New poll shows Markwayne Mullin leads T.W. Shannon, tight GOP race for Oklahoma treasurer

After a low-key runoff campaign period, U.S. Rep. Markwayne Mullin has a 19-point lead over Oklahoma City banker T.W. Shannon in the Republican race to succeed U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe, according to a new poll that shows the only tight GOP contest is for state treasurer.

Mullin was favored by 46% of the Republican voters surveyed, with another 3% leaning toward him, according to the poll by Amber Integrated, of Oklahoma City. Shannon had the support of 27%, with another 4% leaning toward him. The undecided portion was 20%.

The poll was taken from Aug. 11-15 among 684 Republicans likely to vote in the Aug. 23 runoff. The margin of error is 3.8%.

Mullin, 45, a fifth-term congressman from eastern Oklahoma, nearly captured the nomination outright in the June 28 primary, winning 43.6 of the vote, and has since been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. That endorsement has been the main feature of his broadcast ads. Gov. Kevin Stitt endorsed Mullin on Wednesday.

Shannon, 44, the former speaker of the Oklahoma House, received 17.5% of the primary vote and has lacked the funds to blanket the airwaves with ads. He has been traveling the state, holding multiple campaign events each day, and has avoided the negative attacks that characterize many underdog campaigns.

Pollster Jackson Lisle, a partner in Amber Integrated, said Wednesday, “Former President Trump’s endorsement has likely allowed Congressman Mullin to shore up his lead in the race. Sixty-three percent of likely Republican voters are inclined to support a candidate who is endorsed by Trump.”

Inhofe, 87, who has been in the Senate since 1994, announced in February that he would step aside when the current Congress ends early next year. Inhofe won reelection in 2020 and his successor will have four years left on the term.

Former U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn, an Oklahoma City Democrat, will face the GOP nominee on Nov. 8, along with Libertarian Robert Murphy and independent Ray Woods.

GOP voters go to polls Tuesday to cast ballots in four statewide office races

Oklahoma Republicans also will pick nominees on Tuesday for state treasurer, labor commissioner, corporation commissioner and state schools superintendent. Early in-person voting begins Thursday at county election boards.

In the GOP runoff for corporation commissioner, the Amber Integrated poll shows state Sen. Kim David, of Porter, leading former state Rep. Todd Thomsen, of Ada, by 11 points, though the undecided vote is 41%. According to the poll, David had the support of 32% of respondents, with another 4% leaning her way, while Thomsen had 21%, with another 2% leaning toward him.

The seat is open, as Commissioner Dana Murphy was barred by term limits from running again.

In the race to succeed Treasurer Randy McDaniel, a Republican, state Rep. Todd Russ and former state Sen. Clark Jolley were within the margin of error. Russ, of Cordell, had 26%, with another 2% leaning his way, while Jolley, of Edmond, had 23%, with another 4% leaning his way. However, 46% of respondents were undecided in the treasurer's race.

Incumbent Labor Commissioner Leslie Osborn, seeking a second term, had a 20-point lead over state Rep. Sean Roberts, with 36% of Republican voters still undecided in the race. Osborn had 39%, with another 3% leaning toward her, while Roberts had 19% and another 2% leaning his way. Among respondents, 36% were undecided.

In the GOP race to succeed state schools Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, Ryan Walters, Stitt’s education secretary, had 36%, with another 4% leaning toward him, while Shawnee Superintendent April Grace had 22% and 4% leaning her way. More than one in three respondents, 34%, were undecided in the superintendent's race.

Lisle said he would caution against the idea that some of the races may not be competitive, noting that turnout is typically low for runoffs, which makes them hard to predict. He said runoff turnout tends to skew toward older voters, giving the edge to candidates who appeal to that sector.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Poll gives Markwayne Mullin lead, shows tight GOP race for treasurer