Poll shows DeSantis edging out Trump among Florida Republicans in imaginary 2024 match-up

A poll issued on Tuesday morning said the two most popular Republicans in Florida, and arguably in the country, would be in a virtual dead heat if the 2024 presidential primary were held in the Sunshine State today.

Pollsters from the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida found Gov. Ron DeSantis edging out former President Trump, 47% to 45%, among registered Republican voters in Florida. The survey also said 7% of those asked chose a different candidate.

The poll questioned 1,624 registered Florida voters and had an overall, plus or minus 3.4 percentage-point margin of error. But it was not clear if the same margin applied to the smaller sampling of Republicans who were asked specifically about Trump and DeSantis.

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The survey was conducted Aug. 8-12. That timeframe was just as news broke of an FBI search of Trump's Mar-a-Lago compound in Palm Beach and in the wake of nine televised hearings this summer by a U.S. House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

“DeSantis and Trump are the two most popular Republican names being discussed for 2024 and DeSantis is edging him out in their home state,” said Michael Binder, the polling lab's faculty director and a UNF professor of political science. “People are split on whether Trump and DeSantis are friends or merely acquaintances, I guess we’ll really find out after the midterms and the 2024 race starts to heat up.”

Are Trump and DeSantis friends or foes?

Intriguingly, the Public Opinion Research Lab survey also asked respondents to characterize the relationship between the two GOP figures, who have been at the center of speculation about their 2024 ambitions and potential rivalry for about a year.

Some 47% said they believed the two were "acquaintances," 42% said they are "friends" and just 8% described them as "enemies." While the governor and ex-POTUS have not appeared together in public for sometime, they were stalwart allies during Trump's presidency.

While serving as a congressman from Northeast Florida, DeSantis appeared on cable network shows alternately championing and defending Trump. A Trump tweet endorsing DeSantis' gubernatorial aspirations in 2018 catapulted him into the Florida governor's mansion.

From 2019 through 2020, the two appeared frequently at rallies, Mar-a-Lago and other localities.

Whoever is the GOP nominee could face a still debilitated President Joe Biden, if the incumbent Democrat seeks re-election. Biden's approval rating is at a weak 38%, in the state, according to the poll.

But while Trump remains popular among Florida GOP ranks, he is racking up high negative ratings nationally in other polls. A Morning Consult/Politico survey found Trump with a 55% disapproval rating, slightly lower than the 58% disapproval rating in a YouGov/The Economist survey. Both results were published last week.

Nonetheless, Trump fans rallying in support of the former president in West Palm Beach on Saturday said Trump and his Make America Great Again, or MAGA, effort has backing.

"The amount of support, the MAGA movement, as president Trump said, it's just the largest in history," said Max Morgan, 49, of Fort Lauderdale. "And you haven't seen that amount of support for a president who's not in the White House two years after he left the White House, asking for him to come back."

But a major GOP summit of party leaders, candidates and donors held in Hollywood last month featured DeSantis, but did not include Trump in the line-up of speakers. Asked about the former president's absence, some attendees responded that Trump was "not on the ballot," while others remarked that he "has too much baggage" and that the Sunshine Summit that weekend was "a DeSantis event."

Palm Beach Post reporters Stephany Matat and Jasmine Fernandez contributed to this report.

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at the Palm Beach Daily News, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Poll of Florida Republican voters shows DeSantis edging out Trump