Late poll shows Daniel Cameron padding lead over KY GOP field

A poll released on the cusp of election day showed that Attorney General Daniel Cameron is still the clear front-runner in the race for the GOP nomination for governor.

Released by Emerson College and WDKY/Fox56 television station on Sunday, the survey of 500 “very likely” Republican voters showed Cameron with 33% support compared to former ambassador Kelly Craft with 17.6% and Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles with 13.2%.

The poll result indicated that Cameron has a more commanding lead over the field than was shown when the same group conducted a poll of 900 “very likely” GOP voters in early April. The poll then showed that Cameron held just a six percentage point lead over Craft, and that Quarles secured 15% of the vote before getting up on television.

With only 500 voters surveyed, compared to the last poll’s 900, the margin of error is +/- 4.3%.

Here are the results.

• Daniel Cameron: 33%

• Kelly Craft: 17.6%

• Ryan Quarles: 13.2%

• Undecided: 12.8%

• Eric Deters: 9.7%

• Mike Harmon: 4.4%

• Alan Keck: 3.1%

• Jacob Clark: 1.6%

• David Cooper: 1.6%

• Johnny Rice: 1.2%

• Robert Devore: 0.8%

• Robbie Smith: 0.6%

• Dennis Ray Ormerod: 0.5%

The previous poll showed Cameron with only 30% of the vote and Craft with 24%. However, the poll was conducted at a time when Cameron and a political action committee (PAC) had just gotten up on television. Cameron’s PAC has run several ads, as well as direct mail, critical of Craft since then.

Also, several debates have taken place in the interim.

Craft leads the pack in terms of money spent on the race by far. As of two weeks ago, her campaign had raised more than $10.8 million, with well over $9 million of that coming from her own pocketbook. Her husband Joe Craft, a billionaire coal entrepreneur, was the primary source of funding for a PAC supporting her via a $1.5 million donation.

Cameron and Quarles have raised over $1.4 million and $1.2 million, respectively.

A PAC supporting Cameron had raised $2.7 million as of two weeks ago, with most of that coming from an untraceable ‘dark money’ group well-known for funding attempts to reshape American courts to become more conservative. The group, The Concord Fund, also has ties to U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, R-KY.

One consistent theme throughout the scant available public polling has been the rise of Northern Kentucky conservative activist Eric Deters. Having largely self-funded his campaign with close to $800,000 loaned, Deters has risen from polling at 2% in January, 6% last month and nearly 10% in the recent survey.

In terms of favorability, Cameron led the pack with a 63%/21% favorable/unfavorable rating among those survey. Craft had relatively high unfavorability, posting a 46%/37% rating. Many voters were unsure about Quarles or didn’t know him, as the commissioner of agriculture garnered a 39%/15% rating, while 46% were unsure or didn’t know him.

Perhaps linked to the good news for Cameron was a strong poll result for former president Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 presidential nomination. Trump has endorsed Cameron, participating in a brief ‘tele-rally’ for the attorney general’s campaign on Sunday night.

70% of the respondents said they would support Trump for president in 2024, compared to second-place likely candidate Ron DeSantis at 14%.

At least one Quarles supporter was sharply critical of the poll, which was released less than 48 hours before polls close on Tuesday. Tres Watson, a former campaign manager for Quarles and longtime GOP operative in the state, said on Twitter that the state was done a “disservice” by the poll.

“Their previous poll was a sample size of 900, this one is of 500. It’s a lesser poll that they’re releasing days before the election. Next, there is a zero percent chance this is accurate. It flies in the face of all the logic we know about political campaigns, political spending, and how voters digest spending. If you believe Quarles’ (percentage) dropped after finally going on air, I have beach property in Arizona to sell you,” Watson said.