New poll shows Ronchetti with slim lead over Gov. Lujan Grisham

Oct. 26—ALBUQUERQUE — Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham celebrated her 63rd birthday Monday and received an unwelcome surprise.

A new poll released 15 days before Election Day showed the Democrat trailing her Republican challenger for the first time this campaign season.

The poll by Georgia-based Trafalgar Group showed Mark Ronchetti with 46.6 percent of the vote, compared with Lujan Grisham's 45.5 percent.

In addition to being the first public poll to show Ronchetti in the lead, it also is the first to show the two candidates running so close.

U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, who attended an event with Lujan Grisham and Vice President Kamala Harris at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque on Tuesday, predicted Lujan Grisham would emerge the winner nonetheless.

"Look, across America and across the West, we're seeing races tighten," he said. "It shouldn't surprise us that that happens. It occurs every election as you get closer to the general. I experienced that when I ran for the United States Senate two years ago."

In that election, Luján also squared off against Ronchetti, a TV weatherman turned politician who finished a close second in that three-way race. Ronchetti has catapulted his TV celebrity into a political career and has proven along the way he is a formidable fundraiser.

Although not asked specifically about the Trafalgar Group's poll on the New Mexico governor's race, Luján appeared aware of the results.

"When I ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and we won a large majority as Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, you saw the tightening occur," he said. "This is natural. But I am confident that our governor will win."

Ronchetti and his campaign expressed optimism about the most recent polling.

"We know that this race has always been close and Mark clearly has all the momentum as voters are rejecting the governor's soft on crime, last in education, and hypocritical record," Ryan Sabel, Ronchetti's communications director, wrote Tuesday in an email.

Delaney Corcoran, a spokeswoman for Lujan Grisham's reelection campaign, said the governor is in an "extremely strong position" heading into the final two weeks of the election.

"She is continuing to work every day to get out the vote," Corcoran wrote in an email.

"While her opponent has been consistently losing support over his dangerous plan to ban abortion in the state as well as his false attack ads on crime, the governor has been greeted with enthusiasm across the state as she champions her strong record delivering economic growth, historic education investments, affordable healthcare, and protecting reproductive freedom for New Mexicans," she added.

Abortion has emerged as a top issue in the governor's race following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in June overturning Roe v. Wade.

Lujan Grisham has made abortion access a centerpiece of her campaign, arguing a woman's right to choose is at stake. Ronchetti, meanwhile, has not called for an all-out ban on abortion as alleged by Democrats but a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, except in cases of rape, incest and when a mother's life is in jeopardy.

The poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 percent, showed Libertarian Karen Bedonie with 3.9 percent of the vote and 4 percent of the electorate undecided.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 19-21 with 1,077 respondents. Nearly 58 percent of respondents were white and almost 31 percent Hispanic in a state whose population is almost half Hispanic.

"These ethnicity numbers were derived using census data based on typical voting population in general elections," E. Caroline McFadden, a spokeswoman for the polling and marketing firm, wrote in an email.

Close to 48 percent of respondents were Democrats, while just over 36 percent were Republicans.

The political analysis website FiveThirtyEight, which has had Lujan Grisham ahead of Ronchetti by about 9 percent in its polling average, gives the Trafalgar Group an A-minus rating for past accuracy and methodology. The firm, started by a veteran Republican strategist, called the 2016 election in favor of former President Donald Trump but incorrectly predicted the outcome of the presidential election four years later.

Follow Daniel J. Chacón on Twitter @danieljchacon.