New poll shows California Senate contest still in flux

Rep. Adam Schiff holds a slight lead in California’s race for the U.S. Senate, while the battle for the second spot is fiercely competitive, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

Schiff leads the field with the support of 21 percent of likely voters, followed by Democratic Rep. Kate Porter with 17 percent and Republican and former Dodgers player Steve Garvey with 13 percent. Given the margin of error, they are in a close contest for second place.

Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee trails her major opponents, with the support of 9 percent of likely voters, according to the poll. But a poll last month from POLITICO|Morning Consult showed Lee also in a dead heat for second place.

The top-two primary on March 5 will determine which candidates advance to the November general election — and the IGS poll suggests the contest remains in flux as the campaigns prepare for ballots to hit voters’ mailboxes in early February.

Porter and Schiff, both from the greater Los Angeles region, launched their first TV ads of the campaign this week. Each has spent nearly $1 million targeting Democratic voters, especially women, in the San Francisco-San Jose-Oakland media market. Lee, who hails from Oakland, doesn’t have the money to compete on the airwaves.

Whether two Democrats advance or Garvey snags a second-place spot will determine the competitiveness of the future campaign, which could result in an expensive intraparty war or a lopsided Democrat v. GOP contest in deep-blue California.

The IGS poll was conducted Jan. 4-8, surveying 4,470 likely voters in both English and Spanish. It has an estimated margin of error of 2 percentage points.