casey

The poll also shows registered Pennsylvania voters view Biden more unfavorably (58%) than favorably (40%), though his 30% job approval rating is up slightly from 27% in April.

Broken down along partisan lines, 18% of Democratic respondents said Biden is doing an "excellent" job as president, compared to just 1% of Republicans. The vast majority of GOP respondents (86%) rated his performance as poor, compared to 16% of Democrats.

Yost, who expects Biden's approval rating to climb as he shifts more into campaign mode, said he believes the president's recent efforts to tell the "economic story of his presidency" may have helped him. It's normal for an incumbent president's approval rating to begin increasing at this point in their first term, he said.

"But I do think there's genuine concerns," Yost said. "You can see it in the number of people who, say, aren't wild about President Biden in terms of the personal favorabilities. I think there's concerns about his age. Frankly, I think he has some concerns among progressives. We see a bit more tepid support out of Philly and Pittsburgh, and I think Shapiro does a bit better with those kinds of progressive voters than Biden does."

Also running for reelection in 2024 is Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, whom registered Pennsylvania voters view more favorably (39%) than unfavorably (30%).

Nearly a third (31%) of those voters believe Casey is doing an excellent or good job as senator, the poll found.

Trump

Trump, the front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, faces numerous criminal charges for efforts to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss. Against that backdrop, pollsters asked respondents if Trump's actions to remain in power after the 2020 election amounted to "serious crimes."

The results largely broke down along party lines, with 89% of Democrats answering yes and 69% of Republicans answering no. Overall, 58% of registered voters think Trump's attempt to remain in power was a serious crime.

Pennsylvania voters also view Trump more unfavorably (64%) than favorably (34%). In September 2020, prior to the last presidential election, 40% of voters viewed Trump favorably, compared to 57% unfavorably.

Nonetheless, Trump leads the Republican Pennsylvania primary field by 18 points over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his closest rival in the state. Trump is ahead of DeSantis 39% to 21%; 38-year-old entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is in third with 9%, the poll found.

Contact the writer: jhorvath@timesshamrock.com; 570-348-9141; @jhorvathTT on Twitter.