Poll shows McKee, Gorbea in 'statistical dead heat,' ahead of Democratic primary for governor

PROVIDENCE – With four weeks to go before Rhode Island Democrats choose their nominee for governor, Gov. Dan McKee is holding onto a hair-thin lead over his closest competitor, Nellie Gorbea, according to the latest WPRI poll.

If the Sept. 13 Democratic primary were held today:

McKee would capture 28% of the primary vote; two-term Secretary of State Gorbea 25%, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes 14%, former Secretary of State Matt Brown 8%, and community activist Dr. Luis Daniel Munoz 1%.

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What do the latest RI governor's race poll numbers tell us?

Here's one way to look at the result: with a 4.9% potential margin for error, McKee and Gorbea are still statistically tied, as they were when Fleming & Associates last polled the race for WPRI and Roger Williams University back in May.

But the number of undecided voters has shrunk from 37% to 21% since then.

In that span, Foulkes – a political unknown until she announced her run for governor in October – has more than doubled her potential share of the vote, from 6% in May to 14%, after blanketing the airwaves with $1.4 million in TV ads.

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And the poll shows that the 71-year-old McKee is the clear favorite among a particularly reliable contingent of primary voters: those age 60 and up. More than 69% in that demographic view him very-to-somewhat favorably, compared with 46% in that group with a similarly high opinion of Gorbea. She does better than McKee among younger voters, but not by much.

What, besides McKee's age, might explain this phenomenon?

Pollster Joseph Fleming does not discount the possibility that McKee's first TV ad – featuring the governor and his 94-year-old mother, Willa McKee, over a game of cards and coffee milk – "resonated"  with Rhode Island's older voters.

But with four weeks to go, Fleming says: "None of them have run away with it."

The poll of 405 likely Democratic primary voters statewide – including 252 in R.I.'s 2nd Congressional District – was conducted last week between Aug. 7-10 by Fleming & Associates for WPRI and Roger Williams University.

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Fleming also polled the race for lieutenant governor and found:

The McKee-appointed incumbent, Sabina Matos, well ahead at this point with 23% of the Democratic primary vote compared with 14% for state Rep. Deborah Ruggiero and 9% for state Sen. Cynthia Mendes – with a whopping 51% still undecided.

In the crowded primary contest for Rhode Island's open 2nd District congressional seat:

State Treasurer Seth Magaziner retained a commanding lead over his five competitors, with 37% of the potential vote.

Magaziner's closest competitors were Rhode Island newcomer Sarah Morgenthau and former state Rep. David Segal with 8% of the potential vote, but more than one out of three of those surveyed (37%) are still undecided.

The other candidates in the race barely registered: Joy Fox with 4% of the vote, Omar Bah with 3% and Spencer Dickinson with 1%.

How do Rhode Island voters feel about the governor's race?

Among the takeaways in the hard-fought governor's race:

More than half of Rhode Island voters – 53% – have a favorable opinion of incumbent McKee, despite the various controversies swirling around him. That compares to the 23% – of those willing to state their opinion – who do not view him favorably.

By way of comparison: 46% think favorably of two-term Secretary of State Gorbea, and 33% of political newcomer Foulkes.

More than half of those polled (53%) indicated they were solidly behind their favored candidate today – or unlikely to change – which is significant given the start of early in-person voting next week (Aug. 24).

On the other hand, 42% of those willing to share their opinion said there is a "good chance" they will change their minds between now and primary day.

'I expect to see a lot of advertising'

To Fleming, that means: "It is still a statistical dead heat because [McKee and Gorbea] are still within the margin of error.... but there is a big bloc of voters that a candidate can get to move .... with the right messaging over the next four weeks.

So "I think this race is still very moveable," he said.

"If one candidate can grab some momentum, they could just take it and run. But up to this point, nobody has. All the polling data that I have seen, the candidates are all pretty much bunched together."

None of them have really grabbed the voters and pushed the numbers over 30%." he continued.

"I expect to see a lot of advertising. I expect to see a lot of independent expenditures over the next four weeks. I expect the campaigns to really get into high gear. But I have been saying that for the last couple of months."

First out of the gate with a comment on the newly released poll was the McKee campaign.

"As we've said before, Governor McKee does not put too much stock in polls, but today's numbers are an encouraging indicator that Rhode Islanders are liking the progress being made under Governor McKee," said spokeswoman Alana O'Hare.

"Drivers aren't receiving their usual car tax bill. Veterans, seniors and families are looking forward to well-deserved tax relief; and workers are back to work at good-paying jobs. Governor McKee will continue doing what he has always done -- showing leadership when it matters most."

Gorbea's campaign manager Dana Walton said: “This Democratic primary is coming down to a choice between one of the country’s least popular governors, Dan McKee, and Secretary Gorbea, who has spent the last 30 years as a community leader and has served for eight years as an accomplished Secretary of State.

"Governor McKee has had 18 months to prove himself in office. Instead –we are back to the days of Rhode Island making headlines with FBI investigations. We can do better." 

Added Foulkes spokeswoman Audrey Lucas: “This is anyone's race.

"The fact that two current statewide office holders – the Governor and Secretary of State – are still stuck in the twenties is proof that Rhode Islanders are sick of the status quo and career politicians. With 21% of voters still undecided and 42% of decided voters open to changing their minds, debates are going to have a tremendous impact..[and]  we are confident that once voters see Helena in action, they will move to our campaign." 

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Brown spokesman AJ. Braverman said: "This race remains wide open. Two of our opponents have held statewide office for eight years and three have been advertising on TV for at least a month, but according to pollster Joe Fleming, “their efforts do not seem to be exciting voters very much.”

"Tomorrow our campaign will launch our first ad, making our case for why Matt Brown and Senator Cynthia Mendes should be the next Governor and Lieutenant Governor." 

Added Munoz: "“While polls are statistically weak, and biased, it would seem that undecided voters will dictate the outcome of this race, and it’s clear that they aren’t happy with insiders, or candidates that take the same old reagonomics style of approach to economic development.

"Voters will see that there is only candidate who will consistently fight for them, and that me.”

Pollsters cover their bets by assigning a potential margin of error to every poll that, in this case, means the percentages for each statewide candidate could be up – or down – by as much as 4.9%, and for the 2nd Congressional District candidates by as much as 6.2%.

Pew Research explains the concept this way: "Because surveys only talk to a sample of the population, we know that the result probably won’t exactly match the “true” result that we would get if we interviewed everyone in the population.

"The margin of sampling error describes how close we can reasonably expect a survey result to fall." 

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This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Poll results for RI governor's race show Dan McKee, Nellie Gorbea close